Going to track to see if I am truly "unlucky"

Vetstadium · #1 02-01-2005, 03:38 PM

I am going to track six things starting today to see if I am truly "unlucky" or just remember the unlucky times. I am going to mark down every time I am all in preflop only the following categories: me favored slight adv coin toss/ opponent favored slight adv coint toss. Me dominating opp/Me being domintated and my over pair vs underpair and vice versa. I feel and since I think I play correctly I am usually the one that gets burned more since I am more times in preflop with the better hand. I will see after 200 or so tourns if my logic is correct.

spentrent · #2 02-01-2005, 03:50 PM

What insights from this experiment will change your game?

ColdestCall · #3 02-01-2005, 03:52 PM

Prediction: If you play enough tournaments, and keep track of enough all ins, you will find that your AA holds up against 77 roughly 80% of the time, your AKo will beat 10-Js around 59% of the time, your 2,2 will LOSE to 7-6s just about 53.5% of the time, and a variety of other interesting tidbits.

Awesemo · #4 02-01-2005, 03:57 PM

It sounds like a good idea if you want to determine whether your results were caused by skill or just variation.

ColdestCall · #5 02-01-2005, 04:07 PM

"It sounds like a good idea if you want to determine whether your results were caused by skill or just variation."

Prediction #2 - The favorable results will be attributed to "skill." The unfavorable results will be attributed to "variation."

Big Limpin' · #6 02-01-2005, 04:09 PM

I took a psychology course in university, needed 3 arts credits. I didnt take much from that class, but one thing i DO remember is this:

Our brains tend to do a better job of remembering things that seem "odd" to us, or are unexpected.

Loosing when you are the favorite is thus remembered better than when your hand holds up.

If you have 100 hands where you are leading PP vs PP allin p/f, you "feel" like you won <70% of them, even though you won 80%.

You are not more "unlucky" than anyone else. We all feel that way sometimes. Just remember:

YOu can have a lucky day, but you cant be a lucky player. And vice versa.

Awesemo · #7 02-01-2005, 04:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Prediction #2 - The favorable results will be attributed to "skill." The unfavorable results will be attributed to "variation."

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how winning a coinflip can be attributed to skill. This guy's idea certainly won't hurt him and you're just flaming it.

spentrent · #8 02-01-2005, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Prediction #2 - The favorable results will be attributed to "skill." The unfavorable results will be attributed to "variation."

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how winning a coinflip can be attributed to skill. This guy's idea certainly won't hurt him and you're just flaming it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how it will help. Let's turn the metaphor into reality. Flip a coin 1000 times today and keep accurate results. Run some regressions. Do it again tomorrow. Let's make sure that coin's safe!

ColdestCall · #9 02-01-2005, 04:38 PM

Which do you think is more harmful in the long run: my pointing out in an ironic (and attempted humorous) way the futility of this experiment, or your encouraging him to do it and perpetuating the notion that it is possible that he is "unlucky."

No one is unlucky in the long run. Vets is talking about all-in situations pre-flop. Played enough times, he will win and lose exactly the percentage of the time he is expected to. Period.

FWIW, I'm not trying to hurt anyone's feelings by "flaming" them, so apologies to Vet if he was offended, which I doubt. Just trying to get him to think through the logic of the OP.

The Yugoslavian · #10 02-01-2005, 05:19 PM

I wish you luck in your quest.

In fact, I will go one better than just wishing you luck, I will track your luck in investigating luck. Hopefully someone will be willing to track my luck in tracking your investation in tracking your luck.

I hope to set a rigorous peer-review example that this forum may build on in the future. With some luck, from now on this forum will build upon each other's investigation with unrelenting zeal.

This, of course, would mean someone has to track the luck of my peer-review example setting a standard. I will be forthcoming with a methodology after my tracking of Vestadium's luck in his investigation and be sure to submit it to undoubtedly thorough posters such as Eastbay and AleoMagus to investigate the luck of my methodology being correct or not.

Yugoslav