back to basics: a simple turn decision

[chio]

SB is your typical loose passive fish, will call 2 bets cold with ANY 2 preflop

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero...</font>

given the board, the pot, my opponents, and my position, would you check or bet here?

and how much do you think the EV of these 2 decisions differs in the long run?

thanks

[trumpman84]

I'd say bet the turn, fold to a check-raise and take the free showdown if checked to you again on the river.

[RunDownHouse]

Fold the turn to a check-raise? That sounds horrible, care to explain why?

[Danenania]

I'd bet and don't think it's very close. I have no reason to think I'm beat yet and the K should scare them more than it scares me. If behind I have outs and I don't think you get checkraised here too often.

[joker122]

i think i'd check because it's not likely i still have the best hand, but i have outs.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
If behind I have outs and I don't think you get checkraised here too often.


[/ QUOTE ]

if you are behind and have outs you must check. basic "checking with outs" stuff from HPFAP. also, if you aren't getting checkraised on boards like these often what board are you getting checkraised on?

[Danenania]

Right but I don't think he is behind often enough to check. If someone shows me a K then of course I'm not betting.

"it's not likely i still have the best hand"

I disagree with this not HPFAP.

[joker122]

i missed the read on SB. i think that def. swings this into a bet.

[Trix]

Betting is probably better, you could easily be ahead of SB and since UTG just check-called the flop, him too, so you want a showdown, so might aswell bet turn as you can valuebet river when you like.

I dont know how much better it is, probably .2-5 BB or so.

[Danenania]

Well, SB is a "loose passive fish". Don't think he's too much of a CR threat given he could have called both preflop and flop with anything. That leaves UTG who limped preflop then check-called the flop and checked the turn. This would be a pretty tricky way to play 2-pair on this board if he plans to c/r. It's certainly possible but not likely imo. I also think a naked K usually bets out or check/calls. A naked Q is now unlikely to c/r because of the K. This leaves sets and straights, 88, TT, J9, AJ, and I simply don't fear these hands enough to check.