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#1
12-21-2004, 09:43 PM
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fold or all-in?
$50 SNG on UB...down to four...blinds at 75/150...I'm comfortably in 2nd in the BB with AKs...the leader (he's got about 50% more chips than me, and playing a solid game), is UTG and leads out with a pot-sized bet...if I fold, I'm 90% sure I'd at least make the money...
my read is he only makes that bet with one hand that's worse than mine - AQ. Okay, MAYBE AJs. If not one of those hands (or AK) I'm pretty sure he's got a decent PP....99, TT or JJ...anything bigger he'd probably limp and hope to trap. push or fold? 
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#2
12-21-2004, 10:17 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
If you're comfortably in 2nd and know that he's only playing massive hands against you why are you taking the risk of pushing and busting out here? Given that you do have some decent outs assuming he's not playing AA or KK vs. you; but I'd fold here and wait until you're not going against someone that has the better hand or a coinflip hand when on the bubble.
Maybe I'm too weak here though
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#3
12-21-2004, 10:31 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
I'd raise.
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#4
12-21-2004, 10:32 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
[ QUOTE ]
$50 SNG on UB...down to four...blinds at 75/150...I'm comfortably in 2nd in the BB with AKs...the leader (he's got about 50% more chips than me, and playing a solid game), is UTG and leads out with a pot-sized bet...if I fold, I'm 90% sure I'd at least make the money... my read is he only makes that bet with one hand that's worse than mine - AQ. Okay, MAYBE AJs. If not one of those hands (or AK) I'm pretty sure he's got a decent PP....99, TT or JJ...anything bigger he'd probably limp and hope to trap. push or fold? [/ QUOTE ] Um...how about option #3 - Call, see a flop, and go from there. AK doesn't always have to be a push/fold hand, especially in the above-described situation. If you flop an Ace or King, go to war, and somehow end up with the worst hand, oh well. That's a lot less risky a scenario then coming over the top given the proposed range of hands for UTG (and what sounds like not many chips in the pot to take down uncontested). Also, not sure what the chip stacks are (might help the analysis). And a "pot-sized bet" at 75/150? Are there antes on UB or something, cause otherwise that's less than a mini-raise. And, is this a top-3 payout structure?
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#5
12-21-2004, 10:35 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
[ QUOTE ]
my read is he only makes that bet with one hand that's worse than mine - AQ. Okay, MAYBE AJs. [/ QUOTE ] You don't think his raising standards lower in a 4 handed game? Either way, I like to push (or at least raise) and play for 1st.
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#6
12-21-2004, 10:36 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
Seeing as you are 90% to make the money push pf is out of the question.
You have position on him, call his pf bet. It will not cripple you as I understand it. If an A or K comes your decision is easy. If nothing comes your decision is easy. Don't push, don't fold, call and play with position.
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#8
12-21-2004, 10:43 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Don't push, don't fold, call and play with position. [/ QUOTE ] He's in the BB, so he does not have position. [/ QUOTE ] I thought the raiser is UTG?
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#9
12-21-2004, 10:45 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Don't push, don't fold, call and play with position. [/ QUOTE ] He's in the BB, so he does not have position. [/ QUOTE ] I should actually read every word. (leads out... hmmm) You're right, I assumed UTG=1st pos. I still think a call is in order if the villian is aggressive and you can get a dominating position.
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