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#1
01-19-2005, 10:20 PM
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Teaching a friend (semi-hypothetical)
I had a good friend ask me tonight to teach him how to play poker. I don't know that he was entirely serious about it, and I don't know that he has the right sort of temperment for the game, but it got me to thinking:
Suppose that Ed Miller took a random American adult, and gave him the following: - A year's worth of intensive lessons, twice a week for four hours per session. - A bankroll for 100,000 hands of low-limit Texas Hold 'em, defined as 2/4 Party Poker or 5/10 B&M. - An Internet-ready computer - A full complement of 2+2 books. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] What is the percent chance that this adult would become a good enough poker player by the end of the year to be able to support himself by playing the game, defined as earning $50,000 annually? 
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#3
01-19-2005, 10:32 PM
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Re: Teaching a friend (semi-hypothetical)
[ QUOTE ]
Would this random adult have the desire and drive to succeed, or would he be a lazy ass? [/ QUOTE ] Think of it as a prize package. This person is not obligated to use the lessons or the bankroll, any more than they'd be obligated to actually go to Paris if they won a trip to Paris. But everything is offered to him free of charge. The only stipulation I'll place is that the bankroll is non-transferrable, meaning that it can be used for poker at the specified limits only.
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#5
01-19-2005, 10:37 PM
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Re: Teaching a friend (semi-hypothetical)
[ QUOTE ]
a dedicated student: > 80% [/ QUOTE ] hmmm, upon thinking, its probably closer to 90 < x < 96 for those limits assuming the person works a full schedule and doesn't leak money on tilt or on other casino games...
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#6
01-19-2005, 10:34 PM
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Re: Teaching a friend (semi-hypothetical)
Me and balkii have/are teaching 5 people to play poker. One is already pro, one is almost pro, one is not even close, one is just too lazy and one i just started teaching like a week ago.
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#7
01-20-2005, 01:07 AM
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Re: Teaching a friend (semi-hypothetical)
[ QUOTE ]
Me and balkii have/are teaching 5 people to play poker. One is already pro, one is almost pro, one is not even close, one is just too lazy and one i just started teaching like a week ago. [/ QUOTE ] Am I one of these 5 people? If so, which one?
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#9
01-19-2005, 11:28 PM
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Re: Teaching a friend (semi-hypothetical)
Don't know.
I'd think about 50% of adults have the mental capacity to become $50k an year good. Hard to make any estimate here though. I may be totally off. Most random adult don't want to put the time and effort in. Maybe only 30% want to do that. Out of them I'd guess a third have the drive to do it. Then we're down to 10% there. A bunch of estimates. .50*.10 = .05 = 5% A dedicated student is most often smartish and not lazy, so for one of those I'd guess it's very high. Over 80%.
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