PP 5/10 River Value bet?

[krishanleong]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5.
Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Button checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, Button folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 6.50 BB, between UTG and Hero.</font>
Third pot in a row, I've raised preflop and won without showing down. Villian is 40/4 with postflop agression of 3. I think my line is pretty standard but after the fact, I think I might have an easy value bet. Chime in.

Krishan

[JrJordan]

Almost an identical hand to one of mine earlier today. I say go for the value bet. It's certainly possible he has the A, but you think you would hear from him on the flop or turn with a raise, especially because he's pretty aggressive postflop. More likely is a missed flush, which he'll fold to a bet, or a Q which he'll call one bet. I think the chance of a Q is greater than an A, so the value bet's +EV here.

[krishanleong]

Mostly bumping and looking for more replies. Do you think that a postflop agression of 3 would play back at me at some point in the hand. Also, the flop is uncoordinated. It seems likely that UTG is on a small made hand. Or am I being results oriented?

Krishan

[lostinthought]

You're obvioulsy not pushing off any ace on this hand, although you haven't met any resistance, so your kings are probably good.

with an aggro. factor of 3, why not try to check and induce a worse hand to bet?

sometimes he/she will check through, but often smaller hands that haven't improved will fold to the river bet here.. ?

[krishanleong]

I have position. Looks like the converter messed up. I apologise for the confusion. I have position the entire hand. I opened from MP.

[lostinthought]

[ QUOTE ]
I have position. Looks like the converter messed up. I apologise for the confusion. I have position the entire hand. I opened from MP.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah it puts you in the SB

ok,

yeah

easy value bet.

[stoxtrader]

I like value betting the river for sure. given the way you play it, I like a check on the turn to induce a bluff on the river more than betting the turn and checking behind on the river...but its close I think.

[jac394]

I'm not 100% sure I make a bet on the river here. Depends what kind of read I think villain has on me. If this is the third pot in a row I've raised pre-flop without showing down, I may want to show my winner here, so they don't think I'm always raising just to raise or steal. This allows me to be aggressive in later hands (short term only - many PP'ers have no long term memory), and probably win extra bets at that time. I'm also not sure your value bet will get called unless the villian has a Q. I think you are giving up the possibility of one big bet, but will be able to make it up, and then some in later hands.

Just my two-cents

[Benjamin]

Keep on betting. Very unlikely to be raised on the river, it seems, given the way it's gone. And w/ high postflop aggression, seems likely an ace would have popped it on the flop or turn. Looks like call down mode with an underpair to the ace to me.

stoxtrader wrote: [ QUOTE ]
I like value betting the river for sure. given the way you play it, I like a check on the turn to induce a bluff on the river more than betting the turn and checking behind on the river...but its close I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate giving a free river card to a gut shot or Qx ... lots of people will take one off with a gutshot, but fold on the turn ... giving them an extra card free seems bad.

... I realize you said you like the river value bet, and assume you would prefer to bet the whole way, just saying I don't like your proposed alternate line.

B.

[krishanleong]

Villian shows QTo and MHIG. I feel like this is an easy river bet. Everyone here seems to agree. I was worried I might be results oriented.

Krishan