misclicked and bet $245 with AQs; call limp-reraise allin?

creedofhubris · #1 12-09-2004, 11:42 PM

Math problem, sadly not hypothetical.

I'm sitting in my usual $2/$5 NL game with $900 in front of me. Multitabling. I get caught up in another hand and flip back to note that I have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in MP, three limpers behind me, and my time bank is about to expire. I quickly type my bet, only instead of my usual $25, I bet $245. Folded to UTG, who goes all-in for $500. UTG is supertight.

Assume he only does this with AA, KK. Call or fold? Ev of each?

How about if we add AKs, QQ to the mix.

evanski · #2 12-10-2004, 12:16 AM

To simplify this a little well ignore the limpers money and make your bet 250, giving you exactly 3 to 1 on a call.

Assuming he only has aa or kk:

3 ways of having AA, 6 of kk

1/3 of the time he has AA, and you are 12.6% to win

2/3 of the time he has KK, of that, half the time he has the k of hearts, and you are 31.5%

the other half he does not have the k of hearts, and you are 32.2 % to win.

Odds of winning = 1/3 (32.2 + 31.5 + 12.6) = 25.43333
making this a call, with a positive EV of a whopping 4.33.

If you consider him having AA,KK,AKs,QQ

3 ways AA, 3 ways KK w/ heart, 3 ways KK no heart, 6 ways QQ, 3 ways AKs

1/6 he has AA and you are 12.6

1/6 KK w/ heart and you are 31.5

1/6 KK no heart and you are 32.2

1/3 QQ and you are 34.4

1/6 AKs and you are 28.6

Odds of winning = 28.95, making it a call with an EV of 39.5.

-Evan

Robk · #3 12-10-2004, 12:40 AM

there's no excuse not to know how to solve this problem for yourself. no offense, but it's easy and important.

after saying that i hope i don't [censored] it up. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

the first point is that you holding the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] blocks 3 of the 6 possible combinations of AA. that means he's a 6:3 or 2:1 favorite to have KK.

against AA your pot equity is 12.5%.
against KK your pot equity is 32%.

your pot odds are (2+5+5+5+245+500):255, or 762:255, or 3:1. to profit, you need to win 1/4 times.

to find your winning percentage against his range of hands, take the weighted average of your equity against his possible holdings. (alternately you could use the program pokerstove to arrive at this figure)

P(win) = 1/3*(.125) + 2/3*(.32) = .255.

so a call is the correct play (barely).

With you holding the AQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], there are 3 available combos of AKs, and 3 combos of QQ.

your pot equity against AKs is .29
your pot equity against QQ is .34.

so your against the second range of hands your winning percentage is

3/15*(.125) + 6/15*(.32) + 3/15*(.29) + 3/15*(.34) = .278

(the more hands you add, the nicer pokerstove becomes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Robk · #4 12-10-2004, 12:43 AM

you get extra points for finishing first. but lose points for not discounting the chances he has QQ. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] nice post.

fourgapper · #5 12-10-2004, 01:55 AM

Was this at Pokerroom? If so, I reraised you all-in UTG with KK; guess I need to shed the supertight image.

4gapper

evanski · #6 12-10-2004, 02:05 AM

wow thats embarassing. the math major is going back into his cave to hide.

Robk · #7 12-10-2004, 02:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
the math major is going back into his cave to hide.

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds like a summary of my life so far

creedofhubris · #8 12-10-2004, 05:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
there's no excuse not to know how to solve this problem for yourself. no offense, but it's easy and important.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I know how to do it, I'm just a lazy bastard.

I was more looking to see if anyone disagreed with my basic assumptions (he's really only going to do this with aces and kings...).

In real life, I folded, figuring that the call was close (and failing to heed that classic piece of advice -- if it's close between calling and folding, you should call, because it's more fun.)

creedofhubris · #9 12-10-2004, 05:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Was this at Pokerroom? If so, I reraised you all-in UTG with KK; guess I need to shed the supertight image.

4gapper

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the only time I'd seen you raise preflop you showed down kings or aces. And I'd seen you limp in with the aces UTG before.

Nice play. Serves me right for 4-tabling.