AKs preflop vs. sizable raise

One Armed Dwarf · #1 01-05-2005, 04:18 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) converter

UTG (t880)
UTG+1 (t2130)
MP1 (t2260)
MP2 (t2570)
CO (t1170)
Hero (t1470)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1540)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to t100, CO folds, Hero raises to t1470, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 calls t1370.

Flop: (t2970) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t2970) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t2970) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t2970

Results in white below: 
MP2 has Qd Qh (two pair, queens and fours).
Hero has As Ks (one pair, fours).
Outcome: MP2 wins t2970. 

I think this play was a mistake, but I'd like some feedback.

Assuming that I get called only with AK or a pocket pair, my equity really sucks. I think this might actually be a reasonable assumption - I play very cheap SNGs where barely anyone raises that big without phenomenal hands. As best as I can figure, this play has a negative expectation, but it seems ridiculous to abandon AKs.

Any comments on this analysis? Am I being completely unreasonable in assuming that a low-limit players wouldn't make this raise and call with AQs (which flips it to positive expectation)?

What about if I had cold-called or re-raised 300 or 400?

If I call, I guess I hope for an A or K and make money off of from AQ, KQ, etc.

If I re-raise and I am re-raised all-in, then I am compelled to call. However, opponent might just call with lesser hands such as AQ which might make the play positive expectation.

I'm curious which of these plays you guys would make, and how you would respond to a bet on a missed flop.

TeenerBall · #2 01-05-2005, 10:07 AM

This is one of those times when if you feel like gambling, go ahead and push PF, as you did. Many times you will take it down right there, and many other times you will be shown AQ-AT, especially in cheap buy in SnGs.
When I see a 4xbb raise from MP, I figure it for a small-med PP, so I usually just call and see a flop w/AK, suited or not. Then if the flop doesn't hit you, you can get away from it without getting hurt too badly.
Of course, this is just how I play it in the early levels when I don't really have a read on the raiser.

TJ

KenProspero · #3 01-05-2005, 11:32 AM

First of all, I think we have to ignore the actual results of the hand.

With AKs, you're a big underdog to AA or KK, essentially a coin flip against any lower pair, and a favorite against any other hand.

You've indicated that people don't make big bets in your game unless they have great hands. Assuming that they don't call big bets without great hands either, the situation you're in seems to be the following: Most of the time people will fold to your bet, allowing you to pick up the blinds immediately. When your bet is called, it's mostly a coin flip. Occasionally, you're in big trouble. I suspect that in the long run, the chips you pick up through folds are greater than the ones you lose when you're a big underdog. So, the all-in may be neutral to slightly +EV for you.

On the other hand, the question you have to ask yourself is whether the risk/reward ratio is worth it. If everyone folds, you pick up a few chips. If someone calls, you're 50/50 to either have a nice chip lead or be out of the tourney.

Of course, if people in your game will call the all-in with hands like AQ, KQ, AJ, etc. Then there's probably a large +EV to your play.

One place where I might be critical (but don't know your game well enough) is whether a bet other than all-in would have been better. Again, I'm assuming that your real profit in this play is by getting people to fold (as opposed to from people calling with inferior hands). Unless you like playing all-in coin flips, I think what you want to do is make the minimum bet possible that will get people to fold.

Again, if you think people will call with relative Junk, the analysis changes.

You ask, for example, whether a bet of 300 or 400 would have been better. Really, the question is how many people will call a bet of 400 but would drop if you push.

For what it's worth I don't like all-in coin flips early (I foolishly assume I'm a better player than most at the table). I'd probably bet 400 or (if there are a couple of callers) 500 or so. If I pick up the blinds and small bets, great. If someone calls, that's fine too. If someone raises all-in, I probably swallow hard and call, unless I have some kind of read.

Awesemo · #4 01-05-2005, 11:36 AM

I'd go ahead and call the raise and fold any flop without an ace/king/flushdraw. You have position on him, which makes the situation even more profitable. I think you'd get more value out of the hand if you did not raise allin preflop.

Sam T. · #5 01-05-2005, 12:05 PM

Isn't AK fun?

I think there are a number of acceptable plays here. At this point I probably wouldn't push with AKs, but I won't say it was a mistake.

I also think a case can be made for calling to see the flop. The problem here is that you probably won't get many more chips out of a solid opponent if an A or K falls. (The exception would be against AQ with an Axx flop.) Then again, people do fall in love with their pocket pairs...

Given your stack, I might re-pop him for t3-400, just to see how he reacts. If he comes over the top, it's an easy fold. Where this gets tricky is if the flop is ragged and he checks. Then you've got t800 in the pot, and any bet of consequence is a goodly portion of your stack. If this guy has a brain, he's going to check-raise you, and then you're in real trouble.

I guess I'd vote for calling, but the only wrong answer is folding pre-flop.