Pokerstars $215 Hand analysis

[Toro]

Thoughts on this hand, please.

*********** # 12 **************
PokerStars Game #1057978822: Tournament #4179460, Hold'em No Limit - Level I
(10/20) - 2005/01/09 - 16:46:05 (ET)
Table '4179460 71' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: soho kid 11 (2470 in chips)
Seat 2: BigDaddyR (2480 in chips)
Seat 3: Toro85 (3030 in chips)
Seat 4: booksei (2550 in chips)
Seat 5: smalldog (2500 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: Mr. Buckey (1980 in chips)
Seat 7: rompas (2550 in chips)
Seat 8: Berkshire (2500 in chips)
Seat 9: elrobobo (2280 in chips)
booksei: posts small blind 10
smalldog: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Toro85 [Ac As]
Mr. Buckey: folds
Toro85 is connected
rompas: folds
Berkshire: folds
elrobobo: calls 20
soho kid 11 has timed out
soho kid 11: folds
soho kid 11 is sitting out
BigDaddyR: folds
Toro85: raises 80 to 100
booksei: folds
smalldog: folds
elrobobo: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [Ah 8d 2c]
elrobobo: checks
Toro85: bets 120
elrobobo: calls 120
*** TURN *** [Ah 8d 2c] [Th]
elrobobo: checks
Toro85: checks
*** RIVER *** [Ah 8d 2c Th] [4c]
elrobobo: bets 200
Toro85: raises ???

Question #1: What hand or hands do you put my opp on?
Question #2: How much do you raise here?

[37offsuit]

It looks like a semi-bluff by him, my guess would be a pair between the T and the A. The only other thing I could think of is a set looking to check raise the turn (where you checked behind), but with either of these I'm trying to figure out how much to raise that he might call with his semi-bluff but also looks weak enough for him to either try to steal this one by pushing. If he has a set or the dreaded 35o, he's going to let you know by reraising.

So I might reraise a low, yet strange amount, like 315 or so.

[Mammux]

I'd overbet, hoping that he has a set or two pair with ax. Whether this is better than a small bet depends on your read of him. Will he call you with a mediocre hand if he thinks you are bluffing?

-Magnus

[schwza]

if he's any good, i think it's probably 88. i'd be a little surprised to see a limp-call with A8s or A2s, but it's possible. if he's bad, could be a hand like 78 or 99.

i think the biggest question here is what hands the villain will reraise with. i can't imagine him not reraising 88, so the chips are going in there anyway. with aces up, though, he might just call a river raise. if he has AQ/AJ, me will probably call a small river raise, but i don't think those hands are too likely. i think you should make a reasonably big raise to charge two pair, and maybe you'll get lucky and get a loose call from AJ.

he has T1860 left and the pot is 670 (870 with your call). making it 700 to go seems about right.

[Toro]

OK, it looks like we're all on about the same wave length. I put him on either 2 pair or a lower set and wanted to bet enough to charge him and also give him an opportunity to re-raise if he had a set of eights or tens. So the hand continued thusly:

Toro85: raises 400 to 600
elrobobo: raises 900 to 1500

Anyone slow down here or do you get it all in?

[partygirluk]

The only thing you are behind is 35 right? I am happy to get it all in.

[Sam T.]

If he's calling a pre-flop raise to play 3-5 heads up, he's going to need your chips. Easy call.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone slow down here or do you get it all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

ANY raise you make at that point is pretty much going to put him all in, and if he has a set or two pair, he's going to consider himself pot committed and call.

If the real point of this is "can you put him on the straight" after he reraises you, well, I just can't do it.

[Toro]

OK, here's the end of it:

Toro85: raises 1310 to 2810 and is all-in
elrobobo: calls 560 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Toro85: shows [Ac As] (three of a kind, Aces)
elrobobo: shows [3h 5h] (a straight, Ace to Five)
elrobobo collected 4590 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4590 | Rake 0
Board [Ah 8d 2c Th 4c]
Seat 1: soho kid 11 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: BigDaddyR folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Toro85 (button) showed [Ac As] and lost with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 4: booksei (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: smalldog (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Mr. Buckey folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: rompas folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Berkshire folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: elrobobo showed [3h 5h] and won (4590) with a straight, Ace to Five

I pretty much knew that everyone would agree with the way I played this hand. So why did I post it? To sneak in a bad beat? No, not at all. The reason I posted this hand is because, and maybe this belongs in the psychology forum, is that every six months or so I slow play a monster like this and it seems every time I do, I get it stuck up my asss.

Then what I tend to do is play everything fast and not get full value from my big hands. So I guess what I'm looking for is assurance that it's correct to try and milk hands such as this as I did.

[adanthar]

If he called 120 with a gutshot he's going to call xxx more than that with a flush draw added to it, where x is more than you're going to bet.

No biggie; you're losing the hand anyway.