folding a big draw

[scooby]

I'm playing 5/5 at the woods and have about 1000 behind. Unknown limps, solid, non-tricky raises to 25 with about 800 behind, Excellent player cold calls, a LAG calls, I call in CO with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB folds, limper come along. 5 to flop with about 125 in it of:
7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Limper checks, PFR reaches for chips and then checks, excellent player bets 100 (he has me covered) LAG then thinks for a moment and says, "How much do you like your hand?" and pushes for 500.

I fold. Comments?

[lapoker17]

He's likely on a draw too, so you have to adjust your outs - I would guess that your diamond draw is dead. I think your fold was correct, though I know it's difficult to lay down a hand like that.

[exeph]

It seems like the only way your fold is good is if you're against AKd, wrecking your draw. If you're against overpairs or oversets you're missing a lot of value by staying out of this one. I'm sure you'd rather be pushing so that you'd have their folding equity, but I think you still have to get in there.

[lapoker17]

AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is not the only hand that wrecks your draw, Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Kx [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] does as well, and there's still Excellent Player left to act, who could also be on a draw or a set - Folding is correct.

[Matt Flynn]

you have $25 in the pot. your superdraw is only super if a bigger flush draw does not get all in. even if your draw is good you are only ahead a little unless both opponents get all in with pair-type hands. plus you get zero fold equity because LAG went all in. you may be slightly pos EV here, but you could also be crushed. i'd wait for a better spot. fold.

matt

matt

[exeph]

You're right, picking out AKd was dumb -- we could be hurt by a much smaller hand, and LAG would most likely be raising PF with that holding. Suppose LAG has the Ax of diamonds. So if you push and the expert folds, with the money in the pot already you're neutral EV. If the expert calls with anything less than a set, you're neutral EV on the side pot. The only time you're in real trouble is if the expert has a set, in which case it seems you rate to lose about $450 in EV on the hand.

I agree hero can probably find a better spot for his money, but still there has to be a higher draw and a monster hand out there to make the hand bad for you.

[danderso8]

I don't play a lot of NL, but here's my thoughts...

You have 15 outs, but let's discount that a bit for the times your diamonds or Kings are no good...call it 12 outs.

You say the PFR is "non-tricky", so I'll say he wasn't going for the CR and will be folding. I'll also guess the unknown will fold most of the time.

If you call, let's say the excellent player folds half the time, puts you all in half the time, and never just calls. Probably doesn't change much if you push, but that will increase the likelihood of unknown folding. Since you are on a draw, you don't really want that, so that leaves us with call or fold.

Your odds: ((725*1/2)+(1625*1/2)) to (500*1/2 + 1000*1/2)=1175:750
You will win (12/47+12/48) or about half the time, for a net EV of (1175-750)/2 or $212/hand if you call.

That seems quite a bit off from the other posters...it looks like i am a lot more optimistic that the diamonds are live than most...or are my other assumptions way off?

(I'm also assuming it's not a tournament and that the $1000 doesn't represent hero's entire bankroll.)

--Dan

[kim2005]

I auto fold, both your the draw is not nut, if he just call 100 u may raise all in or raise to 400 and push 600 on turn.

[TStoneMBD]

i like the fold. its not to the nuts and you have to figure the pusher has a set or a bigger draw here 90% of the time. a set really hurts your draw. if you call the 500 then the excellent player is poised to fold unless he has a bigger draw or a set as well. therefore youre getting your money heads up here vs a bigger diamond draw a portion of the time with little equity when you are in fact racing.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
you have $25 in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That really doesn't matter though right?