where do you draw the line between a downswing, and being a bad player

splashpot · #1 12-23-2004, 05:40 AM

I'm on the biggest downswing of my poker career. I've only played about 20,000 hands, so I know people are going to ramble on at me about small sample sizes and so forth. But how can you tell if you are just hitting a bad swing of cards, or if you are actually a losing player?

Also, I'm somewhat confident that I am a winning player overall, but how can I tell if my downswing is due to bad cards or due to improper play and concentration?

mordecaibrown · #2 12-23-2004, 06:01 AM

I play mostly live but I see beginning players getting discouraged after only a few months of playing.
Yes 20k is too small of a sample to grade.

You are on the right track by posting. Get some books, plug some leaks, play some hands.
This game isn't a sprint and most players that come out sprinting often run out of motivation. M.

bernie · #3 12-23-2004, 06:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But how can you tell if you are just hitting a bad swing of cards, or if you are actually a losing player?

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but how can I tell if my downswing is due to bad cards or due to improper play and concentration?

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You study your hands. How you played during a hand. Street by street. Regardless of whether you're dragging pots or not.

Get involved in the forum. Test your thinking against other responders to hand posts. They'll usually explain it pretty well.

On top of that, study and read all you can. Even if some books seem redundant, read 'em anyways.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm somewhat confident that I am a winning player overall,

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny, with your 2 lines i quoted above, what are you basing this line on? Not saying you're not a winning player, but if you don't know how to tell the difference between a bad run or bad play...

Good luck. You're in the right place if you want to get better.

b

splashpot · #4 12-23-2004, 06:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm somewhat confident that I am a winning player overall,

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny, with your 2 lines i quoted above, what are you basing this line on? Not saying you're not a winning player, but if you don't know how to tell the difference between a bad run or bad play...

Good luck. You're in the right place if you want to get better.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm basing it on the fact that over 20,000 hands, I'm winning 5BB/100. I know, I know, 20,000 hands is nothing, but it's hard to ignore. I think a bad player would have to have an extremely lucky run of 20,000 hands to win that much.

As for my post, I'm referring to a recent downswing. Not a huge downswing, just the biggest one I have ever suffered. Now, downswings can happen for many different reasons.
1) You happen to be playing against players who are better than you.
2) Unlucky run of cards
3) Bad play, poor decisions, lack of concentration.

I'm not trying to complain about it, I am just very curious to how other players distinguish between each of the above reasons. Not specifically for my downswing, but for downswings in general. Thanks.

bernie · #5 12-23-2004, 06:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm basing it on the fact that over 20,000 hands, I'm winning 5BB/100. I know, I know, 20,000 hands is nothing, but it's hard to ignore. I think a bad player would have to have an extremely lucky run of 20,000 hands to win that much.

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20K hands is about 1/3 a year of live play. My concern is just putting the results ahead of the stuff I mention below.

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I am just very curious to how other players distinguish between each of the above reasons. Not specifically for my downswing, but for downswings in general.

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Experience. Flat out.

Btw...This also goes for the upswings too. Just becauser you're losing, doesn't mean you're playing bad as just because you're winning doesn't mean you're playing well.

There will come a point where you can see how you played a hand, or how an opponent played a hand where you'd have played it differently (usually better) that you won't need a 'sample size' of hands to know you're a winning player or if you're on a beatable table for your level of play. You also have to be very honest with yourself about your play to really be able to do this. Brutally honest. Which doesn't mean you won't like the results of your own honesty. It can actually be very enlightening on many levels.

It's all in recognizing good plays from bad plays and who is lacking in using many concepts(usually basic concepts). Hand protection is a big one that's easy to see. Preflop play is real easy.

The root your looking for seems to be in recognizing good/bad play. For both you and your opponents. That seems to be what you're asking.

If so, there's your starting point.

Getting active in the strategy part of the forum is the path.

b

Al Schoonmaker · #6 12-23-2004, 09:06 AM

You haven't provided enough information for us to answer intelligently.

How long has the downswing lasted?
How much have you lost during it?
How much were you winning before it began?
How how long were you winning?

There are probably other questions to anwwer before we can make reasonable comments.

Regards,

Al

splashpot · #7 12-23-2004, 10:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You haven't provided enough information for us to answer intelligently.

How long has the downswing lasted?
How much have you lost during it?
How much were you winning before it began?
How how long were you winning?

There are probably other questions to anwwer before we can make reasonable comments.

Regards,

Al

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the thing is, it is not a huge downswing, nothing to be too worried about at least in my opinion. I don't think I made it clear that I'm not just talking about my specific case. It's more of a generalized question. Maybe this should have gone in the poker theory forum. I've been reading and studying enough to feel confident that I will be fine. It's just that my downswing got me thinking(a good thing).

Maybe this would be better put in the form of a new hypothetical question. If my downswing were to continue indefinately, how long would I let it last before I started worrying?

cbfair · #8 12-23-2004, 04:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You haven't provided enough information for us to answer intelligently.

How long has the downswing lasted?
How much have you lost during it?
How much were you winning before it began?
How how long were you winning?

There are probably other questions to anwwer before we can make reasonable comments.

Regards,

Al

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the thing is, it is not a huge downswing, nothing to be too worried about at least in my opinion. I don't think I made it clear that I'm not just talking about my specific case. It's more of a generalized question. Maybe this should have gone in the poker theory forum. I've been reading and studying enough to feel confident that I will be fine. It's just that my downswing got me thinking(a good thing).

Maybe this would be better put in the form of a new hypothetical question. If my downswing were to continue indefinately, how long would I let it last before I started worrying?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd suggest you read bernie's response to your question. He states that the best way to tell if you are a winning player is to study play (your's and other's) and see if there are things you would do differently or better. Also spend time in the various strategy forums here, read and evaluate people's posted hands and the responses to them. Contribute to discussions and pay attention to people's responses. I think that is the answer to your new hypothetical question.

In answer to your original, specific question I'll also suggest that you should review bernie's post. In it he suggests brutal honesty with yourself regarding your play and does an escellent job of describing how that is not always a painful process. Honest self reflection can be a very liberating experience.

Please don't take this as a personal attack, you came here for help and I'm going to suggest that you've avoided hearing what you don't want to hear. Your responses have been evasive as if you are not actually open to the idea that you may be a losing player. Only you will know for sure and only you can do anything about it but the first step is to level with yourself.

splashpot · #9 12-24-2004, 12:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't take this as a personal attack, you came here for help and I'm going to suggest that you've avoided hearing what you don't want to hear. Your responses have been evasive as if you are not actually open to the idea that you may be a losing player. Only you will know for sure and only you can do anything about it but the first step is to level with yourself.

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Clearly no one wants to admit they are a losing player. And so far I'm not. So far, I'm winning above what the average winner wins, according to what I've read on these forums. Whether or not I am after 100k, 200k, or one million hands, is impossible to know for sure until I get there.

I guess it's kinda like when a little kid experiences the death of his grandmother and realizes that he too will someday die. My current downswing got me thinking, and that's why I made the original post.

deacsoft · #10 12-24-2004, 01:09 AM

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Clearly no one wants to admit they are a losing player.

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I'll do it. I'm a losing player. Have I made money in the last year? Yes. I made plenty. Am I a winning player right now? No. I'm in a downswing so big it can't be variance. I'll be playing for the next month just to get the BBs back. I lost something in the past month that has me doing everything the bernie has suggested in this thread. Right now I'm a losing player and it truely sucks, but I can already see the light at the end of the tunnel.