All in on bubble with AQs - dumb?

[kiemo]

Final 4 in a Stars 5 SNG.


Me - 2700
Button- 300
SB - 6500
BB - 4000 (lucky guy just nailed AA/KK back to back and didnt bother to raise at any point with either, of course he won the tourney)

Blinds 75/150
I am UTG and dealt AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop: Hero raises (600), Button folds. SB goes All-in. BB folds.

Now SB is a pretty bad player whose only only push preflop was with A6o early in the tourny (not short stacked either).

With this information I figured I had the best hand and I called. Also this had been a very cold card tourney for me, I saw 4 hands outside the big blind, with this AQ being by FAR the best starting hand I had gotten, so that might have influenced my call also.

So is this call really stupid? The more I think about it the more I believe it is. Seems like this is one of those instances where I wouldnt mind someone calling my all-in, but I dont want to be calling someone elses all-in, especially on the bubble where my opponent has me covered.

<font color="white">
SB shows AJ spades and the 4 spade board gave him my chips
</font>

[captZEEbo1]

I might just fold this. Button is too close to busting. Even though you are possibly ahead, they can be doing this with ANY pocket pair. Risk-reward just really isn't worth it. You are probably open-raising too much also.

[CWolf]

Fold. And raise less next time.

[Byrn]

Fold here. No reason to even take a chance on getting knocked out. Short stack will need to get lucky to survive.

One you are in the money, I call here.

[Benholio]

I normally hate folding premium hands just because someone is a shortstack, but this is one of those times where it just isn't worth playing anything but really big pairs. I ran some ICM calculations to see your EV in various scenarios, and you are risking a whole lot without much to gain.

Before the hand starts, the ICM values are:

Hero: .272
Button: .037
SB: .375
BB: .316

After you make your raise, here are the 3 most likely outcomes:

You steal the blinds, your EV is .280 (+.008)
You get raised and fold, EV .251 (-.021)
You get raised, call and win, EV .350 (+.078)
You get raised, call and lose, EV .000 (-.272)

As you can see, if played as a pure steal you'd have to steal the blinds about 75% of the time for it to be profitable. Once you get raised, there is no profitable way to continue in the hand. The best option might be to make a smaller raise, and lay it down to any re-raise. If you feel that you are likely to get re-raised, you need to just muck the hand and wait on the shortstack.

[ChrisV]

Fold originally rather than raising. You can't attack the big stacks here. Either SB or BB will come over the top and as you discovered, you can't call.

[alexbrew]

I was just rereading parts of Sklansky's "Tournament poker for advanced players," earlier today and he covered this exact situation.

His take is this is a very slight -ev move. Thus if you play for ev, go ahead and fold. However, if you play for the thrill of the victory, move in.

From my experience in SNGs, his advice is right as usual.