Too tight of a fold on the river?

dauler · #1 01-15-2005, 06:03 AM

I think I had been at this table for like 1 orbit or so when this hand came up, so I don't have any reads yet. My main concern is that I may be in the habit of folding strong hands to bets and raises on the river when a scare card comes, how would you change my play? Suggestions on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP1 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (13 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, CO raises, Hero folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Shillx · #2 01-15-2005, 06:09 AM

I'm checking and calling one on this river. I don't want to tell people that folding questionable rivers is a good thing, but a fold is prudent in this spot. Any kind of decent hand reading skill will tell you that CO has a frush.

Brad

Reef · #3 01-15-2005, 06:17 AM

next time check/call the river. CO just cold called and came along for the ride. This says either slowplayed monster or flush draw.

CWsports · #4 01-15-2005, 06:35 AM

fold preflop

siccjay · #5 01-15-2005, 09:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop

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I agree, it makes situations like this one MUCH easier haha

Wario · #6 01-15-2005, 09:36 AM

Fold preflop, your hand is weak.

Flop and turn are good.

I really don't like the check/call river suggestions. 3 sevens is the best hand often here and by checking we are just missing bets all those times we are ahead. CO's coldcalling doesn't mean he had a flush draw, it means he had two cards!

I like bet/call on this river card.

Since you checked you should call the two bets, BB is probably just betting because you checked and he showed aggression earlier. CO will have something like a ten often enough.

dauler · #7 01-15-2005, 08:45 PM

Results in white below: 
BB has Kh 3h (two pair, sevens and threes).
CO has 6d Ad (flush, ace high).
Outcome: CO wins 17 BB. 

I know that K7o isn't that strong of a hand, but on the one orbit that I had seen VPIP had been in the range of 45 percent and these were two of the looser players at the table who had limped, isn't it good enough that I can call for half a bet on the small blind and expect to win the maximum from them when I'm ahead and lose the minimum when I'm behind? I'm confident that my postflop play is far better than theirs.

As far as folding, I was thinking about it later and if I had been the button on that hand with T9s, I would have probably played it in much the same manner as this guy had. Check it out.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

T9s on the button against no raise, a pretty standard call.

Flop: (4 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

I've got 2 overcards and an open ended straight draw, it's possible I'm against a flush draw but I still think that a call is warranted here since I'm more than likely against some type of pair.

Turn: (4 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB raises, MP1 folds, Hero calls, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Calling two cold is somewhat questionable here, but I think that it's the best play. I'll say I'm calling 2.5 cold because I expect SB to sometimes reraise, but other times call, so my effective pot odds on this street would be 9 to 2.5. You can also expect to get paid 1.5 more bets from each player on the river if you make your straight, so make that 12 to 2.5 on a draw with about 8 outs, possibly more if I'm just up against an overplayed 8, possibly less if I'm against a boat or a card that makes me makes their boat. From the way that this has played out a flush draw is very unlikely for our opponents, I'll add to this the information that the BB is a habitual bluffer because I would have been sitting down long enough to know that by now, and SB wouldn't have played a flush draw like this unless perhaps he had T9, 45, 56, 67 of diamonds. So add to our effective odds the possibility of a profitable bluffing opportunity on the river and I think that calling is the best play.

River: (13 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls.

SB has checked, so either he's too lag and overplayed an 8 and finally decided that the board looked sufficiently threatening, or he's tight and realized that the diamond may have screwed him since the button(me) has been looking like he's drawing the whole way. BB raises when he sees the weakness and the scare card on board, and since I know that he's a habitual bluffer I'm likely to have the better hand. I'm not sure whether I have a better hand than SB, but from previous actions he has either overplayed an 8 and wouldn't have the willpower to lay it down, or he's a tight and thinking player and it's quite possible he would lay down 3 7s to an "obvious" flush draw, so raising both for value and as a bluff at the same time becomes far and away the best play in my opinion.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Kh 3h (two pair, sevens and threes).
Hero has Ts 9s (two pair, tens and sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 17 BB. 

Now clearly this sophisticated thinking won't be something I'm up against often, it will be something more like "T9s, call. Strong draw, call. Still got an open ender, call. I backed into top pair, raise". I think a flush draw is more common in this spot than T9, but the pot is laying 8.5 to 1 odds, do you think I'll be dragging this pot less than 12 percent of the time? Unfortunately what was going through my mind is "I'm probably beaten, I don't want to invest more money in this pot", not what percentage of the time I'm beaten. Do you still think that folding was the right call?

Entity · #8 01-15-2005, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
isn't it good enough that I can call for half a bet on the small blind and expect to win the maximum from them when I'm ahead and lose the minimum when I'm behind?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. This is an asbolutely clear fold preflop.

I think your river fold for two cold is fine.

Rob

davelin · #9 01-15-2005, 08:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I know that K7o isn't that strong of a hand...isn't it good enough that I can call for half a bet on the small blind and expect to win the maximum from them when I'm ahead and lose the minimum when I'm behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Losing 4BB isn't a minimum.

dauler · #10 01-15-2005, 09:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Losing 4BB isn't a minimum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was winning 10BBs 83 percent of the time and losing 4BBs 16 percent of the time with that turn, I think that qualifies as winning the maximum and losing the minimum.