River fold okay? Black KK, insane action.

jason_t · #1 01-22-2005, 06:17 PM

Fourth hand at table, no reads.

On the flop I'm giving no one credit for a flopped flush. On the turn, I'm fairly certain that at least one, if not both, of UTG and MP3 flopped a flush but I think I have the odds to complete my boat, even with it being capped behind me. I have to fold on the river though, right? Or should I have paid 4 BB to showdown this hand? Should I have played this any differently on any street?

Party Poker 2/4 (10 handed) Hold'em converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, MP3 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13.5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (24.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, MP3 raises, Hero folds, UTG 3-bets, MP3 caps, UTG calls.

Main Pot: 32.75 BB

Loser · #2 01-22-2005, 07:09 PM

you are against 2 opponents, the turn reraise is unnecessary as it does not protect your hand against a flush draw. 18:2 vs 19:3 is more than 5:1 for all flush draw calls. Your raise also hurts you as you do not have 33% pot equity only 20%. as far as the river play--good fold if you were 93% (100%-2/28) sure although this should be adjusted since UTG can reraise so it becomes 88% (100% -4/33) sure they have a flush.

Schizo · #3 01-24-2005, 07:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your raise also hurts you as you do not have 33% pot equity only 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get 20% equity?????

deadmunny · #4 01-22-2005, 08:10 PM

Just reading this through, educate me?

I see the threat of the flopped flush and he/you are probably beaten but what about this?

MP3 has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and UTG has 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or AA?

Does not hero have enough invested to call it down?,

Regards David

ugly24 · #5 01-24-2005, 07:59 PM

Deadmunny:

I am in agreement with you here. Preflop UTG is just calling... he certainly could have suited connectors or AQs, but 66 is just as likely (and I'd say more so than AQs). He hits his set on the flop, bets it out and then caps when it gets back to him.

MP3 - A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or as you suggest A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Kx.

At the river its going to cost you 4BB to win 32 or 8:1... so if 1 time in 9 they don't have the flush you break even. I'd have a hard time getting away from this.

Curious about arguments against this.

The Ugly One

deadmunny · #6 01-24-2005, 08:04 PM

Yea, I would have a really hard time folding this especially as turn and river seemed to be no help whatsoever, am i wrong?

Regards David

Gravy (Gravy Smoothie) · #7 01-22-2005, 09:06 PM

The turn 3-bet is quite excessive.

Given the action, I think the river fold is correct despite the large pot size.

jason_t · #8 01-22-2005, 10:00 PM

So I should have called two cold on the turn and then two more after it's (likely) capped by MP3?

Nick C · #9 01-22-2005, 10:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So I should have called two cold on the turn and then two more after it's (likely) capped by MP3?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you definitely shouldn't fold the turn. There are ten river cards that will improve you to a boat or quads.

Edit: Assuming it'll get capped, you're still getting about 5:1 overall on your turn coldcalls, so you have the odds to call on your 3.6 to 1 shot even without taking your implied odds into account.

jason_t · #10 01-24-2005, 10:04 PM

Since people are still speculating about the holdings in this hand, I'll post the results.

UTG had J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and MP3 had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and MHING.

Certainly the turn 3-bet is too much, but I still don't know if it's correct to call on the river. My reads told me no, but the Ed Miller in all of us says yes (I think).