Turn Decision

[easypete]

<font color="purple">Table was pretty loose, semi-aggressive. Table averages were about 48/8.

MP notes:
{{sLA-A - PFR 8 - VP 11
AF 2.9 - CCPF 0 - TH 3,410
RAISE WITH AA(12) KK(11) AQo(10) AKo(10) TT(7) 99(6) QQ(6)}}
</font>

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

<font color="purple">OK... not a great call, but it's a +EV hand here. I'm getting 7.4:1 for the call.

J8s 54.2 37.5 29.1 24.0 20.5

vs 3 opponents, it's 4.1% ahead, and I'm not paying full price here.</font>

Flop: (8.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="purple">Hero ???</font>

[sthief09]

check-raise the flop for value, and cap the turn and it's not close, but be wary if the board pairs

[tongni]

The only logical hands here are Axd, a set, or AdAx. I think it's much more likely he has a set here, I cap the turn and checkcall a paired river, and bet/call raise on a non paired one. If another diamond falls, I think I'd bet anda call a raise still.

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
check-raise the flop for value

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally, this is standard for me. I didn't c/r flop this time, because CO and button were a little skiddish. Once they saw aggression, they only stayed in with decent hands/draws. If I raised here, I'm sure MP would have 3-bet and I stood a good chance of losing both CO and button, making the c/r -EV. I figured that if I waited for the turn and c/r a flush, I would get at least one of them stuck for 1 or 2 bets on turn.

[ QUOTE ]
cap the turn and it's not close, but be wary if the board pairs

[/ QUOTE ]

I capped the turn and led into MP on the river (which was a blank). He raised, I called.

I'm in the middle of a downswing (100BB+), and I'm still getting used to the aggression here (6k hands into it). I thought I played it close to right, but my confidence is a little broken right now.

What's running through my head is a comment that Dr. Gutshot said about 3-betting at 5/10 short is over aggressive. I've gotten burned about everytime I've done it (3-bet or cap). Maybe there's some validity. I dunno.