TPGK+ OESD against LAG maniac

[kongo_totte]

I sat down at NL25 Party this afternoon. What first caught my attention was that there was a guy who sat two seats to my right with about $230 (9X max buy-in). I check his stats on PT, and it turned out I had a 100 hand history on the guy. His stats were the almost unbelievable VP$P 80% and PFR 36%. After a couple of orbits he has lost almost 2 buy ins playing the way his stats showed, that is raising w/ anything (standard raise $3) and limping with less than anything. One hand he called down a guy on every street (totally $30) w/ middle pair no kicker. Otherwise, he is not overly aggressive post flop. If he was the preflop raiser, he'll take one stab at it and fold if played back at, if he missed the flop completely that is. To the hand:

I'm ($45) dealt K Qo in MP2. One limper to maniac who makes it $3 to go. I re-raise $6 to isolate. Only maniac calls.

Flop: K J T

Villain checks and I bet $10. Villain thinks and thinks and pushes.

What to do? I haven't seen him overbetting the pot uptil that point. Although I beleive he could make this move with a variaty of hands that I beat.

[Tilt]

I assume rainbow flop?

I dont like your reraise with KQo preflop. You can pick better hands to challenge him with.

Based on reads villain likely has AK, two pair, or a straight at this point. Fold.

[damn_river]

when you give the flop, you don't give suites. assumming no flush draws... pot odds look good, but what could he have that wouldn't have you beat here? he has made 8 times the buy in.

lay it down.

damn river

[kongo_totte]

Yeah, sry. It was a rainbow flop

reflop, I really think KQ is a good enough hand to isolate him with, concerning he frequently raises w/ T 8o and worse. Of course, even maniacs catch aces, but he is more likely to have 2 cards lower than mine.

Well, maybe I should have folded. I called though.
Turn and river ragged and I got shown A J for middle pair.

And concerning his stack size, I think it's obvious it had nothing to do with skill, with stats like that. He had lost all but $50 after an hour, most if it to me.

[kongo_totte]

Well, actually, the more I think about it, I don’t think I should have folded.

Let’s say he has AK 30% and 2-pair/ a set 30% and the nut straight or 10% (I think that’s a bit high since I don’t have him for a guy who would overbet the nuts). That means I’m ahead 30% of the time.

Additionally, if he has A K I have 8 outs, if he has J T I have 13 outs.

The pot is 13.5+10+30=53.5 and I have 29 to call. I have to win 36% of the time.

Against AK I will win 28%
Against T J I will win 48.5%

Considering I already have him beat about 30% of the time, I think it’s an easy call.

[pilamsolo]

If he's as nuts as you say, I think it's a call. He could easily have a worse K, QJ, QT, or even just a lone Q if he's a real gambler. Pair+gutshot also seems likely. There's a decent amount of money in the pot already, so I think it's a clear call.

-Solo

[creedofhubris]

It's a close decision, but slightly -EV, if you need to catch him.

It's + EV if you think you might be ahead.

[Tilt]

Well, its tough to argue with results, clearly you made the right read here.

But in general, against LAG's like this I think you can pick better spots than KQ on this board. Its not an awful spot to take a stand, but its not great.

Out LAGing the LAG is tough to do. I see so many people folding to maniacs only finally challenge them with weak hands on scary boards only to get their stacks washed away in the LAG tide.

[BK_]

the isolation raise is a bit pointless. others at the table know he is lag and will be calling with worse hands than normal. your raise will fold them out and you will miss value vs lower kings and queens if a k or q flops. you would like to isolate if you had mid pockets or something like that

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
the isolation raise is a bit pointless. others at the table know he is lag and will be calling with worse hands than normal. your raise will fold them out and you will miss value vs lower kings and queens if a k or q flops. you would like to isolate if you had mid pockets or something like that

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, normally I would agree, but this guy was so weak/easy to read post flop that every time i went HU againt him it would look like this: if I was the PF-raiser I'd bet and he'd fold. If he was the PF raiser he'd bet, Id re-raise, he'd fold. So, going HU against this guy was easy money. That is really why his re-raise on the flop concerned me. He hadn't done that before, altough I don't think he would overbet the nuts. I really don't think he picked up poker yesterday, I think he has played for a while and knows the basics, it's just that he thinks he can beat the game with his maniac-style, and who knows, maybe he can usually. A player who doesn't know anything could easally over bet the pot like that, as could a really good player. I don't put him in any of those categories though. And against anything but the nuts, or a set I think the call is good. The only thing I have to worry about really is AK, which he will have sometimes and won't have sometimes.

Point: I still think the call was good.