When big cards miss: is a fold too weak here?

belloc · #1 01-24-2005, 09:51 PM

I feel like playing my big cards too far has been one of my biggest leaks. My thinking has been that I don't want to lose the lead and get bet off a hand, so I just keep betting, hoping to fold off mid pairs and things, which is silly in SSHE. So to counter that, I've started folding these sorts of things more and more when I'm sure I'm beat, or when the pot is small. But maybe I've been taking this strategy too far. Here's an example. Is it incorrect to fold the river here after my redraw misses?

READS: MP1 is pretty solid TAG, SB is a LAP, MP2 is a rock, and Hero is a total dips[/i]hit who a few hands ago on another table just called a raise on the river with a straight flush because he can't read the board correctly when he's four-tabling, and he thought his K-high flush was counterfeited on the river by the A (which the villain held of course) when the fourth flush card fell, but that's not important right now.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

The turn check of the flush redraw was obvously to take a free card. I had postion, and I was the PFR and the flop bettor-outer, so they were surely checking to me. My flush misses, I have A high, so I fold the river to a smallish pot. Thoughts?

Reef · #2 01-24-2005, 09:54 PM

I think folding is fine in this spot. However, you may want to mix up your game a little or else people will do an autobet to you on the river whenever you check the turn. Sometimes if it's HU and I'm not against a station, I will bet the turn UI.

Hojglad · #3 01-24-2005, 09:55 PM

I like the fold on the river. I'm not expecting our hero to win this showdown with A high enough to justify calling. If the person who bets the river got any piece of the flop/turn/river, you are just wasting a big bet here calling. Hell, a tiny pocket pair beats you. Good fold.

VBM · #4 01-24-2005, 10:09 PM

i'm with Reef.

i think you played it fine, but what I do on this turn is really villain-dependent.

A tight/passive villain, I'm taking my chances and betting this turn, if i think i have a chance to win this pot outright after my aggressive PF & flop play.

A loose/aggressive or a tight/aggressive/tricky villain, I play it like you did, b/c I'd prefer not to get raised (it wouldn't be a disaster, but a non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], non-T river sucks)

K C · #5 01-24-2005, 10:16 PM

Just to change things up a bit, although you don't even have a pair, I'd still call the river. Your chances are about 50/50 against a random hand. There's nothing really to suggest your opponent has much here. He may be on a busted draw, and since you say he's aggressive, he may be looking to take it down here. It only costs you 1 BB to net 6.6, and your chances are higher than that I'd say.

As far as betting it out on the flop when you miss, you need to be careful with this and adjust. If you're not taking this down this way often, it's not a good idea. And you don't want to keep betting into calling stations with nothing on later streets. Keep in mind that you're bluffing here, and the situation has to be right to bluff. There's nothing weak about checking and folding when you have nothing and it's not wise to bluff either.

KC
kingcobrapoker.com

jrz1972 · #6 01-24-2005, 10:28 PM

I bet this turn unless I have a read on villian that tells me I shouldn't. Betting is the default line because

1. I have some folding equity here.
2. Even if villian calls, betting the turn will often get me a free showdown, which I will occasionally win.

Note that betting the turn is much better than checking the turn and calling a river bet. If I check behind on the turn, it's because I've given up on the hand and plan to fold to any river bet.

jrz1972 · #7 01-24-2005, 10:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think folding is fine in this spot. However, you may want to mix up your game a little or else people will do an autobet to you on the river whenever you check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

People will do this anyway. Remember that they haven't seen you play before, and they'll probably never see you again, so mixing up your game isn't that important.

For most players, even relatively passive players, checking behind on the turn is an open invitation to steal the pot on the river.

belloc · #8 01-25-2005, 10:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Just to change things up a bit, although you don't even have a pair, I'd still call the river. Your chances are about 50/50 against a random hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps, but he doesn't hold a random hand. He's a pretty solid player and he's still in the hand with this particular board. Sure, he could be on a draw, but I put his likelihood of having something like middle or bottom pair fairly high. At the time of the turn, the pot is small, and it's often going to cost me two big bets to see showdown.

I see what you're saying: he'll fold some percentage of the time, and we'll check the river some percentage of the time, so I suppose there are times I'll win the pot outright or see a 6:1 showdown, sure. But I'm trying to correct what I see as a leak in my game where I feel like I'm quite often paying two big bets here to win six or seven with ace high, and my hand just isn't going to be good often enough (or he isn't going to fold often enough) to justify it.

chaz64 · #9 01-25-2005, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I bet this turn unless I have a read on villian that tells me I shouldn't. Betting is the default line because

1. I have some folding equity here.
2. Even if villian calls, betting the turn will often get me a free showdown, which I will occasionally win.

Note that betting the turn is much better than checking the turn and calling a river bet. If I check behind on the turn, it's because I've given up on the hand and plan to fold to any river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I would play it this way also. If you are check-raised on the turn, do you call and fold the river UI? I think I would.

_bustedflush_ · #10 01-25-2005, 12:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I bet this turn unless I have a read on villian that tells me I shouldn't. Betting is the default line because

1. I have some folding equity here.
2. Even if villian calls, betting the turn will often get me a free showdown, which I will occasionally win.

Note that betting the turn is much better than checking the turn and calling a river bet. If I check behind on the turn, it's because I've given up on the hand and plan to fold to any river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like betting the turn as a semi-bluff. My thinking is that villain has shown weakness by checking to you twice and K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] has got to be a scare card for him with your pfr, bet on the flop and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s already on board.