Biggest losing streak???

[meatballAK]

Was wondering if i could get a few replies from proven winning players letting sharing their bigest streak of finishes out of money?

No lying [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Thanks

[raptor517]

14. but i followed it up with 4 firsts in a row, so i was happy.

[daboze]

12.
and then ended up 1 for 18.

[ChrisV]

13.

Really not that unlikely, suppose your ITM% is a decent 40, then the odds of this happening on a given run of 13 is 0.13%, so you'd expect to see a streak like that once every 770 tourneys or so, yeah?

[ilya]

16, I think? could be 18, I forget.

[The Yugoslavian]

12 is my longest OOTM streak.

However, I'm currently in a 17 OOTM out of 18 (10 OOTM at one point) with only a 3rd place in between in $33 SNGs (technically this streak shouldn't count b/c I've played other limits successfully during this streak).

So, I decided to take a few days off and play limit ring games and I'm doing even worse in those! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] (down 100 big blinds in fewer than 2k hands).

Perhaps last week I became the worst poker player ever!! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

I am currently investigating this hypothesis (mainly in my limit ring play) and outside of one horrendous play (that couldn't account for more than a couple lost BB) I seem to be doing moderately fine at worst (have only looked at 1/2 of my hands so far though).

Hey, I somehow was able to turn this into a quasi-bad beat post! My apologies, I think I needed a little vent, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Yugoslav

[Mystic]

In my last 500 tournies (all $50 / $100 level), longest OTM streak was 13. Second longest was 11. This is with a ROI of just over 30%.

One word for sit n go's - streaky.

[OrcaDK]

9 OOTM, i just ended a streak of 46 SnG's without winning one.

[AleoMagus]

longest ever was 15 OOTM. I've done that twice.

The most frustrating streak I ever had was an over 200 tourney negative ROI streak which culminated in 7 consecutive 4th place finishes.

In theory, you should be able to calculate the kinds of streaks that you can expect in any size sample.

1/(%^N)=S

where,

% = OOTM% (or ITM%, or win%, or whatever you want to calcluate)
N = Number of consecutive streak finishes
S = Sample

So, if you want to know how often you will see a 13 tourney OOTM streak and you finish ITM 40% of the time (and OOTM 60% of the time),

1/(.6^13) = 765.7

So, about every 766 tourneys, you will experience a 13 tourney OOTM streak.

Of course, in reality, this is often not entirely true, as we tend to actually play differently when we are in the midst of a really good or bad streak and this can affect future outcomes. I suspect that most people actually have slightly longer consecutive winning and losing streaks than the math would suggest. This is also due to the fact that many things which affect one SNG result will also affext the SNGs clustered around it. For example, many fish playing on a very busy day, being in a good state of mind that day, or any number of other things.

To illustrate, consider my 7 consecutive 4ths. Normally my 4th place % is about 13.5%. To see 7 in a row,

1/(.135^7) = 1223668

I'd need to on average play over a million SNGs. Well, obviously, I have not played that many SNGs but this happened. So either I was just really unlucky, or more likely, I was psychologically undermining my bubble play after the first couple bubble losses.

Regards
Brad S

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
longest ever was 15 OOTM. I've done that twice.

The most frustrating streak I ever had was an over 200 tourney negative ROI streak which culminated in 7 consecutive 4th place finishes.

In theory, you should be able to calculate the kinds of streaks that you can expect in any size sample.

1/(%^N)=S

where,

% = OOTM% (or ITM%, or win%, or whatever you want to calcluate)
N = Number of consecutive streak finishes
S = Sample

So, if you want to know how often you will see a 13 tourney OOTM streak and you finish ITM 40% of the time (and OOTM 60% of the time),

1/(.6^13) = 765.7

So, about every 766 tourneys, you will experience a 13 tourney OOTM streak.

Of course, in reality, this is often not entirely true, as we tend to actually play differently when we are in the midst of a really good or bad streak and this can affect future outcomes. I suspect that most people actually have slightly longer consecutive winning and losing streaks than the math would suggest. This is also due to the fact that many things which affect one SNG result will also affext the SNGs clustered around it. For example, many fish playing on a very busy day, being in a good state of mind that day, or any number of other things.

To illustrate, consider my 7 consecutive 4ths. Normally my 4th place % is about 13.5%. To see 7 in a row,

1/(.135^7) = 1223668

I'd need to on average play over a million SNGs. Well, obviously, I have not played that many SNGs but this happened. So either I was just really unlucky, or more likely, I was psychologically undermining my bubble play after the first couple bubble losses.

Regards
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]

heeeeeyyyyyy .. . .know i know why you haven't been around. Forget all of this talk about spreadsheets and confidence percentages, you've been filming that rediculous CBS show "Numb3rs", haven't you? The guy who solves murders with math. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

It's a little off thread, but I'll take this opportunity to thank you (and the many others) for the spreadsheet. It's goot!