Folding pocket QQ on a J-T-2 rainbow flop?

[paulish]

Fresh hand from my local club in Oslo, Norway
$100 NL hold'em Freeze-out Tourney
68 players
Start Chips : 10.000

Level III : 100/200
Villain (MP2) : 11.000
Hero (Button) : 9.000

Pre-Flop
SB post 100, BB post 200, everybody folds too Villain who raises up to 600. MP3 and CO folds. Hero makes it 1.500 total, holding [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]. SB and BB folds. Villain calls.

Flop
Two players, pot=3.300 and Hero has 7.500 left
[J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]].
Villain checks, Hero bets 2.000.
Villain who is a decent player, thinks for a long time before he re-raises, and makes it 5.000

Sheit. Why doesn't he go all-in? Is he trying to milk me? If I call this one, I have to call an all-in on the turn or river; the pot will be giving me 6-1

What can he hold?[*] [Nix Nada] - very unlikely[*] [K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] or [A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] - unliekly. I don't see a good player (Villain has done ok in the Oslo-tourneys, although he mostly plays re-buy & add-on) calling a re-raise with over 10% of his stack with hands that most likely are dominated. [*] [A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] or [K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] - Possible. I should have seen a re-raise pre-flop, but he could be slow-playing since it's heads-up[*] [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] or [T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] - this makes most sence

What should I do?[*] Call - this is the worst play in my opinion[*] Raise all-in - The combined possibility that Villain;
a) is an idiot holding AJ or some kind of draw and my Queens hold up
b) folds
c) hodls a monster, and I out-draw him
...is high enough to to make a stand correct since the pot will be giving me 2-1[*] Fold? and continue play with my 5.500

I folded, and went out with Kings a couple of hands later.

Any comments on my play, my reasoning... my shrinking balls?

<font color="blue"> paulish </font>

[skoal2k4]

I think you gotta go all-in here and put him to the test. Blinds are low compared to stack size and you can still work with 5500, but you have an overpair against a decent player (as you described). I think you may indeed be looking at AJ and this is a semi-bluff of sorts. Or why not a wired middle pair and he's just trying to push you off hoping you have AK or AQ or something? My move... push.. thoughts?

Robbie

[soxfan70]

I say its completely read dependant. If you know this guy as a good player, I say the worst possible hand he's holding is KK, which dominates you. If your read is correct, there's no hand you can put him on that you beat. You have to at least think about laying those Q's down, but man its tough to do!

[nightlyraver]

I think this really depends on the range of hands you put Villain on in this hand. First, I think that such a player would have to be a real rock to only raise here with AA-TT. If he is, then this is a clear fold since every hand in the range beats you (save QQ where you tie). However, look at the pre-flop play. He raised to 3xBB in MP2 - this is somewhat weak. He could be on a steal or he could simply have a marginal hand since many players in that seat will want to play for a small raise as open-limping from that spot is terrible. When you re-raised him pre-flop you only raised him 900 (not really that strong of a raise) and you're on the button (makes your raise look even weaker since there are only the blinds left to act and you will be in position on the flop). I like your bet on the flop, but his heads-up check-raise doesn't necessarily mean that he flopped a set or even 2-pair. Remember that many players in that spot will want to get the best value from their set, especially since he can probably rule out the possibility that you are on a draw (maybe KQs would re-raise like you pre-flop, but often they won't).

I really have a hard time giving him credit for JJ or TT in this spot. I don't know this player - you seem to think you do. However, I say that his range could be as follows: AA-66, AK-AT, KQ-KTs, QJ, QTs, JTs and probably not much else. Unless he is giving you credit for a big pair, a check-raise is often in order with almost any of these since you likely holding will seem to have missed this flop (unless you have exactly AJ). Given that you actually beat all those hands except for 5 (AA,KK,JJ,TT,JT) and the range is about 15 or 20 hands (maybe 12 if he is tighter than most) playing for all your chips is justified.

I really think that you're giving him too much credit there... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[paulish]

More info
Villain is an agressive player. But I hardly see him calling my pre-flop re-raise with anything other than a pair, AK...possibly even low suited connectors.
But as i say, not hands that are easily dominated (AJ-type).
If he wanted to steal the pot and get some information he would have most likely bet, instead of check-raising.

I had one observation that aslo led me to believe that he was strong; [*] He had attemted a steal earlier, and when the BB started to count chips, he started to push his cards around. He then reluctantly folds to BB's re-raise.[*] When I was in agonizing thoughts after his check-raise, I counted my chips and giving an impression that I was about to make an reluctant all-in. But he didn't flinch, didn't lean back, say anything or tuch his cards.

<font color="blue"> paulish </font>

[mcteecho]

You know him to be solid. He called 7.5xbb out of position pre-flop. You're behind AA, KK, JJ, and TT, you split w QQ, and he has outs if he's playing AQ, AJ, AT or AK (although you have two of them for the latter). You'll still have 30xbb if you fold. I'd fold.

I want one day to start a post with " . . . my local club in Oslo, Norway . . ."

[patrick dicaprio]

in an online game this might be true but against good players it is hard to see how you can go all in here. hero was a PF reraiser and got called. very few hands villain could have here that QQ beats on this flop since he is behind AA-TT. very few solid players will have AQ or AK here so even if AJ is a possibility that doesnt mean you call.

Pat

[flyingmoose]

What's his read on you at this point?

Have you only reraised with big pairs? Have you been caught bluffing, or shown any bluffs or rebluffs? Have you folded an overpair face up so far?