Very Very Simple $15/30 Situation

bobbyi · #1 12-07-2004, 04:22 PM

This may have been discussed at some time before, but if so, I missed it.

You sit down in a live $15/30 game, let the blinds go by and then post in the cutoff. The game is somewhat tight and the button and blinds are decent, but not great. It is folded to you. What hands do you raise here to attack the blind? Note that you are effectively risking $15 to win $40. (This isn't quite true because if you check, you still have some equity in that $40, so by stealing you aren't really doing $40 better than by checking, and when your raise is called, you will sometimes win anyway, so you aren't giving up a full $15 here when your steal fails). At this price, you can clearly raise with much lighter hands than if you were folded to in the cutoff and weren't a poster. Just how low are your raising standards here? Thanks.

Buckshot · #2 12-07-2004, 04:31 PM

I would raise if I were new and the table is as you describe every time.

~stephen

kidpoker22 · #3 12-07-2004, 04:32 PM

My father always told me when he posts in the cutoff he won't even look at is cards if the action is folded around to him. It's an automatic raise w/ any hand. That's his philosophy. I dunno'...I think it has some merit as it serves as nice advertising if you get to show a piece of cheese down.

schroedy · #4 12-07-2004, 05:46 PM

This play is becoming too widely known to have much advertising value.

I am definitely raising with any paint and any pair, however. And a few others (T9, 98, etc.). Mostly I want to have a hand that might be best, unimproved, heads up so the lower suited connectors are not that enticing.

bobbyi · #5 12-07-2004, 06:18 PM

Even though you might raise any two cards (which was actually my intuition and is why I asked), it is ridiculuous to literally not look at your cards. You virtually always want your opponents to fold here, so there's no reason to let them know that you're raising blind. You are much more likely to get caller or, worse, reraised if they know that you hold random cards.

na4bart · #6 12-07-2004, 08:11 PM

This is a raise or fold situation, clearly you can't fold, therefore a raise is the correct play with any two cards. Don't look at your hand (but appear to) and raise. For some odd reason players will tend to give respect to a raise in this situation (from a posted blind) than is usually the case. Have picked up many blinds this way and sometimes when you do get called, you look down and find a hand or just outflop/out play your opponet.

oscark · #7 12-07-2004, 08:30 PM

I find at Party this play is widely known and you will be played back at a lot. I greatly lower my raising standards, but think raising any two is negative EV.

Oscar

bobbyi · #8 12-07-2004, 09:18 PM

"Any two" was my intuition here, but I've never actually heard the topic discussed, so it seemed good to do a check up. Would those of you who raise any two also do so in a game with a 1/2 blind structure? This is actually part of a bigger issue for me: I'm not sure how 2/3 blinds should affect my stealing standards since, even though there is more money to steal, I'm also less likely to succeed. Thanks.

vmacosta · #9 12-08-2004, 01:06 AM

I've done a fair amount of thinking on this one and I've come to a working conclusion that in the midlimit CA B&M games I play in, stealing is almost never the right word for this play. 90%+ the time with a 2/3 chip structure, one and usually both of the blinds play with me (and don't forget about the button!) and most of my opponents are familiar with this play. So I make this play because I might hit a flop or be able to steal on a later street. Thus, I tend to make this raise only if one of the followig three conditions are met...
1) I have fairly good control over at least 2/3 opponents left (that is, their style of play is familiar to me).
2) The button is telegraphing a fold
3) I have something I would have played 4-handed anyway.
Now this ends up being about 70-90% of the time but not quite always. If the game is 1/3 chip blind, indicating a tight game, I raise with any two every time. 2/4 or 1/2 chips is maybe somewhere in between, i.e. if conditions 1 and 2 aren't met, I sometimes muck two cards below a J that aren't suited and more than 3-gapped (T5o and worse).

kidpoker22 · #10 12-08-2004, 03:29 PM

I agree that this play isn't a "classic" steal move. I also agree with the poster who said that it was really a raise/fold situation. I think checking is a very weak play per your future table image. Yes, you are very unlikely to steal the blinds in 2/3 blind structure like 15/30 but then again your opponents are going to be more likely to not want to play back at you because you they don't have a decent line on your play b/c it's your first hand. I say raise always. I don't think - vs. +EV question. It's a situation that arises so rarely...especially in a game like 15/30 which is notorious for being looser than a 10/20 game...that I don't think it would have a substaintial effect on your overall EV.

KP22