trying to drive people out in a big pot....please critique

[meanjean]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

I got a gutshot, maybe two over cards and a backdoor flush draw but thought I would try to drive out other aces...I figured 6 or 7 outs tops

Turn: (12.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, UTG+1 folds.

Heck yeah I'm betting....gutshot plus nut flush draw


River: (14.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

woohoo fate favors fools

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

[Entity]

Jean,

Hmm. Rereading, doing math, looking at Button's preflop raise. I'm not so sure about the flop play anymore, but I'll concede that I think it's close. Because of the extremely coordinated nature of the board, I really don't think a pair of Aces is going to take it down very often. Add in the fact that you'll get 3-bet some of the time, and that you'll fold Button in a large pot only occasionally, and I guess I don't like it as much as my original thoughts.

I definitely don't like the turn bet, though, and I hope you can see why. How many outs do you have? How many opponents? Given Button's 3-bet on the flop, what is his likely range of hands here?

River is standard.

Rob

[Knoler]

Just call on the flop, IMO. Your diamond outs are tainted, and your 9 outs would make a straight for anyone with an 8. However, you have a solid three outs to the straight and a backdoor flush draw. With the tainted overcards, I'd probably put this at 5 outs.

Two other points -- one, with a 14 SB pot you're not going to clear up many outs with that raise. Eights wont fold, flush draws won't fold. (Although...button may have you outkicked. Maybe you buy an ace out here? Hm...) Two, that's okay, because if you make your hand you'll have a hand that plays strong multiway anyhow.

-Brian

[ugly24]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the turn bet, though, and I hope you can see why. How many outs do you have? How many opponents? Given Button's 3-bet on the flop, what is his likely range of hands here?


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. What if he raises? I don't think you want to pay 2 bets to see the river.

I'm not sure I like the flop raise. Its better than a call, I'll give you that, but I'm not sure a fold isn't in order here. You MIGHT be good if you catch an Ace but you are NOT good if you catch a 9. 6 or 7 outs... OK, and I guess the math says call so why not raise and thin the field.... you talked me into it.

I still don't like the bet on the turn though with the Button having raised PF and 3 bet the flop.

Glad you caught...

Play Well!
[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]The Ugly One! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[TheHybrid144]

Call the flop-you don't drive out much and the preflop raiser could easily 3bet or raise if you call to do some of the work for you. I'd call based on the backdoor flush and gutshot. Turn-this isn't a value bet, and button is going to call you down so you won't be able to take it down with aggression on the last 2 streets if you don't hit. River-standard.

[meanjean]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the turn bet, though, and I hope you can see why. How many outs do you have? How many opponents? Given Button's 3-bet on the flop, what is his likely range of hands here?


[/ QUOTE ]


I agree. What if he raises? I don't think you want to pay 2 bets to see the river.

I'm not sure I like the flop raise. Its better than a call, I'll give you that, but I'm not sure a fold isn't in order here. You MIGHT be good if you catch an Ace but you are NOT good if you catch a 9. 6 or 7 outs... OK, and I guess the math says call so why not raise and thin the field.... you talked me into it.

I still don't like the bet on the turn though with the Button having raised PF and 3 bet the flop.

Glad you caught...

Play Well!
[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]The Ugly One! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

good points...don't want to deal with a reraise

[Shillx]

I like the flop play because if we can get something like AK or AQ to fold, it would be a huge benfit for us if we spike an ace.

Turn bet sucks indeed.

Brad

[TheHybrid144]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop play because if we can get something like AK or AQ to fold, it would be a huge benfit for us if we spike an ace.


[/ QUOTE ]

How often is spiking an ace clinching the pot? If you get the fold you are probably buying ~ 1 out

[meanjean]

Thanks guys you brought up some points that I obviously hadn't considered....like why pay two bets to go for the flush draw.

Results: Villian had KK