I think I suck. PLEASE help me improve my game!

[imported_Jim C]

Hi everyone,

I've read and studied SSH, HPFAP, ToP and Carson's Complete Hold'Em.

I started out well in $1/$2 (+6.07BB/100) and moved up to $2/$4 after about 3000 hands. Yes, I know this is a very small sample size.

Things have gone to hell on me at $2/$4. After 8100 hands, I am -454BB for -5.58BB/100 (!). It seems nearly impossible to me that this is simply variance. My 95% confidence interval is (-9.5, -1.6), which is no surprise. That makes me 95% confident I'm a big loser.

Please help me understand how to go about "debugging" my game! I am very frustrated!

My VP$IP is about 25%, which is consistent with what I've read of other posters following SSH guidelines, or perhaps a tiny bit looser. Preflop raise is about 9.5% on $2/$4 and my total AF is around 1.5. I think I play a slightly loose, but fairly aggressive game. My game has gotten less aggressive as I've continued to lose (I know I need to avoid this), from a high total AF of around 1.8. I have virtually eliminated bluffing from my game, except heads up agaist very tight or skilled players. I use a little chart with outs & odds and I only chase if there is overlay, or *occasionally* on a rainbow flop with lots of players (feeling that implied odds justify this). I don't always discount my outs correctly (for "outs" that could make someone else a flush, etc.), but I am getting better at this.

Pokertracker's Misc Stats is interesting to me. In aggregate, it shows that I lose the majority of my money with One Pair. Two Pair is also a slightly net-losing hand for me. When I "Show Only Hands That Were Not Folded", all hand types are profitable. Am I correct in interpreting this that I am folding fairly well, but perhaps too late? The One Pair hands occur 4200 times, but I only saw the flop on 1530 of them, going to showdown 150 times, or about 10% of the time.

My Went to SD% is 35.69%, which has come down a bit as I'm trying to get off of more losing hands. Again, this number seems in line with other (winning) posters. My Won$ At SD is a lousy 43.25% These numbers were 40.53% and 50.13% in the 3000 hands of $1/$2. I've lowered my Went to SD, but I'm losing my ass. Am I *still* going to SD too much?

I will post hands, and I read the hand analyses. I know this is a very important way to learn. In the meantime, please help me figure out why I'm getting killed? I don't really even know what specific questions to ask. I love this game, but since I've decided to master it, I've become more and more frustrated.

Thanks in advance,

Jim

[bisonbison]

My VP$IP is about 25%, which is consistent with what I've read of other posters following SSH guidelines, or perhaps a tiny bit looser.

You are 5 to 10 % points looser than most players here.

Move down, get your VPIP under 20, then reconsider.

[Harv72b]

When are you folding your hands? Especially if you're paying to enter a pot 1 out of every 4 hands, taking too many "cards off" after the flop can have a pretty big negative effect on your win rate. And yes, a VPIP of 25 is too high...even at 1/2, that would be too loose.

You might also want to look at your position stats. Playing too many weak hands out of position can be a pretty big money trap as well, and will hurt a lot worse at 2/4 than at 1/2.

Completely eliminating bluffing is not the answer...that is a skill that you will definitely need as you move up in limits. The trick is learning when to bluff...HPFAP has some great advice on this topic, and it certainly wouldn't hurt to go over that section again. There are certain players (calling stations) that a bluff will never work against, but most players can be folded by a good bluff, so long as you don't overuse it.

I also agree with Bisonbison on this one...it would probably do you a lot of good to step back down to 1/2 for a while and get your confidence back up. If you're playing scared it's only going to make the situation worse.

[Derek in NYC]

1. With a 25% VPIP, you are not "slightly loose"--you are loose. Your number should be around 18-20%, some would say less. SOLUTION: force yourself to play off the tight chart from SSH only. Right now, you lack the judgment to play off the loose chart. When you get a feel for what tight play is, give yourself permission to start adding suited connectors, smaller pairs, etc. Much of the "looser" plays require limpers ahead of you... perhaps you're not doing this.

2. Your PFR of 9.5% is fine, actually about a point higher than mine. I wonder whether you are generally LAGgy, or selectively aggressive. Some here might disagree, but I think you should focus your raises on basic value raises only (e.g., reraising with AK). I dont think you have the skill to be doing tactical re-raises, such as isolating a maniac with AJo. Just do value raises preflop.

3. Your AF of 1.8 is low. Are you quoting with pre-flop numbers? Your flop and 4th street AF should be around 2.5-3.0, your river a bit lower.

4. If you are using a "chart" to calculate outs and odds, your play needs quite a bit of work. Memorize the table in SSH p. 30, up until 9 outs. Re-read pp. 98-107 (counting outs), and pp 114-144 (evaluating the flop).

5. Your pokertracker results stats such as hands you lose with, your W$SD, etc. are not worth studying at this point. They are symptomatic of more fundamental errors in your game, not the root cause of your losses. When you straighten out your game, the result statistics will fall into place.

6. Do check your CCPF numbers on pokertracker. Go hand by hand. Make sure that you're not cold calling preflop with easily dominated hands like KJo, AT, etc. Check your total CCPF against your total number of hands--your percentage should be miniscule.

