Vexing situation I continue to be unable to solve.

[cpk]

Where: Typical Pacific Northwest cardroom.
Limit: 10/20 to 20/40
Type: Filled with young, gambling Asians (YGA) or older people who have been playing in the same joint (OP) since before I was born. Most too loose preflop but playing OK to ex. well postflop. Very tricky.

Hero is on Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG folds. YGA #1 raises from UTG+1. UTG+2 folds. OP calls from MP. MP-2 folds. YGA #2 3-bets. <font color="red">Hero calls.</font> 2 folds. YGA #1 caps. All call.

Flop (pot = 17.5 SB): T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. All check. <font color="red">Hero bets.</font> All call.

Turn (pot = 10.75 BB): 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. All check. <font color="red">Hero bets.</font>. 2 folds. YGA #2 raises.


Q1. <font color="red">Hero ...?</font>
Q2. What if turn raiser was OP?
Q3. What if the turn was a 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] instead?

[BradL]

Hero calls and value bets if checked to on the river...am I missing something? Against many opponents I would lean toward a 3bet but I think I like calling if you are not sure that he either holds a flush draw or an overpair since for a gambler TT is a possibility as is 77 or something stupid like 78s that got way out of hand preflop. If it is OP i think i 3bet for sure.

-Brad

[cpk]

A1. I'm inclined to fold here because YGA #2 here likely has a seven. The problem is that often he will have a bare ten. So I'm at a loss.

A2. In the case of a slightly more cautious player, it's a lot more easy to put them on a 7. Unfortunately, many of these old coots are capable of bluff raises and checkraises, so folding a pot of nearly 14BB in error is not palatable. Plus, I have outs.

A3. It's a lot easier in both cases to call on the turn, because I generally will have 8 outs (unless someone slowplayed a set). The question is--what do I do if I miss? Is this a good chance to save a bet here? Or am I obligated to call this down to stop future bluffs?

I ask these questions because runs of bad cards can cause huge swings if you are forced to call down in these cases to preserve table image. It would be nice to know that I'm worrying too much about preserving image in these games. I just don't have enough experience to rely on my judgement here.

[cpk]

Is it really, truly OK to call this down? Two years ago I'd frequently be told that this is a good time for a laydown. Perhaps if the pot is small? What do you think is a good threshold? 10BB total?

[BradL]

Maybe its just me but theres not a chance I lay this down against v. tricky postflop player. I edited my post to include 3betting as a possibility if you can put him on KK or QQ or a flush draw. You have played the hand meekly up until this point and in no way have you represented aces. His betting could be many hands which you beat at this point. If you do not hold the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I would be even more inclined to 3bet but I dont think I am ever laying this down HU without a good read on my opponent.
-Brad

[cpk]

I wouldn't say "meekly," as the choice preflop was to either cap or call 3 cold. I didn't really want to get into an argument over that.

Nearly always I'll get shown at least three 7s if I call this down. I am trying to avoid results-oriented thinking, and your response helps. Thank you.

[Entity]

I'll be interested to read the comments here, but I assume you've taken into account that there is some reduced likelihood of him holding a 7, though 77 and TT are possible. Even the YGA crowd, it would seem, wouldn't be 3-betting too many hands (maybe suited 7's) preflop, would they? Or are they that loose-aggressive preflop?

Regardless, I think that especially when you called rather than capping preflop, your hand strength is probably somewhat more hidden (I don't know this for sure, as they may be very good hand readers), and they are more likely to try a move on you. I'm calling this down regardless in your situation; I'm also calling down if the pot is 10BB, as it seems that he'll be capable of pulling this move much more often than 20% of the time.

Rob

[Bill C]

There is a comment in SSH that may apply:
"It costs less to draw dead than it does to fold live.." and this is especially true with a good sized pot.

bill

[vmacosta]

You can't possibly fold here. We keep talking about bluff raises, lone 10s, and a bare 7, but I think JJ, QQ, and KK are also quite likely. Tricky post flop players will sometimes check the flop with these hands in a large pot in mid position to hopefully get in a field narrowing raise on the turn if a favorable turn card comes. I know because I used to be one of those players until I realized that not betting here with an overpair gives up to much value to be right (not to mention the fact that I frequently wasn't bet into on the turn anyway). Bottom line: your calling down for value, not image.

[fyodor]

Might have simplified things if you had done the capping preflop yourself. If he thinks at all about your hand he has to believe you have a big pair to have called 3 cold. he also has to think the pair is not AA and maybe not even KK because just about anyone caps with those. So maybe he puts you on QQ or JJ.

If he had a big pair himself you would think he would have bet the flop. Why check with an overpair to the board? So now when everyone else drops he fires in the checkraise.

So he thinks he has you beat or he thinks you have something you will lay down.

The only likely hands that I think he might play this way are TT in which case you are drawing thin, or 2 spades with the Ace. I'm not going to worry about 77 which is remote. A7 is a pretty loose preflop 3 bet even suited but I guess it is just as much a concern as TT.

All in all I think you are ahead or will suck out enough times to make calling down correct. If it was OP it would be a little thinner as he only called 2 cold preflop and is more likely to have A7s. 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I call for sure.

The only thing that stops me from 3 betting in either case is the fact he 3 bet preflop but then checked the flop. It screams big hand. I'm not folding though because I also hear "missed completely"