Monte Carlo 2/4 hand

[chim17]

The main villains in hand are:

Blind - Extreme calling station, very very very passive. Has bet/raised under 5 pots in his hours at the table. These bets were never bluffs.

CO - LAG, he had a disorder which forced him to put chips in the pot with no rhyme or reason. His recent rush has allowed him to continue this activity.

Hero is on the button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pre-flop: 5 callers, CO raises, Hero reraises, Blind and all 5 callers call. (16 sb)

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to CO who bets, Hero raises, Blind and 2 call. (18 bb)

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to hero who bets, blind, 1, and CO call. (22 bb)

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Blind bets, 1 folds, CO raises, Hero...

Comments on all streets leading up to the river appreciated.

[ThisHo]

[img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]curses the poker gods and mucks his set o' queens. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

There is just no way that none of those villains have an ace (or even a 9). There is just no way you're good here. ESPECIALLY since you have told us that BB is betting becaause he made a hand (isn't that the point of your read comments?).

Oh yeah... and its not out of the question that someone hit a flush on the turn and slow played it a touch.

BadBreak... That's Poker
ThisHo!

[private joker]

I fold too. Ironically, a Q was the last card you wanted to see on this river. Hi-ho, hi-ho, into the muck they go...

[chim17]

I folded pretty easily.. I wasn't concerned with the beat.

The rest of the hand look good? Peel one off for free on the turn perhaps?

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
The rest of the hand look good? Peel one off for free on the turn perhaps?

[/ QUOTE ]
Looks good. No way should you check this turn. There's a good chance you have the best hand and you have a big draw on top of that. If anything check the river unimproved but even that may be close.

[Yads]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks good. No way should you check this turn. There's a good chance you have the best hand and you have a big draw on top of that. If anything check the river unimproved but even that may be close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't this be a situation of check with outs bet with few or no outs?

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't this be a situation of check with outs bet with few or no outs?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. It's a situation of having a good chance of holding the best hand NOW plus having outs and probably lots of outs. This is a very easy bet.

[Yads]

I see makes sense now. What would be an example of check with outs bet with few or no outs?
Something like A K 4 7 or something like 3 to a flush with you holding no flush cards?

[ErrantNight]

fizzyizzyold.

[Derek in NYC]

Hero folds.

But let's look at the flop play, which is more interesting. On a different thread today titled "Wait till turn to raise?" (or something like that), you see an example of a misapplication of Ed Miller's principle.

This hand, by contrast, is an excellent example of a flop where you should consider waiting until the turn to raise. The flop raise does NOT protect your hand, and although you have an edge, you will often lose this hand. Here is why a turn raise is something you should have been considering.

1. The flop raise will not protect your hand. With the flop raise, you lay 19:2 odds, or roughly 9:1 for any caller. It would be correct for any gutshot and middle/bottom pair to call, as well of course, for top pair and flush/str8 draws to call. All your raise on the flop does is handcuff everyone to the pot until the river.

2. Although you have an edge with your overpair, your hand is very vulnerable. Any diamond, king, ace, ten or even queen potentially screws up your edge. Thus, although you could raise for marginal value on the flop, waiting until the turn will give you a much better sense for the value of your hand. If your edge is substantial, you can push it on the turn. If a 4th street scare card falls, you can decide what to do depending on the preceeding action.

3. The likely bettor comes from your right, with a 3-person field to your left. If you smooth call on the flop, there is a reasonable chance that a fourth street blank will result in a bet from the flop bettor. If you raise at this point, you will face the field with 2 big bets, or about 7:1 odds (assuming all the players call the CO's flop bet). At this point, getting only 7:1 odds, you protect your hand against 4 out gutshots, and 5 out bottom/middle pair hands.

As it turned out, the fourth street card was a triple threat card, creating the possibility of an overcard, a straight, and a flush, so raising here is incorrect (unless you have a read that you can bluff people off their hands by representing a flush). Notwithstanding this, you should have been thinking about playing the flop the way I described.