What's my play?

HammerinHank · #1 01-07-2005, 01:21 AM

Final table in live $120 Rebuy MTT is 7 handed. Villain and I are the short stacks with t30,000. Three stacks of about t60-70K and two larger stacks. I post 4K BB and villain is on the button. Villain is a good tournament player, not overly aggressive. I'm the tournament rookie (12th MTT) so I don't have a clear read on his raising hand range in this situation.

It's folded to villain who makes it t12,000. I have KJs. What's my play?

Lloyd · #2 01-07-2005, 02:18 AM

Pass. Too easy for him to have Ax which is ahead of you, or a pair. KJ is not a bad hand to push with but I wouldn't call a raise out of position and you'd be playing it for all your chips one way or another.

Al Mirpuri · #3 01-07-2005, 06:34 AM

This is a hand Villain is going to play as he has pot committed himself. You have an orbit with T24,000~ if you fold now. I think he has you beat and you lay it down.

Dawdy · #4 01-07-2005, 11:12 AM

A tough decision, is he blind stealing esp knowing u dont have the chips to play back at him unless u have a great hand. Youve also said hes a good player.. hmmm KJ suited, BB.. facing a raise from the button on the final table. I must admit my feeling here is to go all in. Your in the money already, he can fold a semi bluff which I tend to believe he has in this situation... KJs is good enough with so few players left... I woudnt expect a call from A rag or small pair.

You want the 18k in the pot and KJs very well could be good enough (hopefully it wont come down to seeing the board).

Dawdy

redeye3030 · #5 01-07-2005, 11:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You want the 18k in the pot and KJs very well could be good enough (hopefully it wont come down to seeing the board).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero doesn't have any fold equity here. If the button folds, he is left with 4BB. If our line is to play for all our chips with KJ, its better to call and push in on the flop(Stop and Go).

That being said, I think Hero should look for a better spot.

JaBlue · #6 01-07-2005, 12:17 PM

This is why its very important to pay attention on previous rounds. If you had noticed that the villain raises his button liberally, you could push over the top of him. Given that you have no reads, though, it would be a gamble to push in this spot.

DVO · #7 01-07-2005, 01:52 PM

I'm going to attempt a Harrington-esque evaluation of this and would like some feedback...

Given the stack sizes I think you are in all -in or fold mode. calling off 30% of your stack is not an option.

Therefore you have to ask if you have any folding equity if you push. I don't think so. If you push, he'd be getting 44k / 18k on his call, which is 2.5 / 1 and too good to pass up. So pushing will not get him to fold.

So now you have to ask yourself if you want to race with this hand.

So let's consider the odds and the likely range of hands he has.

You'll be putting another $26k into a pot that will ultimately be about $62K. that's about 1.3 to 1.

1) If he has AA - pretty unlikely - you're a 5/1 dog.
2) KK is highly unlikely.
3) QQ you are a 2/1 dog.
4) JJ is highly unlikely.
5) TT - 22 you are around 55/45 to 50/50 on the range of these hands.
6)Dominating hands ( A-K, A-J) you are a 2/1 dog.
7)Split Hands ( A-9, A-8, etc) you are a 55/45 dog.

My sense is, about 5% of the time you will be a 5/1 dog. (1 above)
20% of the time you will be a 2/1 dog. ( 3 and 6 above)
65% of the time you are close to a coin flip. say 53/47 dog.
10% of the time he'll be on middle suited connectors or such and you are a slight favorite. say 60/40.

So, you're chnaces at winning are:

.05 X .05 = 2%
.20 times .50=10%
.65 X .47 = 30%
.10 X .60 = 6%

total ~48%.

So the math suggests you have almost a 50% chance of winning, and you are getting 1.3 to 1. It's close, but you can push.

Am I doing this right? I am completely prepared to be shown a major flaw in my thinking. I will say this, my instinct - before I did the math - would be to push, even with no folding equity.

But I tend to be a bit too aggressive.

BTW how the heck do top players figure this out in the heat of battle.........

RobGW · #8 01-07-2005, 02:37 PM

You only have 7xBB left. You are the short stack. This means you will have to take a chance at some point soon. KJs is not a great hand but I think in this instance with so much money out there it is good enough for a race. You have no fold equity but I would say the range of raising hands is quite large here. i.e. he could be raising with a lot of hands, not just premium ones. By pushing, you nullify your positional disadvantage and you get to see all 5 cards.

UOPokerPlayer · #9 01-07-2005, 02:45 PM

My first thought is push, but i could like a stop and go. You're pushing 18k into a 26k pot so you'll get some folding equity on the flop. It seems like the player is trying to get value from his hand; but a good tournament player probably would be more likely to be stealing with an option to get away from his hand. Knowing that, i'd probably lean towards push but i dont think a stop and go is too bad.

esbesb · #10 01-07-2005, 03:36 PM

It's close, but short stacked I fear that KJs is too good to fold here. I would say you have almost no folding equity if you push pre-flop. You might have a bit of folding equity post-flop, as he would have 18k left if the flop misses him. I like stop and go better with a pair, but I'd be inclined to do it with KJs here. I think you are in a situation where you either need play this hand or push on the button or on the cutoff with any two (assuming it's folded to you). Also, this might be a slight -EV play (I don't know), but the question is whether you can expect to have a better opportunity within the next few hands since you will need to make a move soon.