Flush draw + pair, big pot

[bdk3clash]

$4-8 game in NYC. 2 EP players limp, I limp in EMP with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], SFer limps, MRBAA folds (insert table/seat selection joke here), button (who has reasonable preflop raising standards but is a bit loose in terms of coldcalls) raises, both blinds call, everyone calls.

7 players to the flop for 14 SBs/7 BBs.

Flop comes 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

First limper checks, second limper bets. Second limper is decent, a little loose preflop and all but pretty aggressive postflop, understands position, blah blah blah. I call, SFer calls, button (preflop raiser) calls, both blinds call, EP limper calls. 7 players to the turn for 21 SBs/10.5 BBs.

Turn comes (3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

EP limper checks, flop bettor bets, I raise...

Comments on each street appreciated, but I'm mainly interested in my turn decision.

[jgorham]

I think that is a good spot for a raise for a number of reasons. First, you might have the best hand at this point - from your description of the players, the second limper would probably bet into the field with a Jack, a mid range pocket pair, or a solid draw. No one showed aggression on the flop and that 10 probably didn't help them significantly. If the two players behind you fold you can (maybe) see a free showdown unimproved, and if they call you don't really mind spending that extra bet with your 14 outs.

[jonahmavesin]

Big pot. Lots of players. Coordinated straight and flush cards high and low. SO, you are likely up against a fair number of "caught something" hands, a few real (i.e., non-backdoor) draws, and an overcards or two (e.g., button?).

So, given that:
-the turn checks by the blinds + one limper
-no one else showed aggression on the flop
-the bet came directly to your right
-you should be able to fold a lot of hands that could beat you, like overcards or gutshots (or at least the gutshots will be getting bad odds to call vs. good odds to call)
-likely few hands are already beating you except the J or dominated T, hence its a semibluff, because
-you have plenty of outs (even if you're discounting the 9s as making some straights and the possibility of a higher flush)

I like the raise. I hope there was no J out there, you folded the overcards, a blank hit on the end and your pair Ts is good.


EDIT: Out of curiosity, what are you uncertain about with this decision? What are you scared of? Dirty outs?

[Luv2DriveTT]

A perfect spot for a raise. It might protect your hand, but more than anything it is a raise for value. Good show.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[mr pink]

preflop is pretty standard since i assume you can outplay these guys postflop.

flop - your position to the bettor sucks, you don't want to raise and blow away the field so the call is good.

turn - given that the flop bettor is not the preflop raiser, there's no reason to assume he's just following up his preflop aggression with subsequent bets... i doubt middle pair is good here. i think you can give yourself a generous 13.5 outs on the turn as your 9 outs are kind of dirty. given that, i don't really see much value in raising in this spot unless you hope to take a free showdown unless you improve, meanwhile you've still got 4 players to act behind you. i think i'd just call the turn bet and hope to improve by the river. feels kind of weak but i can't find the value in raising b/c i don't see enough people calling 2 cold for it to be a value raise and i can't see a better hand folding. plus calling a 3-bet would suck.

peace - jeff

[jonahmavesin]

that seems weak to me.

which better hands are you afraid of? a J, but the only credible J so far based on the flop play is the turn bettor. You might be up against an AT somewhere, but I can't imagine an AT lighting it up to three bets on the turn unless they also had a very coordinated hand just like Hero's. I think the only thing I would half expect to see on "one of those days" is a slowplayed set, but I just don't think you can fear that here until you see evidence in the form of a 3-bet.

also, I love raising the flush draws here. if they call, you can get enough callers for a value bet. if they fold, they make the right decision but you potentially save yourself the pot.

all that said, I agree he probably has only ~11 good outs here or so. But 3:1 is plenty of payoff to get agressive on a semibluff which, for all he knows given the available evidence, may in fact be the best hand anyway.

[SA125]

I like raising the flop and leading the turn. You'd like others along for your flush draw, but also want to give yourself the best chance to win the hand. Narrow the field.

If not, the line you took is good on the turn. You have a lot of outs.

[Evan]

I misread the hand, disregard my post if you already read it.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
but I can't imagine an AT lighting it up to three bets on the turn unless they also had a very coordinated hand just like Hero's.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly, it's not likely that hero is ahead here. i don't see the flop bettor leading the flop and turn here that often with less than top pair. hero is probably behind, his raise is not gonna buy him any outs... his raise will force the field to call 2 cold, thus not much for value. i don't see him winning this without improving, thus he should just call the turn while he's drawing and allow the other players in to pad the pot.

[jonahmavesin]

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