8-handed online 20/40: shaky protection

[astroglide]

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

overlimp is simple for me here, no line on the limper and the table doesn't seem crazy. bb calling the 3bet is enough for me to make a "colorful" call here. i'm not necessarily expecting a cap because it was a button raise.

Flop: (21 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, Hero calls.

backdoor and gutshot. i'm expecting to call something back to me, but ideally i'd like to get a fold out of somebody with an ace to turn my 4-outer with a backdoor flush into a 6-outer with a backdoor flush. i'm sure queens or kings are out there.

[mmcd]

What's MP1's story? I'll usually only limp along w/ a hand like A8s if the open limp came from EP or if there is more than limper in front of me. When faced with an open limp from MP or later, I'll almost always raise in an attempt to isolate, and/or get the button.

edit: I just reread your post and saw that you had no read on the open limper, but generally speaking, I think the types of players who open limp in MP are the types you won't mind isolating w/ A8s.

Postflop looks fine to me. The pots gigantic and getting hands like AQ/AJ to fold is well worth an extra sb or 2 IMO.

[skp]

Well, all that italicized stuff leaves us nothing more to talk about...well, almost nothing as mmcd may have a good point about the preflop raise but I too slightly prefer the overlimp but it depends...

Anyway, well played.

[lil feller]

The pre-flop play seems like a coin toss to me. Sometimes I'll raise this sort of player with this sort of hand, sometimes I'll overlimp, depends on some other variables. I really like your flop play, as you surely got A-Big in the button to fold. I might be concerned that the SB has AA, given the flop cap and the action pre-flop, but KK or QQ isn't certainly more likely. I'm assuming you go into "call unless I hit mode" on the turn, and muck the river?

[astroglide]

yes, call unless i hit. if i turned an ace, i'd raise the river and fold to a threebet. if i rivered an ace, i'd raise and fold to a threebet.

[disjunction]

I'm going to try to take a stab at the flop with some math, which I'm sure will be ignored:

There are ~25 small bets in the pot, you're definitely calling, and raising costs you an extra 1.5 (assuming a 50% chance of a cap), so you need around 16:1 odds. How often is the Button on a better ace? Assuming 50%, you're buying 2 outs half the time, equivalently 1 out. Assuming you'll stay to the river, you have a 1/25 chance of hitting your out. On that math I'd say calling is best, but raising isn't terrible considering we're only talking of a couple %, and lots of other good stuff (free cards, etc) can happen.

But if you think you could find a way where SB could be checkraising top pair only (I can't, unless he calls preflop with connectors), your 8 might be good, and then I'd say raise.

These seem to be the issues, to me.

[skp]

Let's say that you hit an Ace on the turn and you are up against KK. Curious as to why you would want to wait until the river to raise? The pot is huge. That dude with the Kk will not fold the turn if you raise. He will call and pay off on the river to boot. But if you just call the turn, he may not bet the river given teh Ace on board. Also, a scare card (like a 3,5 or 8) might show up giving him another reason not to bet.

I suppose the one ad of waiting to raise the river is that he is less likely to 3 bet you (depending on the river card) if he has AA or AK. But overall, I like the turn raise in this spot.

[astroglide]

if i raise the turn and he threebets, i would have to call and it would be much more inducing to make a "this eats balls but the pot is massive" river call. i can muster up some folds that would make some heads around here spin but even i only have so much of a tolerance for pot sizes. so basically a turn raise can cost me an extra 2 bets unimproved. a river threebet means BUSINESS. the scare card factor is valid, but i don't think the ace would slow this guy down from betting the river with his intensity and my flop play. there's still a decent possibility that i would raise a turned ace in the actual moment though.

[Paluka]

I think the preflop limp is absolute fine. Calling 2 bets back to me preflop is always the spot where I'm really not sure what to do. I usuall lean towards calling because these pots are usually enormous and seeing the flop is a good thing. I like when you 3 bet the flop in hopes to knock out the ace behind you, seems like a good play that could knock out a guy and get yo a free cards on the turn. What I'm not sure about is your initial flop bet.

[skp]

I think the overriding factor is the likelihood that this guy will bet his KK on the river even with the Ace out there. If, as you say, this guy is likely to bet, then I like your line but against most guys, I like the turn raise line better.