Aces miss a bet?

[MRBAA]

At the club, 4-8. I have aces in the SB. Young gun who is trying to play well but who doesn't yet have much feel raises in MP, loose fish cold calls, I three bet, young gun caps. 3 to the flop for 13sb.

Flop comes 6892 with two hearts. I have the Ace of hearts. I bet, young gun raises, loose fish calls, I 3-bet, young gun caps and loose fish folds.

Turn a heart blank. I bet, young gun calls.

River a non-heart King. I check, fearing opponent has just rivered a set. He checks behind and my hand is good.

Young gun didn't show his hand, but when he capped both preflop and on the flop (and he's observant enough and has played with me enough to know I am not going to three bet either street without a big holding), I put him on KK or QQ. Therefore, on the river I felt it was about 50/50 he'd have a set, in which case I'd have to call a raise. So 1/2 the time I lose 2 bets and 1/2 the time I win one bet (assuming he'll always call in a pot this big).

In thinking about the hand afterwards, though, I think that the low board could have meant he'd give this much action on the flop with TT and JJ, too. Which changes the equation to 3 times I win 1BB and 1 time I lose 2BB, making the bet profitable. Do others agree?

[djoyce003]

i'd say you missed a bet. He is likely to have AK, or 10's through Kings. So about 1 out of 5 hands has you beat. And he's calling any bet.

[private joker]

I don't think he'd cap that flop with AK. But his turn call does show some weakness, so I'd bet the river and call a raise anyway.

[ghostface]

Theres lots of hands that will cap PF, AKs, AK, AQs, AQ, AA-JJ. I think you have to bet there and probably call a raise too since he is definitely going to pop you if he spiked TPTK.

[ErrantNight]

"young gun who is trying to play well but doesn't yet (quite) have much feel..."

me, anyone?

well, except that I haven't played live in two months...

Anyway, where can I find this "four cards on the flop" game?

did you mean: 689 with two hearts?

or 62 and 8/9 with two hearts?

Take this for what it's worth... but he either is waiting to pop you on the river, or he has a pair with no heart. But if he doesn't have a heart (and he's not just playing possum), why not raise you to charge you for your heart draw (if he fears it)? I think your leading into him after the cap has scared him, and he doesn't have a heart. Which means, to me, the non heart K river means that if he has KK it doesn't have a heart, which leaves ONE hand you don't beat on the river.

I think it's close, against an unknown I say easy river value bet. I don't think you're up against KK here very often for the reasons I stated above, if for nothing else than compared to other holdings he'd cap preflop and flop with the river K makes it more unlikely than QQ, JJ, maybe TT or the other AA. I don't think you get bluff-raised very often, but with this particular player if he's potentially tricky it makes it close, entering into your payoff on the river dilemma.

I'm inclined to believe he caps the flop with any pockets TT+, that he doesn't bluff raise you very often... and that he calls with a lot that you beat here, so I bet... tough only since I feel you pretty clearly have to pay off a raise.

I think his turn check makes a river bet pretty safe.

[bdk3clash]

Why are you including the damn results?

Anyway, I would bet this river and call a raise because he could have some weighted combination of KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AKs here.

You didn't miss a bet, you missed some fraction thereof.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't miss a bet, you missed some fraction thereof.


[/ QUOTE ]

he missed a bet, the expectation of which is some fraction of a BB.

[bdk3clash]

Yeah.

NEWS FLASH: JR IS RIGHT; SUN RISES.

[MRBAA]

He did not have AKs, since I had the ace of the flush suit. His aggression both pre flop and on the flop said "overpair". I initially thought QQ or KK (or the other two Aces, of course), so betting the river would be negative EV. However, I later realized that given the low cards on the flop, he could also have played TT or JJ this way, making river bet more favorable.

[Randy Burgess]

I think there are too many other possibilities here to be overly scared of a set of Kings on the river.

Preflop, he might have felt you had AQs or AK or some such; or that you were raising with a medium or even God forbid a small pair to knock out the BB. Granted a knockout bet wouldn't make sense from you given that a player in between has already called his initial raise, but he may still suspect you of a play of this sort if he perceives you as very aggressive. And he might have felt that you too were trying to put the pressure on, even if you held only overcards. The cheap street is where this sort of gamesmanship is most likely to take place, especially from a "young gun" as you describe him.

The fact he only called you on the turn also strongly indicates he doesn't have the Kings; don't you think he'd have raised you again with Kings here, after having capped the flop with them? He'd at least have toyed with the thought. With Tens through Queens he's much more likely to slow down, as he has more overpairs to worry about.

But all of this is hindsight from someone who no longer plays limit poker very well ... (although I was reading your starting hands very accurately--I correctly put you on AT one time, TT another, and big suited Broadway cards still another).