Wait til turn before pushing?

THE OUTLAW · #1 12-25-2004, 08:42 PM

1/2 100 max buy NL

I raise two EP limpers right behind to $8 w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The limpers call.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG leads for $30 which is an slight overbet to the pot. I have about $120 he has me covered. Folded to me. What is your read/play?

I didnt really think too long before I pushed. This player was decent and I figured that his most likely hands were either an AQ, a flush draw, or maybe a pure bluff. Two pair seemed very unlikely given flop and a set seemed unlikely because of the overbet. I was wrong. Q7, I lose.

Once I get over the anger of losing hands I always think the hand through. I realize that a there was no way that I could fold there expecting to be up against two pair.

After thiniking about UTGs overbet I think that the most likely hand he could have is big draw that he is willing to gamble on. There arent much for big draws out there but maybe pair+flush draw, or something like 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

My question is this. If I was very confident on having this read would it be correct to flat call the flop and see what the turn brings and what my opponent does?

soah · #2 12-25-2004, 10:15 PM

This is from Party? Full ring or short?

My observations, at the 6-max at least, is that the slight overbet is usually a strong made hand.

I have to run now; I'll get to the rest of your question later if others don't beat me to it.

mythrilfox · #3 12-25-2004, 11:23 PM

I dunno, I usually interpret _under_bets in that situation as a good made hand. A slight overbet means to me AQ or KQ, since he'd be trying to find out if his hand is good. I would have played it the same way, except ... with a gutshot + flush he has odds to call. He has odds to call with just a flush even, I believe. Since that is the case, I suppose you would be correct in just calling and pushing a non-threatening turn.

However, that is only executable with a rock-solid read, which is unlikely. Because of this, I'd have pushed the flop like you did. A smooth-call looks scarier to AQ than does a push.