A 15-30 hand.

[Vince Lepore]

Bellagio. 15-30 Holdem.

EP very loose-passive player limps. Hero in MP raises with two black Aces. EP calls and they take the flop Heads-up.
The flop: Kd,Qs,9d. EP-check, MP-bet, EP-calls. The turn-3h.
EP-check, MP-bet, EP-Raises, MP folds.

Was MP correct to fold on the turn?

Vince

[CardSharpCook]

You know what, I change my answer, fold is good. There are some players who will NEVER raise without two pair or better, your description is of such a player. Good fold. Saved 2 BB.

CSC

[AlwaysWrong]

This strikes me as a poll about how much we trust your read. How "very" loose-passive is he? If he will never check-raise with less than two-pair, it's obviously a fold. If he will check-raise with just a K, it's obviously a call or raise situation. I don't think there's a "correct" answer unless we know your opponent better than you do.

[Vince Lepore]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's a "correct" answer unless we know your opponent better than you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was not the player that made the decision to fold. I questioned the fold. This question like most poker questions is best answerd with it depends. I did indicate that the opponent was very loose and passive. Given that this read is correct one should be able to determine the correct play on the turn. I peronally have trouble folding an over pair to the board unless I am obviously beat. I don't believe that this is an obvious case.

Vince

[skp]

This is a clear call against almost anybody on the turn. You may find a fold on the river against some guys if the board doesn't pair or if you don't spike an ace.

[weevil]

Yes, he probably has two pair, I wouldn't give him credit for the set, BUT it's 13 SBs coming to you for four, and you can expect to get two more BBs from him on the river, so your implied pot odds are 4:17 or a little better than 1:4. I think more than 70% of the time a loose passive like this has K3 catching two pair on the river. Which leaves you eight outs or about 4.75:1. I think the uncertainty of him having two pair makes up for the odds gap, what do you think? Perhaps he has Q3 and if the queen comes you make a bad call to his raise thinking you counterfeited him but now he's filled up and reraises you? I can see a lot of bad stuff happening on the river.. probably safest to fold now that I think about it, especially since some loose passive players will get a strong hand such as QK on the flop and wait until the turn to raise, or maybe a set.

[elysium]

hi vince

good post. the pot isn't large, the turn check-raiser is loose enough to have a hand that may have flopped powerfully, and he is also passive and unlikely to be making a move. on the flip side, while some of the possible holdings that the bettor is check-raising with could be overtaken by AA river improvement, and one need always consider that possibility in this situation with an overpair, along with possibly even being in the lead very occasionally, it just doesn't seem that calling is worth it. why take the chance? the risk is too high for the pot odds.

what was that you say? you might spike?!

you might spike. oh, the man on the moon.

no, the risk is too great. if we are going to vote to at least call the check-raise, the risk involved in trying to win this pot isn't the reason that we won't be folding. clearly, attempting to scoop this pot is an -ev proposition; however, we must still call the check-raise.

while folding may save us a couple of BB, mucking our AA overpair would cost us at least that much and probably more, over the course of this session and perhaps the next.

good players do not muck AA in this spot. once a player knows that he is capable of making this type of laydown, he loses what the better players call follow through. some players might call it grit, as in 'gritting of the teeth and then making a daring raise or reraise', but actually the top players do not gnash and grind their teeth as is so often heard. firstly, gnashing gives away too much information about how comfortable the player is with his holding. hold onto that idea for a second because we are getting to the main reason, or, more thoroughly, the underlying concept of the principle about why we call. i was going to do the secondly thing but, no. damage done to tooth enamel by gnashing your teeth is for another forum. but whew, there sure are a lot of poker players with rotten teeth. i mean come on people. you all need to brush more regularly. you need tartar control. and stop pulling your teeth out. the first little thing goes wrong and you're tying a string. hasn't anyone heard of root canal? teeth people teeth. a little teeth please.

you follow through. the gritting,....no,no. writers all over the country have you people gritting every time you post a blind. every time you get up to go to the bathroom. you might say john wayne had grit, but even in the true grit part of the movie, when he had his horse's reins between his teeth firing at ned pepper with a rifle in one hand and six shooter in the other, the director made sure that the duke, although gritting at the time, didn't also grind his teeth together.

very bad for the enamel.

the director looked the duke in the mouth, then walked over and shot pepper.

you must never fold in this spot. the better players have follow through in their game. they have 'i don't care what you have, WHAM!' in their game. the better players say 'whoopety-doo, whoopety-doo, i'm calling you!' all of which they put into their game. the better players know how devestating becoming too analytical can be. they also know how hard it is to seem to be casual about the risks that he is so well aware of, because he knows how contagious decision fret is and doesn't want an epidemic of considered laydowns to breakout. in fact, he the best players are closet analysts and closet risk investigators. what they know about this game can make anyone think long and hard. what the best players know about this game can be frightening. they are the best players. if they don't know, who does? and the other players are constantly nagging the best players for more and more horrifying analytical information; 'what kind of danger are we in? what kind of danger are we in?' they ask rapidly and successively of the better players. 'whoopety-doo, whoopety-doo!', the best players answer back, 'oink, oink, oink, squeal like a piggie....weee!'. the best players seem to be carefree because just like decision fret is contagious, carefreeness is also contagious. and the best players understand the positive value of carefreeness even though it's free....almost.

the best players have to work, actually, at appearing to be carefree at a time that they are actually heavily involved in a challenging decision making process, something that takes a bit practice. even the best players must practice at appearing seemingly carefree while making a tough decision. once mastered, they must keep their talent sharp. these highly developed players also know their weaknesses, and just how fickle their craft is; a bad hair day can wreak havoc to a carefree image. so as much as the weight of the world may, at times, bear down upon these great players' shoulders, he resists carefreely. but he must believe very strongly and actually become truly carefree, at times, to freshen his belief because being carefree can be so odious a burden while also, at the same time, in the middle of a trying betting decision that is producing an urge to grit which is in direct competition with your strenuous effort to keep carefreely smiling away. the great player does that. he believes so that he can better pretend.

conversely, so fickle is his art, upon whom only he has himself to rely for increased learning; if he needs motivation he must rally himself; if he is in need of coaching he must coach himself, etc., etc., etc.;

you want to know why the top players make the call....casually and carefree? could it be that folding would be admitting to themselves that they really aren't so carefree and casual? or that they really do look deeply into a hand's immediate value, analyze it, and then make considered laydowns? is he calling because, although he doesn't think his hand has a chance now, he knows that as soon as he folds he may then get a nagging feeling that he might have thrown away the best hand? and that the nagging feeling may fester into doubt, psychologically but forcfully, and that this festering doubt he might not be so able to keep hidden? and even while he still may be able to be the kind of player who would always casually call in this posted hold em problem put up for vote, might his fold here sub-optimalize his casual, carefree image or fickle art as it were?

well, i don't know. i make the call because i don't want to have to deal with all that. for me, going against what the top players do makes me feel sub-optimalized. who knows? it could play with how i look. well that's what they say.

i call in this spot, every time.

[BottlesOf]

POTD, it isn't close.

[deadsoon]

Even a loose passive may have ak and slowplayed. Paying two more big bets to win 9, when even is he does have 2 pair you'll win 1/6 times and you're paying 2 to get 7, your would have to have an accurate read like 95% of the time.

[cpk]

Whenever I say, "fold" in a situation like this, I mean, "the money in the pot says to fold." In a game where I know people are watching me, I will have to make a bad call or two to avoid being seen as a folder. Paying off with my overpair and even showing it as a loser will prevent a lot of bluffs later in the session.