Loose game decisions

haakee · #1 01-13-2005, 06:46 PM

Live (in both senses of the word) 80-160 game. Half the table is on tilt. People love to see the flop, but play okay (but not great) postflop. About 5 minutes ago one of the live ones bitched about how I played one hand every 30 minutes, came in for a raise and picked up the pot on the flop whereas he raised constantly and 5 people would see the flop. So my image is tight.

Four limpers to me in the CO. I raise with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] because of my image and because the pot is going to be monstrous if I do hit my flush. Also I'd love to have the button. Button cold-calls (he's a bit loose, and a bit passive, but not terrible). So much for that part of my plan. Both blinds call as do all the limpers. 8 of us see the flop for 16SB.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. All check to me and I check. Button bets, 5 people call, and I call.

Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. All check to the button who bets. 3 people call. 2 of them are quite loose. I don't think the button will re-raise without a very big hand. Call or raise?

J.A.Sucker · #2 01-13-2005, 07:00 PM

You have to raise here, even if you are going to get three-bet. Two reasons for this: either you will get the pot headsup or you'll get a bunch of callers, where you're getting a good price on your decent draw. Personally, I'd prefer to get it headsup, where you may win if you fire again on the river, regardless of what comes off.

theBruiser500 · #3 01-13-2005, 07:07 PM

"Personally, I'd prefer to get it headsup, where you may win if you fire again on the river, regardless of what comes off."

But if you're hoping he can win this hand on the river as a bluff, what hand could he be representing? The way he played it makes no sense, I can only think of 444 as a made hand he has.

haakee · #4 01-13-2005, 07:12 PM

A number of the guys in this game aren't capable of thinking as deeply as you are about what my hand might be.

J.A.Sucker · #5 01-13-2005, 07:35 PM

And this is the point. You'd be surprised what people will fold here. After all, you've "obviously" got a monster made hand here after checkraising this huge field on the turn. If you get reraised on the turn and it's headsup, then fine, you will likely have to give it up. However, this is a small price to pay to try to win this thing. Plus, you may have cleaned up your A outs. Most of the time, you'll just be called, and probably in one or two spots. Then, you're obligated to fire away on the end and see what happens. I'm sure that this is what hakee did here.

weevil · #6 01-13-2005, 07:58 PM

At this point there are 11 BB in the pot, so it's 11:1 to you. You have 12 outs and the ace might still be an out. Give yourself a out for that to (wouldn't give myself all three). So you have 2.5:1 on a 11:1 draw. Your pot equity is huge, and you can expect to make at least three more BBs on the river if you make it. I'd say your implied odds are more along the lines of 14:1 and possibly greater based on your position if you can trap people for two bets. A raise makes those implied odds to be 16:2 or 8:1 because of the money you've put in. So raising here is a huge EV. Get the money in while people are still drawing and willing to put money in.

JasonP530 · #7 01-13-2005, 09:11 PM

Is check calling the flop SOP in this hand?

haakee · #8 01-13-2005, 10:26 PM

Have you read Noted Poker Authority Ed Miller's book? If not, I highly recommend it to you. I'm not folding here. Backdoor flush plus an overcard getting 22:1 closing the action is a no-brainer.

Or were you considering betting out here against 7 opponents?

Garland · #9 01-13-2005, 11:45 PM

Hmm...you have to love your hand here on the turn. Nine flush outs, seven which will bring you the nuts, and four gutshots...none which bring you the nuts, but you should be willing to pump the pot a few times if you hit it.

The limit is a bit out of my range at the moment, but I would check-raise for several reasons here.

1) If all the callers call, you are hopefully tying more people to the river if you hit one of your flush outs or your gutshots. You are essentially raising for value with 15.5 BB already in the pot.

2) Causing one or some callers to fold may clean up some outs in case you hit your A.

3) You may cause the button to fold leaving you more options on the river if you should miss. You may take the free showdown with A high or bluff at the pot should you miss. If you hit your A, you can value bet easier.

4) Should you be reraised by anyone, you won't feel compelled to call the river even if you hit your A, since you can be fairly confident someone has a monster.

5) Deception. Players with sets or two pair may give you excessive action (overplay) should you hit your gutshot.

Garland

na4bart · #10 01-14-2005, 12:34 AM

By all means raise. The pot is already so large it is worth taking some chances to give yourself your best shot at winning it. Worst case is button having a set, 3 betting, all fold and you are still getting the correct price considering your outs. Best case, all call, you hit the heart and get paid off in a HUGE pot. Raise. I suspect this is exactly what you did. Curious to know.