Struggling with pot odds

[livinitup0]

Hypothetical Situation
I have an open-ended straight draw on the turn. There is 5.5BB in the pot with two other players. According to the chart I use, the draw will hit 1 in 2.18 times.
One, is this correct information on the odds?
Two, please complete this formula.... 5.5BB +(implied bets on river) divided by ?????? = pot odds
Pot odds have always been difficult for me to understand...Im I on the right track with this? If not please show me the light!!!

[SoCalPat]

After the turn card is revealed, there are 6 known cards out (your two, plus the four on the board) and 46 unknown cards. Eight of the unknown make your straight. So the odds of you catching on the river are 46-8/8, or 38-8 or 4.75-1 against.

The number you have represents the frequency you'll hit your OESD when you flop it. When the turn comes, your odds of hitting it decrease because you have only one more card to do it in, not two.

For one bet, you have an easy call, as the pot will be laying you no worse than 6.5-1 (and maybe 7.5-1) If you're last to act and you've got other outs (say you're holding KQ, the board reads 2JT rainbow), you could have as many as 14 outs. In this case, you're 32/14 to improve, or 2.3-1 against. Given that you're up against only two other players who have (I'm assuming, given the small pot) shown nothing, betting (also known as semibluffing) isn't a bad play here either if it's checked to you.

[DeadAA88]

First, I'm not sure if you are wording it correctly. Odds are a ratio of when an event will occur in contrast to when it will not occur. I think you mean to say you will hit your draw 1 out of 3.18 times. The odds are 1:2.18 against.

If you have the open ended straight draw on the turn, then your chart is incorrect. Your chart is probably telling you the odds of hitting your hand on the turn OR the river, in which case, it is correct. Your odds of hitting a straight on the next card is 1 in 5.8 time, or odds are 1:4.8 against.

Now, to complete the formula, you have to compare your odds of improving your hand vs the pot odds. Pot odds are detirmined by taking the amount to call and comparing it to the amount in the pot. For example, if it is 2 units to call and 10 units are in the pot, you are getting 1:5 immediate pot odds. Now implied odds try to take into account future betting, but I suggest digesting pot odds before moving on to implied odds.

I recommend picking up a few books on poker (Theory of Poker by Sklansky or Small Stakes Hold Em). Check out the book section for more details.

Wish you the best of luck.

[SheridanCat]

[ QUOTE ]
One, is this correct information on the odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Recheck your chart, or the way you're looking at it. If you have an open-ended straight draw after the flop, the odds are 2.18:1 against making the straight BY THE RIVER, not on the next card.

In your example, you have an OESD on the turn. That means you have 4.75:1 odds against making your straight on the river. Don't rely on me or the charts, do the math yourself. We know the following:

46 cards are unseen
38 cards will not help me
8 cards will help me - assuming they're all clean outs

38/8 = 4.75, thus 38:8 reduces to 4.75:1.

[ QUOTE ]
Two, please complete this formula....

[/ QUOTE ]

Let say it goes bet, call and it's your action.

There are 7.5 bets in the pot. You need to put in 1 to call and see the river, therefore the pot is giving you 7.5:1 odd on your call. The odds against making your hand is 4.75:1. When your odds against making your hand are better than the odds being offered by the pot, a call is in order. In this case it's an easy call.

You don't need to consider implied odds on this hand since you'll get to the river for one bet with proper pot odds and you'll play it hard if you hit and fold if you don't.

Let's change the situation a bit. The preflop action was limp, limp, check in BB by you. The flop checked around. So there is 1.5BB in the pot at the start of the turn action.

You're first. The pot is small, you'd like to see the river as you think someone might be slowplaying a hand that hit the flop. You check. Next player bets, next player calls. There are 3.5BB in the pot. You're now getting 3.5:1 on your call. That's not better than 4.75:1, so it's not a good call based solely on pot odds.

Now, we consider implied odds.

The second player bet, and you suspect he actually has a hand he was slowplaying. So, on the river you expect him to bet again if checked to. You think the next player will call him on the river. So, if you make your OESD you can expect two bets from the other players. Also, you can then check raise, and expect at least one call, thus you'll get 3 bets from the other players.

If you call the turn, there are 4.5BB in the pot. Their three additional bets on the river will put 7.5BB in the pot. You'll have to invest 2BB to get to showdown if your plan works. 7.5:2 = 3.75:1 which still isn't good enough. So, in this situation the odds call for you to lay the hand down on the turn. If the other player we thought might fold to your checkraise on the river would actually call, you're getting closer to proper odds with 8.5BB in the pot, which is 4.25:1.

Add in another player and the situation changes, and you can have proper odds to call.

The math of the game is the hardest part for me. There may be mistakes in here, and I hope someone can correct me if I'm way off-base.

Regards,

T

[BUD]

I personally like simple math. Try using the # of cards that will make your hand ( 8 on an outside straight draw) multiply by 2 to get % on the chance of hitting on the turn or 4% to figure if it wil hit on either the turn or river. Compare that % to the % that your call is to the pot. I am sure someone else can explain this better.
thanx
bud

[SheridanCat]

[ QUOTE ]
I personally like simple math.

[/ QUOTE ]

The math is pretty close, but you're left with a probability. Do you have a simple method for converting that to odds for comparison to the odds the pot is giving? Trying to figure the odds on a 16% probability might be difficult to do in the heat of a hand.

Regards,

T

[BUD]

It is easier for me to do that than to use odds. of course i use a feel for additional bets, then i compare the % of making the hand vs. the pot and how many more bets i should get ( usually just figure i need to be close to call). i have never thought like a mathematician, and have a hard time w odds. maybe i am all wrong. please tel me where my thought may be faulty.
thanx
bud

[GailMI]

This is the method I use also, but very haphazardly, because my limited math skills, in a pinch, really freeze up. But I had read that it was #of outs x 2 plus 1? Think I read that in a cardplayer article or something--the topic was a quick & dirty way to estimate pot odds. Then (again, because of my limited math ability)I generally round it to something more workable in my feeble mind. So, if I have 8 outs, I come up with 17% (and I think a little less than 20%), so I figure I need MORE that 5x the bet to be in the pot in order for me to call. If I have 14 outs, it’s 29% so I figure as long as the pot is 3x the bet, I call.

Am I anywhere in the ballpark here? Or did I read this entirely article wrong?

[GvegasTiger]

The easiest thing i have found is to memorize an odds chart. I found one on TexasHoldem-Poker.com and its been greate. Of course you have to memorize the thing but you have to memorize when playing poker either way you look at it.

[SheridanCat]

[ QUOTE ]
please tel me where my thought may be faulty.


[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I'm not saying you're wrong. The percentages you get are probably close enough. I'm just not clear how you take something like 16% and compare it to a pot that's offering you, say, 5.5:1 on your call. There's an extra math step that you're leaving out that, in fact, makes it harder to use probabilities in my mind. If it works for you, that's great.

Regards,

T