AKo/s my biggest loser after 10K hands which means my biggest leak

royaltrux · #1 01-23-2005, 08:06 PM

UTG+1 is a TAA
UTG+2 is a LPP
BB is a sLPP

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero 3-bets, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (20.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls $0.50 (All-In), Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB
With the pot so huge aren't I commited to calling down? Flop cold call good (because of the pot size) or just chip spewing?

Thanks for all comments

zuluking · #2 01-23-2005, 08:09 PM

"AKo/s my biggest loser after 10K hands which means my biggest leak"

Sample size too small. Oh yea, and fold the turn.

DeadManJay · #3 01-23-2005, 08:09 PM

I was going to ask why you kept going after the turn but then noticed the straight draw, I think it was well played.

Argus · #4 01-23-2005, 08:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to ask why you kept going after the turn but then noticed the straight draw, I think it was well played.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. From the way UTG+1 played I think he has either an over pair or a set, meaning your only outs are tens. But it looks like you're the only one chasing that straight (and maybe MP3) so you probably aren't splitting. That means you have odds to call it down and your hand was well-played. What was BB on? Two pair? Pocket 8s that he couldn't let go but didn't want to push?

davelin · #5 01-23-2005, 10:06 PM

Anyone have on hand Ed's "You don't know a big leak from a small leak" post?

Reqtech · #6 01-23-2005, 10:09 PM

Why would he fold the turn getting 13:1 odds on the nut inside straight draw?

Reqtech · #7 01-23-2005, 10:12 PM

Why yes, yes I do:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...amp;PHPSESSID=

davelin · #8 01-23-2005, 10:13 PM

Thanks!

JerseyTom · #9 01-23-2005, 10:50 PM

Once you call the flop (which is close because BB could always 3-bet it...), calling one on the turn is fine. Even if you only count rivering the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as 1/2 an out, your odds are 42.5:3.5 against, or ~12.1:1. Pot is giving you 14.5:1 on the turn and you will win at least one more bet on the river (folding the river if you do not improve). So:

42.5 times you lose one bet on the turn and 0 on the river (folding unimproved).
3.5 times you win 17.5 (the 16.5 in the pot after the turn plus at least one more river bet).

( (3.5 * 17.5) - (42.5 * 1) )/46 = +18.75/46 = +.407

Tricky part is if you hit an A or K on the river, you're probably no good, but you will likely call (unless bet and raised in front of you?) and I'm too tired to account for this mathematically...

Reasonable analysis?

Tom

KingOtter · #10 01-23-2005, 11:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why yes, yes I do:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...amp;PHPSESSID=

[/ QUOTE ]

Read this link to find out what is a big leak, and what isn't a big leak, btw.

It's a great post.

A big leak isn't 'My AKo is negative bb'. A big leak is... well, read Ed's post. I can't say it better then he can.

KO