Pocket Tens vs UTG

[Buckshot]

UTG up to this point has paid off every hand we've been in together but I've seen him be very unpredictable in other hands.

UTG raised and I three bet with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on his immediate left. It's folded back to UTG and he capped. I've seen him do this once before with AK suited. I called.

FLOP: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG bet.

Would you call this player down no matter what came on the turn and river? If it came running diamonds would you raise the river?

~stephen

[Nightwish]

This is a tough situation. When you say he has paid off, do you mean he's normally loose passive against you?

The question is whether this guy would cap with anything that you beat, like AQ or 99. Based on how I'm interpreting your description of him, it doesn't sound like it.

I don't like calling down here. However, it sounds like he can be tricky against other players. If you're really unsure, raise the flop.

[stoxtrader]

I think the flop play is raise or fold. but let's examine a call-down:

there is 10.5 SB in the pot when it comes to you on the flop and it will cost you 5 SB (2.5 BB) to see a showdown if one bet goes in on ever street, and the pot will be 20.5 SB, so are you good here more than 25% of the time? it seems very close. if he has tight/solid raising standards from UTG its probably a muck. If he is LAGish, the best play is probably to call down. IF he is TAG, a flop raise (probably followed by a turn bet) could fold specifically QQ or JJ, if he 3 bets you have to decide if you peel one to try for a set or fold on the spot...

does he have AA/QQ/JJ or any Kx here 75%+? probably....

[Buckshot]

[ QUOTE ]
When you say he has paid off, do you mean he's normally loose passive against you?

[/ QUOTE ]

To make it simple, let's say it's HU on the flop after I raised AK. The flop is K58. He would bet into me, I'd raise and he'd call me to the river. Checking the HH he would have 8T.

So, yes, I believe he would cap with any pair, any Ace and most Kings.

~stephen

[sfer]

I must be missing something because you suggested he's probably not folding and you're behind any reasonable capping hand.

[mmcd]

If you plan on taking this one to showdown, calling the flop and raising the turn would be better than raising the flop or calling down.

[chesspain]

This seems like an easy fold to me.

[W. Deranged]

I think you should just fold here. Even if he is a very tricky player, and you are ahead on the flop, he will likely have something in the neighborhood of 5 outs on average (the specific examples of 77 or 99 would be the exceptions; AQ, AJ, QJ, strange possibilities like 89 suited, etc...). Meaning your equity is only in the neighborhood of 80% even when you're ahead. Using the earlier numbers that would mean you would actually have to be ahead probably more like 30% to make this worth going on. Any other overcards on the turn or river make this even less likely to be a winner, and an A makes your hand as good as dead.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
If you plan on taking this one to showdown, calling the flop and raising the turn would be better than raising the flop or calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

[Buckshot]

It's funny that I got different responses on the best way to proceed. It goes to show how tough a decision it can be.

In the actual hand my decision was pretty simple. I raised the flop and was prepared to fold to more pressure, but the player conveniently got disconnected.

Results:
FLOP: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
TURN: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
RIVER: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
ME: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

~stephen