Value bet with middle pair?

billyjex · #1 12-13-2004, 05:20 AM

No reads on CO. BB is weak-tight.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (8.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Is this a value bet? Or take the free showdown?

Vaftrudner · #2 12-13-2004, 05:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Is this a value bet? Or take the free showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]
value. /v

DeezNutz3 · #3 12-13-2004, 05:41 AM

Yes, easy value bet in my opinion. You're hand improved and you want to check this, why?

billyjex · #4 12-13-2004, 05:44 AM

Because I'm a pansy.

But I'm working on it.

Bullajami · #5 12-13-2004, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, easy value bet in my opinion. You're hand improved and you want to check this, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am somewhat of a newbie, and I don't understand this sentence. How does the Q improve Hero's hand, if it does the same for his opponent? It could actually be REALLY helping his opponent by giving him trips.

Then, the statement that "you want to check this" seems to contradict the initial statement that a value bet is in order.

Edu-ma-cate me please.

Thanks,

BottlesOf · #6 12-13-2004, 03:23 PM

There are only 4 q's in the deck. If 2 are on the board instead of 1, it's even less likely that one is inhis hand. Further, he checked the second Q indicating he doesn't like it/is scared of your trips.

Now, he could be planning a checkraise, but if he has a Q, he's probably going to realize that there's only one other Q and you probably don't have it AND if you do, you don't have him kicked, therefore, he'll bet, so you don't check it through. So, a c/r isn't too too likely, bet here.

colgin · #7 12-13-2004, 03:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There are only 4 q's in the deck. If 2 are on the board instead of 1, it's even less likely that one is inhis hand. Further, he checked the second Q indicating he doesn't like it/is scared of your trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is clearly correct. However, as you know, in determining whether it is correct to value bet on the river when acting last we need to evaluate not how likely our hand is to be good but how likely it is to be good when we get called. On the typical Party table though, where players will call with terrible hands or no hands at all, value betting whenever you figure to have the best hand is either correct or very close to being correct. When in doubt, and often there is no doubt, you should still tend to value debt and not worry about "will a worse hand call me" because, in general, they will call you.

Now my question to you and others with regard to this hand is the following. We were not given a read on the opponent in this hand. But suppose all we knew is that he is in most respects a typical, pretty bad Party player, but that while he will call with any kind of made hand, including middle or bottom pair, he will not call with a busted straight or flush draw, which many Party players will do. With that read, do you think the value bet is as clear?

Edit: Of course, you may have assumed that you won't get a call from a busted draw in your original analysis. I am just curious about that though. Thanks.

sfer · #8 12-14-2004, 01:22 AM

Yes. For me, an unknown is assumed to be a typical Party player.

EDIT: It's also important to note that even bad players are more likely to call with weaker hands when the top card pairs because you are less likely to have trips.

Bullajami · #9 12-13-2004, 06:38 PM

OK, what if he bet out on the river, instead of checking? How would you play that?

BottlesOf · #10 12-13-2004, 06:40 PM

I'd call and expect to lose. (Note that doesn't make calling incorrect)