running a bluff. . .

tdomeski · #1 02-02-2005, 02:00 AM

i actually had a read on this opponent so i figured i'd try it. .just before we both had AKo flop was A K 6 and he bet flop I raised then he check/called me down. .Have also seen him lay down big hands to "scary" boards. . . he def. fears the "scare cards"

So here goes. .

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($199.40)
MP1 ($121)
MP2 ($204.40)
CO ($77.35)
Button ($197.15)
SB ($198)
Hero ($219.25)
UTG ($75.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 raises to $14, 5 folds, Hero calls $12, UTG calls $12.

Flop: ($43) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $20, Hero calls $20, UTG folds.

Turn: ($83) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $60, UTG+1 calls $60.

River: ($203) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $125.25

Kaz The Original · #2 02-02-2005, 02:41 AM

What hand are you trying to represent here?

mythrilfox · #3 02-02-2005, 03:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What hand are you trying to represent here?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly.

TheWorstPlayer · #4 02-02-2005, 04:56 AM

A7 obviously. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

SynSid · #5 02-02-2005, 08:40 AM

Hi, I'm new to these boards (and fairly new to 'holdem) so please don't be too harsh on me if my comments are way off the mark. Constructive criticism is obviously very welcome.

I'd place opponent on either a high PP (unlikely unless AA), a busted flush (more likely), a set that got a boat or AK/AQ. The weak flop bet from him tends to rule out a set (and would he raise from UTG+1 with a small PP anyway?).

I'd place him on either AA, KK, AK, AhQh, KhQh, 88,77, 66, 55. Other hands are possible if he's read you correctly (e.g. your pre and post-flop calls rule out any A except AhXh) or if he'll raise suited connectors out of position. There's not a lot in there that he'll fold to a bet and which beats you.

If he folds to scary boards why didn't you check-raise on the flop? Looked a pretty scary board to me. After the turn came I'd be thinking the board looked a lot less scary in his shoes - as what A could you have that would make you call pre-flop and post-flop? He *could* have AA (if he was scared of the flop so bet weak - which a lot of players do) but no way you can represent a slow-played AA - as calling that flop with AA would be suicidal.

I'd have slung a pot-size check-raise on the flop and folded if he came over the top.

The previous poster suggested (tongue in cheek i suspect) that you were trying to represent A7. I suspect you were trying to represent "a better hand than you've got" rather than anything specific.

Tilt · #6 02-02-2005, 11:26 AM

Great hand to post. I have to say after thinking it through that I think its not a great time to bluff.

First, I'd rather bluff representing a winning hand. His flat call on the turn might be weakness but it might be aces and now he is full. In which case of course you are cooked.

But assuming he hasnt got the nuts....the only hands he could be folding here are KK/QQ and AK, maybe AQ. He sounds too passive to be raising preflop with something else.

So what does he think you have? Welll, he won't put you on a diamond flush, cause no one ever puts someone on a runner runner flush. Thats what makes them such big winners. So you can't represent that IMO.

So if he is logical he can only consider you for A7 (an unlikely preflop call), a flopped straight (but I think he signaled that he ruled that out with his turn call), 78 (but 78 probably check/calls or folds the turn), or AX of hearts.
So a decent player has to figure an AK is good most of the time here and makes a call. He will often fold QQ and KK - but on the turn, not the river. So is it a +EV bluff? I think not, because I believe he has AK or AA based on the action.

Of course that assumes he thinks it through rather than staring at the screen like a deer while the time runs out.

MisterKing · #7 02-02-2005, 02:54 PM

The river card is not scary enough to blow this guy off of a hand. My thinking is: wait for a situation where you were drawing to a less-obvious hand like a straight when the board flops two of a suit and then puts a third of that suit out on the river, perhaps a card that also completes other draws or pairs the board. You need several draws to be made by the river to scare someone off of an overpair/TPTK/top two, not an obscure runner-runner flush or two pair-->boat.

I wonder what villian bought with your $125?

SeattleJake · #8 02-02-2005, 03:08 PM

newbie response:

I think top pair-top kicker would have check-raised on the flop, and by the river you are representing the same hand that he's likely to have. A semi-bluff on the flop would seem to be a better play than here. If something besides a 7/6/5 hit on the river, then maybe since you're probably catching him on the busted flush.

ChipLeader · #9 02-02-2005, 03:28 PM

Well its good that you know your opponent can lay down a good hand, but that means youve played with him enough so that he probably had a read on you as well. It seems to me that you want to represent a set, thus the limp/call preflop and the "slowplayed" flop. I am fine with both flop and preflop call, but turn i would have check/raised because if he is betting KK or QQ, he'll prolly let it go putting you on AQ or AK, or coming out with your set. If he comes over the top, let it go. If he calls, then you can run your bluff on the river because you showed aggression already and he still may lay down AK or AQ putting you on a slowplayed set, and if he has QQ or KK then he has to be worried about that same set or an AK/AQ, maybe even flush.
The worst thing you can do is be passive the whole way, then bet hard on a terrible river because this looks to most like a buy...
Anyone see anything wrong with this theory?

tdomeski · #10 02-03-2005, 02:34 PM

I pegged him squarely on KK or QQ. I thought if I represented a "monster" he would lay down on the turn and if not I knew I had 6 live outs and a black chip behind me just in case I missed. . . Problem is, now that I think about it some more, there is no real monster I can have there.

Anyways he thought until his time bank hit like 3 seconds then called with black kings. . .

Now the aftermath. .I play with this guy regularly, can I now make value bets with thinner holdings?