Using odds quickly

[mreinecker]

I know how to determine outs, but how can you quickly/easily turn that into odds that you can compare to pot odds ? I'd appreciate it if someone took the time to explain this to me. Thanks.

[Mojo Tooth]

It's not math that most people can do in their heads. The easiest thing to do is memorize certain common situations, then expand on those situations as you encounter them.

For example. Let's say a flop gives you a strong drawing hand, either to a flush or open-ended straight. If you know you will be around for the turn and river, then the chances of making a flush are about one in three, or 2:1 against. So the required pot odds should be close to 2:1, or better.

Same thing for the OESD, although the chance is slightly worse, it still rounds to about 2:1 against, so same pot odds.

(None of this takes into account implied odds, which Mr. Sklansky says I should do unless I'm a bad boy)

Now let's say you find yourself getting a fourth flush card on the turn after both you and your opponents check a non-descript flop. You only have one card to come, and you'll hit your flush about one time in five or about 4:1 against. For the open-ended straight draw case, the rounding ends up making this a bit different and the odds are about 5:1 against.

So remember the odds requirements for flush draws and straight draws, that's a good place to start. Add in a couple more very common situations like two pair drawing to a boat (which is the same odds as drawing to an gutshot straight draw, same number of outs, so that one comes for free). Pretty soon you find yourself with a decent little set of odds that come up frequently that you already know.

You can also fudge the numbers a bit for certain situations. Let's say you're drawing to an outside straight, and you're pretty sure that your opponent is sitting on a flush draw. That means that two of the cards that complete your straight make a winning hand for your opponent, so you should adjust the required pot odds quite a bit. Even without knowing the math off the top of your head, you can say you need to increase those pot odds by 50% or more and that will help you make the decision most of the time.

[walterberk]

easiest way is this: unseen cards/# of outs -1.

So if you have 4 outs, with the river to come (46 cards unseen- 52-2 in your hand-4 on the board)

46/4=11.5 - 1 = 10.5 to 1. But these are much easier to use if you just memorize them.

[HTML Samurai]

In Phil Gordon's Poker: The Real Deal, Phil offers a quick and dirty formula for these calculations. Before the Turn, you simply multiply outs times four. Before the River, outs times two. Like I said, quick and dirty, but fairly accurate.

For example, you flopped a flush draw. You have nine outs. So, before the Turn you are at about 36% (9 x 4) to hit the flush and 18% (9 x 2) if you missed it on the Turn.

I hope this helps.

[duma]

Comes from that nut John turmel. Memorize this array:

Outs: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 21
Odds: 45 22 14 10 08 07 06 05 04 04 03 03 03 02 02 02 1.5 1.2

(I added some zeros to help out with spacing) Pretty simple, and saves all the mental gymnastics when multi-tabling.
If you want to remember quickly, multiply the odds by the
outs, you can see some distinct patterns. Or you can add the outs and the odds together to see other patterns.

[TenPercenter]

[ QUOTE ]
In Phil Gordon's Poker: The Real Deal, Phil offers a quick and dirty formula for these calculations. Before the Turn, you simply multiply outs times four. Before the River, outs times two. Like I said, quick and dirty, but fairly accurate.

For example, you flopped a flush draw. You have nine outs. So, before the Turn you are at about 36% (9 x 4) to hit the flush and 18% (9 x 2) if you missed it on the Turn.

I hope this helps.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great shortcut for me, I am horrible at quick "head" math. And I work with percentages much better than odds.

is there a similar way to get the percentage for pot odds?

Ten

ps: How is that book? I would say I'm well past beginner stage in holde'em and poker in general. But I could use some more "QaD" pointers/tips.

[Mojo Tooth]

[ QUOTE ]
In Phil Gordon's Poker: The Real Deal, Phil offers a quick and dirty formula for these calculations. Before the Turn, you simply multiply outs times four. Before the River, outs times two. Like I said, quick and dirty, but fairly accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not bad. I might start using that.

Another thing to remember is that if you use the formula for "River" odds on the Turn because you're only planning on making one call at the most, it's not a big mathematical mistake. It might be a STRATEGIC mistake, but not a math one. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[HTML Samurai]

It's pretty good - but not a strategy or how to book. This is a book about poker, casinos, and tournaments. What to expect, how to react, and what Phil went through on his way to becoming a professional poker player - including the mistakes he learned from, so you don't have to. If you are wanting to learn more about how to play if a scare card comes up on the River, this is not the book for you. If you are looking for an entertaining read about the poker world from the perspective of someone that was lived it (as well as a few pointers), this is the book for you. I have also heard that 'Poker Nation' by Andy Bellin is the same type of book. I have not read it yet, but it is on my list.

And I am glad I could help.

[VinnyTheFish]

Link to other posts

[SpeakEasy]

Roughly the same formulas from a Cardplayer article that I now use constantly, to calculate the percentage chance of hitting an out:

On the Flop:
1-8 outs --> Outs x 4
9-12 outs --> (Outs x 4) - 1
13+ outs --> (Outs x 4) - 4

On the Turn:
(Outs x 2) + 2


Example:
I hold AQo, board is K J 9

I estimate my outs on the flop to be any ace or ten -- 7 outs. Formula: 7x4=28. 28% chance of seeing one of my cards on the turn or river. Calculating on the fly, this is roughly 4 to 1. If the pot + bets is giving me better than 4 to 1 odds, I call on the flop (or raise, if the situation dictates).

For turning the percentages into pot odds, just remember some basic benchmarks:
50% chance requires 2 to 1 pot odds.
33% chance requires 3 to 1 pot odds.
25% chance requires 4 to 1 pot odds.
20% chance requires 5 to 1 pot odds.
16% chance requires about 6 to 1 pot odds.
10% chance requires 10 to 1 pot odds.

Although we see posts on here that calculate hands with scientific precision, rough odds are close enough for me in a game. If my chance of hitting an out is 36%, I'll call it 3 to 1 odds. If the chance is 18%, I'll call it 5 to 1 odds because its close to the 20% benchmark. This helps to prevent brain-lock in the middle of the action.

A good way to practice this is at some low-level limit HE games, where you should be calculating odds constantly on draws.