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#1
01-19-2005, 03:01 AM
 jimymat Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Kansas City Posts: 90
What are the odds

I hold 66 and opponent holds 44,
flop comes 644,
I fill my depends when the cards are flipped.

What are the odds of that flop with those holdings, roughly. Also how would you figure them, if you dont mind. I can not find anything online that can help. Super Systems puts quads at 407-1 and the full house and 1632-1 on the full boat. Sound right?
#2
01-19-2005, 03:14 AM
 GuyOnTilt Senior Member Join Date: May 2003 Location: Southern California Posts: 2,405
Re: What are the odds

Edit: Even quick thinking made me realize this is really wrong. I'll get back in sec...

Re-edit: Okay, me gets it now. 8647:1 against.

GoT
#3
01-19-2005, 03:20 AM
 gaming_mouse Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: my hero is sfer Posts: 2,480
Re: What are the odds

There are 2 sixes left, so that means 2 possible flops that contain 1 six and 2 fours.

There are 48 cards left. The odds are:

2/(48 choose 3) = 0.000115633673, or 1 in 8648.

Unlikely, but not spectacularly so.

The question you perhaps really want to ask is: Given that you have a 66, what is the chance that some oppo has another pocket pair, and that the flop gives him quads and gives you a set?

The answer depends on the number of opponents, but it will at least twice as unlikely as the answer to your original question, I'd say.

gm

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