Bally's AC - $1/3 blinds last night

[PennDisc]

Villain in this post is LAG (and basically a horrible player imo) - preflop raising standards ok, but will call raises with absolute trash. His main postflop play is to open with an all-in bet on the flop. One of these hands was a $12 pot that he opened for $120 on the flop. Most other pots he did this on were about half the size of his all-in bet. He'd do this every 10-15 minutes, and had never been called/never showed his hand.

Hero is dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in CO. (11-handed table)
Villain limps UTG+2. 2 more limpers. Hero limps. Button limps. SB raises to $10 (I had seen him do this with A4o in the BB after several limpers earlier). Everyone calls.

Flop ($70 pot, 7 players)
8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Checked all around.

Turn ($70 pot, 7 players)
Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
5 checks. Hero bets $25. Folded to Villain, who check-raises to $60. (Hero has $130 remaining, Villain has this covered.)

In thinking this through, I realized that the Villain hadn't check-raised anyone all night, and had usually been moving all-in on the flop. Judging by his previous actions, it seemed clear that the Villain would move his stack in on the river. What are the chances that I'm ahead/behind here? Anyone think villain has a set? Also keep in mind that the villain was loose enough that he could have flopped 2 pair on that board, although that in no way means that he must have here.

So if I'm ahead, reraising all-in is the correct play. If he has a set or 2 pair with the Q, I'm drawing dead or slim and should fold. If he has 2 pair w/o a Q, I have 8 outs and could call to see the river, but if the board pairs non-Q, I won't know if I've been saved or if he filled.

I also felt that if I folded here I'd get another chance at one of his all-in moves when it was more clear I was ahead. On the flip side, I thought he'd buy in more if he lost and I could still get another shot at more money from him later.

Your move?

[ryanghall]

Despite the read, I'd fold this and look for a much better place to get my money in. Even against this particular person, I don't think you want to play off your stack with less than TPTK.. (notice, as well, that he didn't push this. That may, in fact, show strength)

As well, I'll fold this every time preflop. I certainly don't want to play KQo 11-handed with 3 limpers in front (and at least one virtual maniac on the table).

[PennDisc]

I had the same line of thinking about the fact that it was his 1 checkraise of the night. His slowplay here made me think he had a lot of strength, particularly because he did it against a field of 7 players. But, at the same time I don't think that he had a grasp of the significance of playing against a field versus heads up anyway. Against this type of player (someone constantly moving all in), a smallish check-raise seemed to indicate even more strength than a straight all in bet, ie. better than 1 pair. Other people at the table thought he was just screwing around with nothing or some trash like Q6. Anyone had much experience with a player like this?

[radioheadfan]

His usual move is to overbet the flop all-in. Now in a 7-way pot he's checking the flop and the check-raising small on the turn. It's likely that he has you beat. The only real hands I see him doing this with that you beat are QT and QJ. He could also be drawing with 46 or 76

It's also possible that's he's interpreting your turn bet from late position as a steal and he's trying to re-steal on the cheap.

Look deep into his soul and make a decision.

I do one of two things here:

1) Fold
2) Call his turn bet with the intention of calling his river bet regardless of the river card.