Asteroid flies under satellites. Big asteroid 1/60 odds to hit 2029

[wacki]

This asteroid, if it hit the earth at a 90 degree angle, would be about twice as powerfull as Hiroshima.

Astronomers spotted an asteroid this week AFTER it had flown past Earth on a course that took it so close to the planet it was below the orbits of some satellites.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronom...se_041222.html

This one will explode with a force of 1,900 Megatons of TNT.
Odds of it hitting in April 13, 2029? 1/60. Have a nice day!

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html

Not to alarm people further, but April 13, 2029 is also Friday the 13th! We're doomed!!!!

I'll be on my roof with a 6 pack of beer.

[wacki]

NASA plot of the 1,900 megaton beast.

[CCx]

Hmmmm, it said 1-in-300 chance in this CNN article from yesterday, but I guess they flubbed that one..

uh oh we're so screwed

if i happen to live that long, i'll be ready to go out with a bang [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[wacki]

Ya, CNN got it wrong. It was 1/233, but then NASA took more precise measurements. It then went down to 1/60. They still have more measurements to take so it could go either way.

[Michael Davis]

1/60 odds on that is pretty insane, probably worth taking measures to blow it up or something. I really know nothing about this stuff but a 1/60 shot is very scary if accurate.

-Michael

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
1/60 odds on that is pretty insane, probably worth taking measures to blow it up or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understatement of the year. We actually can blow up an asteroid. Right now the technology to do so is still 30 years away. I hope NASA, and Congress, gets their butts in gear.

[Duke]

[ QUOTE ]
We actually can blow up an asteroid. Right now the technology to do so is still 30 years away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this mean that we can't?

Also, though they aren't sure if it'll hit or not, they should have an idea where it would hit if it did. If NASA isn't going nuts about it it's probably going to hit Africa or something.

EDIT: I would assume that the velocity isn't uncertain, only the trajectory.

~D

[wacki]

When I say "we can", I meant it is theoretically possible. We can't stop an earthquake, but we can stop an asteroid.

As for NASA panicking, I highly doubt you will ever see it. When scientists make public statements it is always very conserved. You will see it get a bit more intense than this, but not by much. The impact is 25 years away, they aren't going to immediately go into panic. You will see it rise on the Torino scale, but that is it.

As for the asteroid hitting Africa, do you have any idea how much a power is in one megaton? At 1,900 megatons, it's not going to matter where it hits.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Regarding blowing it up:

When, where, how far away?

The problem is, when you blow it up too close to the Earth, there's no reduction in total mass, but you increase the number of projectiles flying at us at unpredictable vectors.

In other words, we'd better be pretty damn sure that big 1,900 megaton projectile is going to hit us before we scatter it into a bunch of random 100 megaton projectiles flying in our general direction.

Either that, or we need to be able to blow it up on its outbound path.

[wacki]

I have an article somewhere about how NASA plans on doing this. They don't actually blow up the asteroid, they simply alter it's course. Something as harmless as paint might be able to do that.


I have some really good articles on this stuff, I will try to find them. Until then, here are two that are ok.

http://unisci.com/stories/20022/0408022.htm

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...7_comet28.html