Walking in the wilderness, searching for the light...

abacusse · #1 01-28-2005, 08:29 PM

Explain this one....

First I crush everything on 0.25/0.50 at paradise averaging 5BB/100....this goes on for 10k hands...
I step up a level and start at 0.50/1.00...goes down to 1.3 BB/100 which is acceptable I suppose after 3k hands...

I then get the absolutely fantastic idea that I should start playing at Party as their games are supposedly a lot softer than Paradise...

After 1500 hands Ive lost the 100 dollars I put in at Party...

At the same time going back to Paradise it gets worse and worse...I lose and lose...at the most I am down about 100BB and seriously considering going down a level...

As all this happens I at the same time have my books delivered from Amazon...SSH, Theory of Poker (which I havent read yet)....the more I study SSH (Ive read WLLHE before) and the more I think "hey, thats how I try and play" the worse it gets on the actual tables...

And no, I dont play too many hands..rather Tight - about 18% according to PT and at PT I have TA-A according to the fabulous rules I found at this forum....

Has anybody experienced the same thing - the more you read and study the worse it gets? Or is this just one hell of a bad beat? I really dont believe its just a bad beat...they dont cost that much do they?
I am quite new to the game - about 100k hands since october...my bankroll is still fine so its not a money problem...

Could anybody have the kindness to try and enlighten me? Or should I just kill myself?

Catt · #2 01-28-2005, 08:40 PM

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Explain this one....

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Variance. A very, very solid player can easily lose over stretches well in excess of 10K hands . . .

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After 1500 hands Ive lost the 100 dollars I put in at Party...

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1500 hands is nothing. 100 BB is not enough of a BR and is certainly not enough to determine that you're being outplayed.

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At the same time going back to Paradise it gets worse and worse...I lose and lose...at the most I am down about 100BB and seriously considering going down a level...

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100 BB is not a catastrophe, let alone wildly unexpected. Going down a level might be fine -- but it should be because you're uncomfortable with your play, not because you're down 100 BB over 1500 hands.

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. . . or should I just kill myself?

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You really, really need to get a better (or should i just say a?) grasp of standard deviation and variance. I'm treating that last statement as a bit of a joke / exaggeration. If it is not, just stop playing poker right now and find another hobby. If it is (as I assume it is), spend some time in the probability and psychology forums.

Aaron W. · #3 01-28-2005, 08:42 PM

Welcome to the learning curve and variance.

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I am quite new to the game - about 100k hands since october...my bankroll is still fine so its not a money problem...

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Are you multi-tabling? I bet you are. Cut back to a single table when you're trying to learn new skills and techniques (or making any other major change, like stakes or site) - you need to pay attention to what you're doing so you don't start wasting money.

abacusse · #4 01-28-2005, 08:47 PM

I appreciate your encouraging thoughts and I am obviously not serious about killing myself (maybe my pokeraccounts though...)...

I think I know my probabilities as I used to work as an odds compiler in sports betting and Ive certainly figured out potodds and whathaveyou when it comes to the numbers in poker...

The problem is I feel comfortable at this level and think I play it okay but I seem to be outdrawn or end up with KK against AA too often...I know, I am a whingeing idiot who feels sorry for himself and looking for support...but, hey, from that point of view this forum is magnificent! Got to be one of the friendliest and best forums on the net...

abacusse · #5 01-28-2005, 08:51 PM

Of course you're right - I am multitabling...

Catt · #6 01-28-2005, 08:53 PM

A belated welcome to the forums! These are great forums but you need to be prepared for some harsh words and sarcasm and be able to handle it.

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I think I know my probabilities as I used to work as an odds compiler in sports betting and Ive certainly figured out potodds and whathaveyou when it comes to the numbers in poker...

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This means nothing, frankly. Your original post details quite clearly that you are not equipped with the prerequisite knowledge regarding variance -- the very large swings your bankroll will take in both directions -- to avoid the very "oh my gosh the sky is falling" sort of expression in your original post. If you had a thorough understanding of the variance involved, you wouldn't be fazed by the 100 BB loss (you might be a little pissed, but hopefully not that either).

abacusse · #7 01-28-2005, 08:57 PM

Okay...excuse my ignorance but what kind of variance can I expect at a microlevel like 0.5/1.00? +-500BB? Should I make a more thorough assessment after 100k hands on PT? At the moment I have about 20k hands logged...

Catt · #8 01-28-2005, 09:06 PM

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Okay...excuse my ignorance but what kind of variance can I expect at a microlevel like 0.5/1.00? +-500BB? Should I make a more thorough assessment after 100k hands on PT? At the moment I have about 20k hands logged...

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It's a bit more complicated than just stating a likely range -- the oft-used rule of thumb around here is 300 BB minimum bankroll because a 300 BB downswing is pretty unlikely (though not impossible by any stretch) if you're a moderately winning player. You could be a winning player and still have a 300 BB+ downswing . . .

What's difficult about the situation is that you don't have a firm grasp of whether or not you're a winning player and to what degree for an awfully long time.

Another common rule of thumb is that certain stats start becoming meaningful at 10K hands (VPIP, PFR, TOTAGG, etc.) but that winrate is defintiely not one of them. You'll need more than 20K hands for that, too . . .

Visit the probability section and do some searches regarding variance.

abacusse · #9 01-28-2005, 09:12 PM

Thank you...appreciate your help...

beset7 · #10 01-28-2005, 09:15 PM

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It's a bit more complicated than just stating a likely range -- the oft-used rule of thumb around here is 300 BB minimum bankroll because a 300 BB downswing is pretty unlikely (though not impossible by any stretch) if you're a moderately winning player. You could be a winning player and still have a 300 BB+ downswing . . .

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I believe in Gambling Theory and Other Topics, Malmuth basically says that a 300xBB bankroll decreases your risk of ruin to about 5% if you are a winning player. If you are comfortable with a lower confidence rate, play with a smaller bankroll. If not, you may want to consider packing a larger bankroll so you don't go on tilt and aggravate things.