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#1
12-04-2004, 10:33 PM
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QTs in BB, scare card
UTG 71/5 Not enough stats for agg factor
MP 81/5 LP-P Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks. Flop: (4 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, SB folds. Turn: (3.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font> <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP calls, Hero ? Fold turn? Call turn and fold river unimproved? Call turn and river? Throw something? 
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#2
12-04-2004, 11:05 PM
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Re: QTs in BB, scare card
I would fold the turn. You're most likley beat and I only see you winning if you improve to trips or two-pair on the river, which wont happen very often.
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#5
12-05-2004, 06:05 AM
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Re: QTs in BB, scare card
Too many heads not thinking it through... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
Consider your outs: 4 x K to the nut straight (K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] tainted with MP calling along), 2 x Q (ditto Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), 3 x T (ditto T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). Up to 9 outs, 3 tainted, you need to discount the possibility of being against 2-pair (the only likely one being A7). UTG limped, which makes me feel he does not have AQ or AJ (though your stats make this quite possible). MP calling along looks like a draw, the most likely/obvious being [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush, but there are a lot of other hands chooks call along with here too. The pot is 7.5 BB when it is back to you, while not huge, it is not tiny either. You could be facing a weakish A hitting top pair and a calling station with any Q, J or 7, this means you must call. Or UTG has 2-pair or KT and caller has flush draw, this looks bad and you fold. What information do you have that allows you to decide one or the other? If UTG only ever raises with 2-pair, easy fold with probably only 3 outs. If this is a single A then you certainly have odds to call this bet with a discounted 6 outs. There are spots I would call here, either depending on reads or what read I want. Given the passive nature of UTG, the pot size, the tainted outs, it pushes this to fold but not by much. There is value in knowing what UTG limps with, what he raises with, what MP call with (fairly obvious though). Uncertainty leads to mistakes, if you think a clearer read on UTG will help you pick up BB later then seriously consider a call here. If MP has a habit of making it to SD and always calling, then you get to see their cards without paying any more BB, so you get the info anyway. At $1/$2 however, you probably don't get that much useful information from calling down (which is more about profiling aggressive or tricky players IMO). Fold is OK and probably marginally +EV here. Calling would not be terrible.
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#6
12-05-2004, 07:53 AM
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Re: QTs in BB, scare card
no way do you have 9 outs
You are drawing dead most times. What is the best possible result for you? A king? might be sharing the pot. A queen? you could be sharing or behind (2 overcards to your kicker) When you are ahead you wont collect much and when you are behind you are way behind and pay off a lot. Easy fold
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#8
12-05-2004, 04:37 PM
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Re: QTs in BB, scare card
I did not say he had 9 outs, he potentially has 9 outs and then I discounted. Making posts with bland statements like "you don't have outs" or "easy fold the pot is small" actually don't help people very much. Explanations help a lot. Start with the facts, and them introduce probabilities and assumptions, then make your reads.
Just because you are raised on the Turn, it means you are against 2-pair or better? Nonsense, even at Party $1/$2 I saw plenty of chooks raise in this spot with weak Aces. [ QUOTE ] You are drawing dead most times. [/ QUOTE ] Please explain how, from 1 raise you can determine this fact? The big word here is explain. There is not enough information in this post to make any such definitive reads on opponents. Bland responses dressed up as categoric answers do not help people learn. Only by considering the possibilities and your options can you learn to think about situations in a balanced and informed way. You may think this is an easy fold, well bully for you, but I don't and neither does Hero (hence the post). I still think, given the limited info on his opponents folding is probably the best option, but it is nowhere near as clear as you are painting, based on what we know of his opponents. How do his opponents play post-flop, do you know? I seem to remember seeing: [ QUOTE ] Not enough stats for agg factor [/ QUOTE ] Very limited info on UTG. MP calls along because MP is loose passive. [ QUOTE ] When you are ahead you wont collect much and when you are behind you are way behind and pay off a lot. [/ QUOTE ] Just how do you derive this? Hero has to consider calling 1 bet here, and can fold the River unimproved. I do not think 1 BB qualifies as "losing a lot when behind". If Hero hits a non-flush straight or trips, he probably gets 2 BB more on the River, and might even get a CR in (doubtful though, with a 4-straight on the board). With 7.5 BB in the pot, Hero has enough odds to call with 6 outs, but not by much.
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#9
12-05-2004, 04:50 PM
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Re: QTs in BB, scare card
Cold calls from chooks gives you more reason to call. It's cold-calls from good players you need to worry about.
Yes, you do need to respect raises at $1/$2 from non-maniacs, but when you have odds to draw to a big hand, you should not be folding. Respecting a raise means calling 1 more bet (in such a circumstance where you have odds to draw a better hand) and check/folding the River unimproved.
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#10
12-05-2004, 07:02 PM
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Re: QTs in BB, scare card
I thought I made my point, I mentioned the hands you are likely up against.
Drawing dead to KT, a common loose player hand. When you do make your hand you dont get paid off because if one player has a T then you share when a K hits. If a Queen comes on the river you share with another Queen at best because there are 2 overcards to your kicker. A Ten isnt much good for you because it makes a straight for any King. Lets suppose hero calls and makes trips on the river, whats his action? Bet out or checkraise? Hero bets UTG raises hmm now what? pay him off? Hero checks UTG bets Hero raises UTG 3bets? pay him off or fold? What about if you make your one card straight? Hero bets UTG calls MP raises (only if he shares the pot or beats you with a flush). Hero may have 6 outs but he will share the pot a lot of the time so they are worth even less. Your implied odds suck here because your nut hand (one card straight) is so obvious that you will get no action. One more thing, I will assume that a loose/passive preflop player is more than likely loose/passive postflop so you should fear that raise. Middle Limit Holdem explains one card straight draws and these kinds of situations pretty well.
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