STT "luck index"

[Calpeman]

After a terrible run over my STT the last month (about 50), my confidence is getting really bad, even though I know you have to expect these swings. It seemes like I lose 70-80% of all coinflip situations on the bubble so I came up with this idea of creating a so called luck index, to help my confidence. Say a very negative rating would go a long way to explain poor results, and keep me from thinking its something wrong with my game.

The principel is somewhat like the Sklansky dollars I guess. Every preflop push on the bubble that gets called I use the Cardplayer calculator to find the EV and then take the difference between my real results and this EV. The sum will in the long run converge towards 0, netrual luck, a positive number is above average luck and negative bad luck.

There are other luck factors playing an important role. Like the cards you are dealt and bad luck with which cards you push into, but at the moment this would be to complex for me to incorperate into a model.

Of course this would not be of much use to the players who play a ton of STTs and already have a good idea about their ROI, but for someone like me this could help getting a better idea of how I play.

Anyways I am wondering if this is a good idea or if anyone else have tried something similar. Any comments would be appreciated.

[rachelwxm]

hhboy mentioned same idea a short while ago. do a search

[syka16]

Everybody makes costly mistakes and I'm still making minor adjustment to the way I play but if I have a losing batch of 20 games I just attibute it too bad luck and don't worry about what kind of bad luck or analyze it too much. So if you havn't played about 200 SNGs I could see how you're curious as to what your true ROI is and hope there's some way of finding out without playing 500 SNGs. But there really isn't anything available for that. But when I started out I was really lucky in my first 200 SNGs so I never went broke wondering if I was a winning player who ran into bad luck.

[pooh74]

How would it then be used? I.e. what if you were a stack of 4000 calling an allin of 500 from BB? Or are you just interested in pure luck stats...not factoring for one divergence from 0 having a less or greater effect on the outcome from another...IOW, what if I suckout a small stack with 75o vs his KK...big swing in my favor right? But this only gained me 2% in total game chips lets say and maybe no better chance at 1st than before because I was in a huge lead anyway. Now lets say I lose JJ vs KQ and finish 4th...not a huge defeat on the hand as far as EV, but slight swing in negative category. This knocks me out on bubble. NOw, overall the "luck" factor on only these two hands has me in the positive, but since the first big postive swing gave me only slight +EV$ and the second extremely -EV$, the luck factor wont account for this at all...looked at in a vacuum, seems useless...2cents. (although interesting just to see where on the "random walk" you are at the moment)

pooh

[sofere]

I think this is an interesting idea that may help you avoid tilts, but I think it has little value in increasing your skill level. Granted after feeling like you always lose coinflips, you could look back at your stats and say...well whatdya know, I'm really 50/50 in coinflips.

However, IMHO it would be better to maybe keep a tally of how many times you attempted to steal blinds on bubble (a) against short, medium, and big stack, and (b) when you are short, medium, and big stack. Also record the big hands that put you in short stack or built you up to big, and not only analyze if you were the favorite or if u sucked out, but whether it was the right play or not.

Of course this is a helluvalot of work and lord knows I'm too lazy to do it. Maybe I can get one of those travel stenogrophers as seen on Chapelle Show and have them record the stuff for me.