putting ppl on hands strictly by VP$IP

[BadBatsuMaru]

After using PT for awhile, I've been thinking about this; you can obviously get a pretty good idea of what people are playing by their VP$IP. That's the whole point in having the stat, right?

To what degree has this actually been quantified, though? I'm sure SOMEONE has done extensive simulations and had a chart on it.

For example, it looks like you get about an 18.25% VP$IP by playing stricly the SSH "Tight Games" starting hands.

When I see someone playing 22-23% I figure they're playing good hands, but playing suited connectors out of position.

When I see someone playing 14-15% I figure they're not playing many drawing hands except suited aces.

When I see someone playing 8-9% I figure they're taking the Phil Hellmuth "top 10 hands" approach.

When I see someone playing about 35% I figure they're someone who knows the game but plays just about any possible draw -- almost anything suited OR connected.

Does anybody have anything more concrete than that? I assume there are programs out there where you can calculate this yourself.

[The13atman]

Hmmm, I dunno the answer but I'd like to find out if anyone has ever tried quantifying this...

[TALLBrad]

I forget were on the forum I saw it (maybe one of the threads on setting up the autoranking on PT) but you could figure the tighter players <18% vp&p playing the broadway type hands, etc.

[dealer_toe]

I think in bison's great "some notes on notes" post someone talks about vp$ip and what they hold according to it.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
After using PT for awhile, I've been thinking about this; you can obviously get a pretty good idea of what people are playing by their VP$IP. That's the whole point in having the stat, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but...

Because you have such small samples, it's hard to nail down players. We complain about 5000 being an insufficient sample size, but your stats for most players are mere hundreds.

Rather, you should use these numbers as a rough guide.

< 15 = very tight
15-25 = moderate
25-40 = a bit loose
40+ = very loose

I doubt you can do much better than that. Notice also that you don't get any position dependent information from VPIP, which makes things even harder.

For a similar thread, read this thread.

[zephed56]

the vpip stat levels out pretty quickly.

The winrate stat takes a long time to be accurate.

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
the vpip stat levels out pretty quickly.

The winrate stat takes a long time to be accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think both take time to be accurate. I've played countless "taz" icons who later become the "smiley face" as the numbers level out. I just happened to catch them on a card run for the first session or two.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
the vpip stat levels out pretty quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

It levels out quickly relative to some other stats, but it's still wildly variable. A while back I went through a 1200 hand run with a VPIP of ~12.5% and pfr < 5.

When you consider that you likely have < 200 hands for most opponents, I don't think you can infer much from their VPIP alone with much precision.

[John Paul]

The error rates go down much faster than the BB/100 stats, but you aren't going to nail somone down in a single session. I hope to write a longer post on this soon, but for a quick rule of thumb the error rate on % stats are:
Hands___Error
100_____+/- 10%
178_____+/- 7.5%
400_____+/- 5%
625_____+/- 4%
1112____+/- 3%
2500____+/- 2%
10000___+/- 1%

So, I don't think it is unreasonable to ask what sort of things someone with 30% VPIP would hold vs 10% becuase you can quickly determine if someone is closer to 30 than 10, but it takes a long time to get an error rate much better than 5% on someone.

[droolie]

The problem with VP$IP is th at the %'s are too high to be very accurate with your narrowing. It only helps if the number is very low. At higher numbers you really don't have much info. (Some loose playerp refer offsuit connectors while others will prefer unconnected suited card)

The stat that I think can really help you narrow hands is PFR%. Here is a breakdown that I worked out recently in another thread. I think it could be helpful. The number next to the percent is the total combinations out of the total possible 1326 combinations. You will notice that as the % goes up the groups become mre debatable and therefore less useful.

1%PFR Group (12)
AA, KK

2%PFR Group (24)
add QQ, JJ, AKs

3%PFR Group (40)
add AK, AQs

4%PFR Group (54)
add AJs, KQs, TT

5%PFR Group (64)
add AQ

7%PFR Group (96)
add 99, ATs, KJs, QJs, KQ

10%PFR Group (136)
add AJ, KTs, 88, 77, KJ

14%PFR Group (178)
AT, A9s, A8s, A7s, 66, 55

18%PFR Group (248)
add 44, 33, 22, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, KT, QT, Q10s, J9s