Ed Miller Hand Quiz

[Wheezl]

From SSHE in the hand quiz section:

Q: "Your game is loose and aggressive with many players who habitually misplay their hands after the flop. Your opponents are raising and calling before the flop with a wide range of hands. You are on the button with Ac7c. The player udner the gun raises, and four people cold-call. What should you do?"

A: "Call. You could be dominated here as well, but it is not nearly so devastating as it was in Hand No. 1. Your hand is suited, so you do not depend as heavily on winning with top pair. Also, there are four callers, many of whom are likely to have weak hands. These loose calls provide dead money, and they practically assure that you will get action after the flop if you do flop a flush draw. You have a solid hand, position, and many weak opponents who lose money after the flop. This hand should show a modest profit."

My initial answer was "raise". I rationalized that because you have position, a hand that can flop a big draw in a good situation where you have much pot equity, very loose/bad players committing more "dead money", and a good chance that if you three-bet and are only called by the initial raiser you have a better than normal chance of taking off a free card when the entire table checks to you on the flop if you happen to flop something like a backdoor flush and backdoor straight draw with one overcard. I think I now understand why my answer is wrong, and that is because the chance that you are dominated by the UTG raiser coupled with the threat of him capping it with a hand that has you dominated outweighs the positive factors I listed. Am I way off here? The intro to the quizzes states very clearly that all situations presented have clear cut answers. I would like to understand this situation more fully. Thanks for any responses.

[Skeesix]

[ QUOTE ]
I rationalized that because you have position, a hand that can flop a big draw in a good situation where you have much pot equity, very loose/bad players committing more "dead money", and a good chance that if you three-bet and are only called by the initial raiser you have a better than normal chance of taking off a free card when the entire table checks to you on the flop if you happen to flop something like a backdoor flush and backdoor straight draw with one overcard. I think I now understand why my answer is wrong, and that is because the chance that you are dominated by the UTG raiser coupled with the threat of him capping it with a hand that has you dominated outweighs the positive factors I listed. Am I way off here? The intro to the quizzes states very clearly that all situations presented have clear cut answers. I would like to understand this situation more fully. Thanks for any responses.

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Well I think this is a pretty bad assumption to have at a loose and aggressive small stakes game.

[Wheezl]

Yeah I thought about that. Wondering if it was "Loose Passive" in the question, would the answer change? And maybe Ive never really played in an aggressive game, but in the majority of the live 4-8 games I have played in, If someone three bets preflop and is just called by everyone at the table, the table tends to check to that person a very high percentage of the time. This includes not only people who miss the flop but also people who hit it (sets/two pairs).

[illguitar]

I read that question and immediately thought, call. I understand the raise for value, but what if UTG reraises? Then you are probably looking at a heads up cap, not a good situation. All though, in all honesty, even though I would usually call, depending on how the table has played from a first-hand vantage point, and how my table image is, I may reraise from time to time.

[Wheezl]

Well that book is geared toward loose small stakes games, and in the small stakes games I have played in, you will find maybe 1 player in 50 who will release a hand because it is two bets to them after cold calling an initial raise. I think in that type of situation you can be virtually certain the other players will cold call the two bet cap from UTG. I think this is much more likely to become a capped pot with all the others coming along for the ride than just heads up with UTG. That being said, if you could CHOOSE to have all the remaining players fold I suspect you would be better off playing it heads up with UTG even if he has you dominated (which he probably would). It seems like all the dead money left from people leaving their 2 bets in preflop would compensate for the domination factor. Their combined chances of hitting a winner is probably greater than what you are going to lose by calling down UTG the rest of the way in such a big pot. I have no mathematical basis for this statement, so I could be very wrong.

But back to the original question. My confusion was that in the book they stress that it is RARELY correct to cold call preflop. This is apparantly one of those rare situations, and I am still unclear as to why it is CLEARLY better to call than raise in this situation. I am sure that this is more likely a lack of understanding on my part than anything else.

[Dave H.]

You still have the very probable threat of domination. If you miss your flop, you are likely dead. You already have a lot of dead money in the pot. No need to be greedy here.

That's how I see it.

[Victor]

axs relies heavily on implied odds. raising here kills your implied odds.

[Brann]

This just happened to me not an hour ago.

I had Ac/7c on the button and just called. Flop came all red, KQ9. It's possible a pair of aces would've won it but I didn't stick around to find out and everyone folded/mucked before a showdown. I was out 2BBs but still think just calling was correct. Axs too often turns into a race and I just don't see the value, mathematically, of rasing it at a table full of LAGs.

I could very well be wrong but it's what I'm comfortable with.

[Khern]

I'm no expert, but...

I think you call or raise depending on whether you believe you have an equity edge over the range of hands the opponents are likely playing. I'm guessing that in this situation, you believe that you are a little behind and must likely make up ground after the flop.

I've just discovered pokerstove, and I hope I'm not misusing it, but I just stuck in a few hands, and against the loosest of players where UTG will raise any broadway cards and pairs to 77, and the four callers will play any 2 to a raise, you have about 22% equity in the pot and should should probably raise for value. Under more realistic settings where UTG raises premium hands, and Callers, have broadway cards, any pair, any suited connector, and any suited A, you are about 19%. Still taking more than your 1/6 share. So, yeah, I don't know why you shouldn't raise. It may depend on just how bad your opponents are. Or I may be looking at this the wrong way entirly. (which is really why I'm posting, so that if I am entirely off, someone can tell me.)

-John

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
a good situation where you have much pot equity,

[/ QUOTE ]

Your pot equity is mostly dependant on UTGs range of hands. He he only raises AA KK QQ you are totally screwed; If he raises AA KK QQ JJ AK AQ AJ then you wont be getting an overlay.

The other players, coming in with bad hands, does help your pot equity but UTG is by far the most important factor here.

Play about with www.pokerstove.com to see what i mean.