Are swings of this size normal?

[Francis]

Hi,

I've been playing a few months, have a total of 5k hands of poke in my life (all tracked in PT).

Like all the other rookies, I've been reading and rereading TOP, SSH and trying to apply the concepts and teachings from these to my game.

I'm playing .5/1 at Party, and I had been grinding out a basically flat BB/100. A bit up, a bit down, but always hoovering around zero. Then a few nights ago, I reread Ed's post on crushing the micro's, and vowed to be more aggressive (my PT numbers label me Tight Aggressive Passive.

I then went on a 200 hand rampage where I was up 90BB's. I've never seen such a spike in my life. Everything went perfectly, everything I had held up, I always had the best hand at showdown, the smaller fishes kept pushing chips into the pot when I had the nuts. So this is poker I thought. I'm going to like this after all.

Then last night, I played the same way, and nothing went right, everything got cracked, I never completed a hand, or that hand was second best every time. I gave back 60BB. Ouch.

How do you tell if your losing is due to poor play, or simply variance? I realize everyone says 5k hands can't be used to determine if your a "winning" player or not, but how should beginners know what they need to work on? And are 90BB swings common over 1 or 2 sessions of say 200 - 300 hands?

Regards,
Francis

[AncientPC]

90 BB = 300 hands * 30 BB/100

No it's not normal, but it's not entirely rare. You really need more than 300 hands though, that's how many hands I play in an hour.

[Francis]

300/hands an hour?

I've been dual tabling to clear the empire bonus, and that keeps me busier than I want to be. I don't know when I'll be ready to do more than 2 tables... It'll take time I'm sure

Thx,
-f-

[Onaflag]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm playing .5/1 at Party, and I had been grinding out a basically flat BB/100

[/ QUOTE ]

As a beginning player there is nothing wrong with breaking even. If I might try reading between the lines here, I think you may have made too many changes to your game all at once. Most, if not all experienced players here would recommend identifying weaknesses in your game using PokerTracker and fixing them ONE AT A TIME.

As a quick example, while I was reviewing my play several months ago (which you should do regularly) I noticed I had been cold calling an awful lot. I remembered a line in SSH that told you how often you should be cold calling and with what cards. Whoa! Was I surprised to re-read that or what!?

Leak identified. For the next 5000 hands I made a conscience effort to notice when I had the urge to cold call and take time to tell myself why its a bad play. Now, many thousand hands later, I don't have to think about it. Leak plugged.

One at a time. That's my advice.

Good luck.

Onaflag...........

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
No it's not normal, but it's not entirely rare. You really need more than 300 hands though, that's how many hands I play in an hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many tables?

[Onaflag]

[ QUOTE ]
How many tables?

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be 6. Online is dealt at an average 50 hands per hour per table. You would almost certainly need a dual monitor setup unless you're playing sites with mini-view unless you have an 8'x12' monitor. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Onaflag.........

[Dangergirl]

Francis,
Try posting some hands in the micro limits section, also read hands there. That is definitely something that helped me improve my game.

[bweiser8311962]

I've been playing since the summer ... And I have come to realize I am just too inconsistent to be a winner. I think I have some kind of Poker ADD ... I play too many hands. I know I play too many hands. But the biggest pots are won by mediocre starting hands.
To answer your question, I think swings are the product of your play. Good players, real good players, may have a down swing, but they know it's generally not their fault. Everyone makes a bad decision now and then. You can get all-in with the best hand after the turn and get a bad call that rivers you.
I think it depends on how you think you are playing. If you are playing correctly, you should win long-term.

[Onaflag]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I play too many hands. But the biggest pots are won by mediocre starting hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

E-e-e-asy now.....slow down there a second. This would imply one can play mediocre hands, get away with it, and win big pots. Those big pots will not make up for the beatings you take otherwise. You should not be playing more than (give or take) 18% of your hands. There aren't many mediocre hands in that group and when there are, they exist only in certain limited situations, like, say, any two suited cards from the small blind in a large pot. Only expert post-flop players (which I am not) can start playing hands you're talking about when they are crearly better than their opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
I think it depends on how you think you are playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

For a beginning player, how you think you're playing is drastically different from how you're really playing. For the most part, there is a correct play for each situation. Learning what they are is what we're all doing here. However you think you play, you're probably wrong. I'm not saying that to you, bweiser, but to the OP and others.

Read the books, study the hands in ML and SS, understand all the types of odds (until you can recite them from memory) and then post hands that made you go, "Huh?"

BTW....a bad call from the villian is profitable for you even if you lose that ONE hand. Those bad calls make the rest of us lots and lots of money over the long haul.

My 2 cents.

Onaflag..........

[Mike Gallo]

Swings do happen.

I do not play online poker, however I can tell you playing b and m poker I have had my shares of ups and downs.

Post some hands for better insight to your play.