7. Post hands.

8. Although I don't normally recommend this, because you do likely have some serious leaks in your game, I recommend that you go read some of the "weak tight" books like WLLH or, even better, Middle Limit Holdem. The latter is really an excellent book that will help you improve your post-flop play. Once you have the MLH principles down, you can add back more of the SSH concepts.

SUMMARY: I bet you are a case study in misapplied SSH principles. This will result in high variance and large losses. Go back to basics.

[ggbman]

Don't EVER move up after 3000 hands. I dont think 3000 hands even qualifies as a small sample size.

[GrunchCan]

Welcome to the forum.

You moved up much too quickly. Move back down to .5/1, and put in at least 10,000 hands there, or until you have a $600 BR - whichever comes later. If you hit $600 at 3,000 hands, put in another 7,000 anyway. Once your BR >= 600 and you have at least 10K hands, move up just one level - to 1/2.

3000 hands is barely an appetizer. Your stats mean almost nothing. The only one that even resembles convergance is VPIP, and yours is much too high. If your VPIP should be 18% (a debatable opinion), then you play almost 40% more hands than you should. This isn't slightly loose - it's falling off the bolt.

Good luck.

[amulet]

cut down your preflop play to as close as you can to 15%. unless the pot is big do not play without top pair, an overpair, or a real draw. try not to call raises cold. this advice is too simplistic and will be incorrect on some hands, however, your results will improved dramaticly. then after a few months of successful play, you can expand upon the above. think "i can not be too tight."

[Rocco]

Hi Jim.

Yep, you're right, your VP$IP is too high. Though, I don't consider your pre-flop play loose (out of 5000 players in my database, 3200 have a VP$IP > 25%) and you're still able to play winning poker if your post-flop play is good enough. I used to be at 26% before I started to analyze my hands using Poker Tracker...

And that is exactly what you should do, use Poker Tracker, as it seems you've already got it. Many people say you should lower your VP$IP to below 20%, but how do you do that? I used the filter function under the "General Info" tab and had a close look att some specific hands. Try following three steps...

1. As another poster mentioned, you're likely to cold-call to much. Danger hands that can lose you money here is AJo, ATo, KQo, KJo, KTo QJo, QTo, JTo etc. AQo is either fold (if raised by tight player) or 3-bet. In fact, be more inclined to 3-bet as you'll have position against the raiser throughout the hand.

2. Don't play above hands from EP as they are likely to be dominated by a MP or LP raise. These hands are very hard to get away from if the flop hits one of your cards. Chances are you're drawing dead.

By following the above two steps, I lowered my VP$IP to between 21-22. Still a bit too high, so I investigated some more hands...

3. Have a close look at your plays with Axs, Kxs and suited connectors. You'll probably find numerous of these to be big losers. Don't ever play Kxs (except from the blinds) and only play Axs and low suited connectors from late positions and with callers in front. Since you've read SSHE, you know these hands work best in multiway pots.

Above steps should see your VP$IP drop to around 17-18. And, as you now are a player who plays strong hands, you'll be more inclined to lead out or raise on later streets. And... Voila!... Your aggression factor will go up.

Hope this helps!

[MattC]

yes i also suggest getting middle limit holdem, its very easy to read and understand and will help you immensely. However, a lot of the examples are sometimes questionable (it makes you play a bit too safe). so once u master this book go back and master some of the 2+2 concepts that are a little more advanced and then you can go back to middle limit holdem and compare and contrast, see what is right and what is wrong and why, being able to do this is the most important skill you can gain. combining these two books will certainly help you out a lot, it has for me.

[PokerAce]

Moving up after 3000 hands? Most of us play more hands than that a week, and some of the more insane among us play that many in a day. I would recommend at least 20k hands at a limit and a 400 BB bankroll.

I recommend 20k hands because that is enough hands to give you some idea of how you're doing at your current level. If you aren't beating your current level, you have no business moving up.

When you move up in limits, you have some adjusting to do. Having a 400 BB bankroll gives you some breathing room. I believe the 300 BB rule applies to after you are beating the limit. If you play long enough, you WILL encounter 100 BB, 200 BB, perhaps even 300 BB downswings. Having 400 BB will make you much more comfortable starting out at the new limit. I recommend moving down to $1/2 until you have $1600 for $2/4.

Also, follow the guidelines other posters have mentioned. You need a hand more powerful than the raiser's hand to call his raise. Remember that. You shouldn't be cold calling raises very often.

Be careful when playing easily dominated hands such as KQ, QJ, KJ, etc. Don't call raises with these hands. Be careful with suited connectors and suited aces. You need limpers for these to be profitable, at least two.

I agree with the others. You are likely playing too many hands in early position and cold calling too much. Don't call down thinking the other player is bluffing, because that doesn't happen very often at these limits. Beware of turn and river raises and check-raises. They usually indicate great strength. Don't be afraid to lay down your hand if you're pretty sure you're beaten.

So my advice boils down to this: move down until you can confidently tackle this limit and tighten up. You should wait until your VP$IP is at or below 20 before moving back up. Good luck! The $2/4 games are extremely beatable, you just need to know how to play them.