Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-19-2005, 03:01 AM
jimymat jimymat is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 90
Default What are the odds

I hold 66 and opponent holds 44,
flop comes 644,
I fill my depends when the cards are flipped.

What are the odds of that flop with those holdings, roughly. Also how would you figure them, if you dont mind. I can not find anything online that can help. Super Systems puts quads at 407-1 and the full house and 1632-1 on the full boat. Sound right?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-19-2005, 03:14 AM
GuyOnTilt GuyOnTilt is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Southern California
Posts: 2,405
Default Re: What are the odds

Edit: Even quick thinking made me realize this is really wrong. I'll get back in sec...

Re-edit: Okay, me gets it now. 8647:1 against.

GoT
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-19-2005, 03:20 AM
gaming_mouse gaming_mouse is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: my hero is sfer
Posts: 2,480
Default Re: What are the odds

There are 2 sixes left, so that means 2 possible flops that contain 1 six and 2 fours.

There are 48 cards left. The odds are:

2/(48 choose 3) = 0.000115633673, or 1 in 8648.

Unlikely, but not spectacularly so.

The question you perhaps really want to ask is: Given that you have a 66, what is the chance that some oppo has another pocket pair, and that the flop gives him quads and gives you a set?

The answer depends on the number of opponents, but it will at least twice as unlikely as the answer to your original question, I'd say.

gm
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:51 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.