77 UTG - Push, Raise, or fold

[El Maximo]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

SB (t2025)
BB (t490)
Hero (t1995)
Button (t3490)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

Everyone has tightened since we hit the bubble. Im inclined to raise 500-600 here and fold to a reraise. Is a push better. Im not shortstacked and I would hate to push 77 from EP and get called.

[junkmail3]

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Im not shortstacked and I would hate to push 77 from EP and get called.

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This is one area I have trouble with. Do you push (or bet big) and risk missing the money with someone one and a half rounds away from being blinded?

I would usually opt to fold until he's out, then start making a few moves (or wait for the button and then push to steal blinds (though I understand you're not trying to steal necessarily)).

Is this thinking okay with such a short stack, or should I be thinking more aggressive?

I know I should be playing to win, but I'd like to get to the money risk free while someone is sitting at 2.5BB.

[UMTerp]

I like a raise to 600, and a fold if you're raised all-in AND the big blind folds.

I'd violate the 10BB rule here, just because it's catastrophic (in a poker tournament sense) if you get called by a big stack with a bigger pair and you're busted out on the bubble.

If the other large stacks are reasonably intelligent (a stretch in some cases), they'll know your raise is not a steal raise, since the big blind will call almost every time here. They should leave you alone unless you have a hand.

If you are raised and the BB folds, fold. It sucks if this happens since you're out 600 chips, but you actually don't lose that much in ICM, because of the very low stack at the table. If this happens, you'll just have to go into a shell untill the little stack busts out. No more marginal hands til you're in the money. Though next hand, you'll presumably be all-in with a random hand against the little stack.

If you are raised and the BB calls, I'd call, and take my chances at almost tripling up. If there are three of you in, chances are that the larger stack will have a better hand than the big blind, so there's a decent chance you'll get third place money even if you lose the hand.

I posted a hand similar to this maybe two weeks ago (similar stack sizes, I had AQ and I pushed), and I immediately regretted the decision. I was called by the big stack with an inferior hand, and I ended up losing and finishing 4th. It's imperative that if you're going to play this hand for all your chips (which isn't bad), that the big blind play for all of his as well. The raise to 600 accomplishes that.

**EDIT - Now that I think about it, a raise to 500 would accomplish the exact same thing (sending the message that you have a hand), and putting 100 less chips at risk should you be raised. That's what I'd do.

[Unarmed]

I push. SB isn't calling your push without a premium hand given your equal stacks and BBs short stack so you're really only worried about one random hand (button) and 77 has that crushed.

Then again, I do have a lot of 4ths...

[mrbill22]

I think you must decide which is more important, making the money or trying to win. This is a strong hand 4-handed, I would probably raise 500, knowing that I would call a raise. FWIW.

[El Maximo]

Good Post UMTerp. I agree that a 500 raise is the best play here. I raised to 600 and got called by the BB. I think a 500 raise would have accomplished the same thing. Even though Im slightly under 10BB I think this is one time you raise instead of push.

[Mystic]

I agree with UM Terp's line here. You definitely have to fold to a reraise and it isn't close. Depending on how the SB and Button play, a min raise to 400 could do the same job.

On the bubble pushing 77 utg holding 10BB most of the time is silly. If you have 5BB it is correct.

Mystic

[betgo]

Push. You have 10xBB and 3 players to act. There is about a 15% chance one on them has a bigger pair and you are not going to necessarily get called by 88 or 99. Therefore, you have the right odds to make pushing very EV+. I would push with 22.

I don't like a standard raise here with any hand, particularly a medium pair. With 10xBB, you are pot committed, so you usually go allin. When you standard raise, you are just asking the big stack to steal from you. I might make a standard or miniraise with AA or KK, hoping for a big stack to steal from me or other action.

I think you have three moves here regardless of your hand with 10xBB: push, limp, or fold. With 77, I like push. However, usually fold is better, because you will have better chances to play hands in position. If you don't fold, you should usually push.

[adanthar]

Dude, I don't mean to pick on you, but your advice is consistently off. You really need to think about things like this some more.

The 10xBB rule isn't a commandment; it's a guideline you follow because *in general* raising less still makes you pot committed (and at Party, it's more like 8xBB, BTW.) But if you push and get called by AK, you put yourself in a marginally +chipEV situation that is extremely -$EV.

Raise 500/fold is perfect, IMO.

[rachelwxm]

I like raise 500 too. Second option is fold.
If however, short stack act before two big ones, I will fold since it's a clear restealing if they play GOOD. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]