SSHE Book Club Discussion - Part Three: Postflop Concepts (1st Half)

[MEbenhoe]

Alright we're finally into Postflop Concepts, the part that really makes this book as valuable as it is. The sections from the first half that we'll be discussing in this one are:

Counting Outs
Finding Hidden Outs
Evaluating the Flop: Made Hands
Evaluating the Flop: Drawing Hands

The counting outs section is very valuable. In loose low limit games it can especially hurt you if you don't know how to count your outs properly. Being able to identify partial outs, backdoor draws, redraws, and hidden outs is a big part of being a complete poker player. Also, I think the section on outs shows how valuable of a skill hand-reading is. For many of these concepts you need to be able to put your opponent(s) on a potential range of hands, so that you are able to properly determine where you are in the hand and what type of outs you have.

So we're on way time to kick up your thoughts, questions, whatever you've got to say.

[cwsiggy]

How much does everyone discount their flush outs if it's two to a flush on the flop and there are 4-5 people seeing it? 6-7 outs instead of 9?? more if there is paint on the board??? The reason I ask is I assume there are others looking for their flush draws. I do realize that when calculating the math, if you can't see the cards, then you assume 9 left but still......

[Luv2DriveTT]

You do not have to discount your flush outs in this scenario. You still have 9 unseen cards that will help your hand out of 47 unseen cards, there is not enough information to assume that any of these cards are being held by another low limit player. They could be going after a different draw altogether, or perhaps already have a high pair and they wish to play it safely (which SSHE teaches us is a big mistake that many low limit players make), or perhaps they are already holding two cards of the same suit, its impossible to know.

BUT I have been pondering a similar yet more advanced situation recently. The following comes from a hand posted by Shadow29 in the microlimits forum. I was hoping for a greater responce, but alas it never got one.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]

How many outs do you think Hero has in this situation? Should this be a scenario where it is wise to discount flush card outs? Does Hero have the odds to call? I think Hero does not, what do you think? Ed???? Are you listening???

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
You do not have to discount your flush outs in [the multiway pot] scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, to an extent. One very clear teaching of the book is that you discount outs when you're not sure the hand they'll make you will win the pot. If you're drawing to any flush there's a chance you may make the flush and not win the pot. Your flush card may pair the board, or if your draw is not to the nuts then someone else may be drawing to a higher flush. Neither of these considerations warrants a huge discount in hold 'em.* In the first case, sets are fairly rare, as are successful 4-out draws with two pair, so your flush retains a lot of value. In the second case, you already hold two flush cards so if three come out on the board, that leaves only 8 to be distributed among opponents' hands or left in the stub. While it obviously happens that two players draw at the same flush, it's not terribly frequent.

I'll defer to more experienced players for a better number, but in say a 4- or 5-way pot I'd probably count 8.5 outs to the flush if your draw is to the nuts (presumably two river cards would both pair the board and make your flush, so call them 0.75 outs each) and 8 for a non-nut flush.

But the original question was whether to count these differently with more opponents in the pot. I think it's obvious why more players in the pot means less chance your flush holds up, and hence fewer effective outs.

But i'm eager to hear other opinions.

---
*In Omaha, each of these considerations would dramatically discount the value of your "tainted outs". Flushes rarely win on a paired board in low-limit multiway pots. If you're drawing to a non-nut flush, it's quite likely that the nut flush is out there. But we're not discussing an Omaha book so i mention this only by way of contrast.

[Luv2DriveTT]

[/ QUOTE ]I'll defer to more experienced players for a better number, but in say a 4- or 5-way pot I'd probably count 8.5 outs to the flush if your draw is to the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

The point of counting outs in this example is to IMPROVE your hand, not to improve to the nut hand (although thats what we all hope for of course!). With 4 cards of the same suit showing there are 9 cards unaccounted for. Essentially your reccomendation is to remove 1/2 card? I'm sorry, but I don't agree with your rational, and there is no relevent example that I recall of discounting flush draws in SSHE that helps your argument.

Any others care to comment? This thread is a bit bare considering the number of people who have purchased SSHE.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[AKQJ10]

Suffice it to say, you and i took much different interpretations of how SSH treats counting outs.

My understanding is that in all cases, you want to count "equivalent outs", that is, the number of cards that will improve your hand weighted by the probability that your accordingly improved hand will win the pot. That's not the way all or even most authors treat out-counting, but if i understood SSH that's how Miller, Sklansky, and Malmuth treat it.

If you hold

[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q

on a board of

[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9

then you're drawing at a nut flush. The [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2, 3, 5, 6, 8, ten, and J will make you the nut flush and win the pot. That's 7.0 effective outs.

The [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 and [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 will make your flush and pair the board. The number of effective outs associated with these two cards is entirely dependent on how likely you judge it that a full house is out against you. My estimate of 0.75 outs each may be low, but they're not worth the full 1.0, at least not if i'm remotely understanding the material in the book on counting outs.

In fairness the authors acknowledge that you can't calculate a full weighted average each time at the table. This example is very straightforward; you know you have 9 cards that improve you and a remote chance of a full house, hence just less than 9 effective outs. In most pots that's plenty of information because you're usually getting better than 8.5/46 to stay in.

I guess time will tell whether i'm the only one who inferred this material on counting outs, and therefore whether i'm adding something to SSH that isn't there. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[cwsiggy]

Then again - would any of us really fold if we calculated using the discount method 8 flush outs instead of nine and the pot was only laying us 7.9 or less to 1???? I can see how one might seriously cheat onesself out of a possible pot only because one incorrectly put a suit in someone's hand at the turn

[AKQJ10]

Fair point, but the problem there is the inaccuracy of the estimate, not the quality of the decision based on the estimate.

Don't misunderstand me, i'm not arguing for folding small flushes getting 8.5 to 1! Carson (and others I'm sure) makes the point i restated above, that if you have two suited cards and three more are on the board, chances are great that no one else has two more, let alone a higher one than both yours.

[cwsiggy]

Actually - the original question was about 2 on the board not three- with lots of people in. If you have already made your flush, then you only have to worry about being outkicked if you don't have the nuts.

I'm suprised discounting possible suits in other's hands wasn't really addressed considering they did address partial outs. Maybe, in loose games, you just can't assume someone else also has two to the same flush in the hole very often and others probably wouldn't stay involved in a pot with only backdoor flush unless combined with other hands to put them on.

[Luv2DriveTT]

I'd like to add that the only reason to discount in the scenario I posted above is because you may be drawing dead. You cannot remove cards from the deck, but you can discount your outs to account for possibility that improving your hand may still be drawing dead.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]