Big 15/30 pot, should I raise this river?

DeezNutz3 · #1 12-12-2004, 07:46 PM

This is my first time posting a hand and I found this particular hand to be interesting. It's a full table of 15/30 on Party and I have no reads on the players(my laptop does not have the same player database my desktop does) and I just sat 10 minutes before this hand came up.
Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (17.66 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (11.33 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (27.33 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 bets, CO folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 29.33 BB
I want to know if I should bet the flop with that many players in and a big pot.
But, my question is on the river. On the turn I considered he had 89s, 66, TT or some random 2 pair but then on the river when he leads into me knowing very well that I could have AK I am stuck. I wanted to raise, but I felt like I wouldn't get 3 bet by much that I beat. What are your thoughts on the flop and river play?

amirpc · #2 12-12-2004, 07:50 PM

I think you bet the flop because you've got 6 outs for your overs, and 4 outs for your gutshot plus if you turn a club you also have a pretty solid draw. You do open yourself up to a checkraise, but thats not a bad thing necessarily because especially in a big pot not many people are gonna be folding the flop - even for two bets.

I think you gotta raise the river because I can't really see him limping JJ, TT or QQ. The only thing he COULD have limped is 66 and flopped a set...but the river makes that pretty slim. I think you're probably up a gainst a JT or QJ type hand here who thinks you have an overpair. I raise and call a 3-bet.

Nice hand - sweet table.

sthief09 · #3 12-12-2004, 07:55 PM

think about the hands that beat you:
QQ
JJ
TT
66
Q6
J6
T6

I think it's fair to say he probably doens't have Q6, J6, or T6. also, he's unlikely to have limped UTG with QQ or JJ, and probably not TT either. it's possible but not probable. 66 is an obvious possibility but that would give him quads.

now let's think about the hands that he could have that don't beat you:
QJ
QT
JT
98
K9
AK (chop)

I think it's very likely that he'd go off with QJ like this. holding top two pair, he's almost assured that you don't have QQ or JJ. from watching and reading about that game, I wouldn't be surprised if he had QT or JT either. 98 and K9 are obvious hands he could have, and we can probably discount AK.

I'm not going to do a formal Bayesian analysis because it should be pretty clear that you've got the best hand an overwhelming amount of the time. if you get 3-bet, I'd just call, but I think most of the time you're against a straight, and he'll just call since the board paired.

DeezNutz3 · #4 12-12-2004, 07:55 PM

I'm not so sure QJ or JT would lead into me on the river with the counterfit card showing up.

billuhbong · #5 12-12-2004, 07:55 PM

considering he just limped, i cant put him on a set of 10s jacks or queens, calling 89s is pretty weak especially for 3bets so im kinda ruling that out too. i honestly dont know how he coulda hit a boat, maybe he had a6clubs lol or just decided to limp ak, otherwise i have no frikkin clue. What'd he end up having??

Harv72b · #6 12-12-2004, 07:56 PM

What hands would he have limped with preflop that beat you now?

I'd raise the river, putting UTG+2 on QJ for top 2 pair.

DeezNutz3 · #7 12-12-2004, 07:58 PM

I will post results later tonight.

sthief09 · #8 12-12-2004, 08:00 PM

I don't think half the players would realize AA beats them

DeezNutz3 · #9 12-12-2004, 08:00 PM

I considered this but would QJ really lead into me on the river after all that turn action?

DeezNutz3 · #10 12-12-2004, 08:01 PM

This is very possible.