pinnacle's lines

[jerome baker]

the nba lines for 12/4/04 are:

minn -3.5 +117 lac +3.5 -130
-3.0 +108 +3.0 -120
-2.5 -101 +2.5 -109
-2.0 -111 +2.0 -101
-1.5 -120 +1.5 +108

i was shocked to see the number of options you have in picking a line. (i was at wsex, it was the standard -110
and pick your side.)


1. what are the things to look for in these lines?
2. should u follow the money, or go against the flow of money? (generally speaking)
3. or maybe it doesnt really matter? u just got to pick the right team/ be on the right side?
4. any additional comments would help
5. thx

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] what i consider significant..pinny is less juice than -110..so i do bet there..but beware...dumb bookies do not last long..understanding pinny's moves of odds and spreads is quite a sports betting education; kinda on the job training..i do not like to bet against pinny, but i do not think just going with the pinny line moves works either..good luck

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[bugstud]

excellent point. When intertops runs -110 and pinny runs -103 on the game line, who has to be right more often to not lose?

This is why you sometimes can get excellent lines at these places.

[MicroBob]

exactly.
you need to make determinations on your own as to where the line 'should' be and then if you find a book that is offering enough of a departure from that one way or the other then go ahead and bet it. And get the best price you can with it.

Don't just bet a game because it is a few cents better at Pinny than it is at some other book.
Just because Pinny's price is better does not necesdsarily a real advantage in the game you are looking at and you would still be better not betting it in the first place.

Bet it because YOU think there is a real difference from the line they are offering....and then chose Pinnacle if it happens to have a better price than other places (which it sometimes does).

[eggzz]

I don't think Cleveland has a shot at beating NE tomorrow,(but I do think they will cover the number) but I'm curious as to what Pinnacle's money line is on this game compared to Intertops. Last I looked it was -700/+450. Can someone post the Pinnacle ML for me for comparison purposes between the two books? Thanks.

p.s. I assume I need to have an account there to check out their lines, otherwise I would go their and search for it myself.

[MicroBob]

you don't need an acct to check the lines on pinny.

the NE/CLE ML is -575/+525.

I rarely find a line on intertops that is better than Pinny....although I have admittedly stopped looking for the most part. But the difference in the ML's on this one game pretty much says it all I think.
Fairly similar to the differences I noticed on MLB ML's when I was looking at both sites (that is....it's not even close enough to check back).

[eggzz]

Thanks Bob. Wow. What the heck am I doing betting at Intertops? How square is that. Good thing I'm just a casual bettor, you guys would laugh at what 1 unit is to me, but that is just wrong, too much disparity between sites that you would think should be more competitive with one another.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
What the heck am I doing betting at Intertops?

[/ QUOTE ]


That's a good question.
I think their lines are frequently the worst when I compare 4 different sites.


[ QUOTE ]
you guys would laugh at what 1 unit is to me

[/ QUOTE ]


me too.
and i bet my unit is smaller than your unit!! (LOL)

That shouldn't stop you from trying to do it right though.
Exactly the same as a fairly new who is posting a .01/.02 hand on the micro-limits forum.
regardless of the limit, they are striving to play the hand correctly.


I'm not ashamed by how little my betting unit is on sports.
Although it does lead to me betting too many games 'for fun' and not taking it seriously enough.
But we're trying to learn correct handicapping strategies here....and one of those strategies includes line-shopping at various sites (or at least at 2 or 3 different sites).



I even ordered Stanford Wong's Sharp Sports Betting even though I'm not betting enough to take it THAT seriously.
I'm ordering it because I suspect the math it contains will be fairly interesting and if I am going to do something I at least want to make an effort to do it part-way correctly.

BTW - Wong's sports-betting book was rated a 9 by Mason. Wong is REALLY good at advantage-gambling (blackjack, video-poker, even advantageous situations that arise in slots of all things).

[judgesmails]

A friend tracked all of Pinnacle's opening and closing lines for NFL games in the seasons 2000 - 2002 and found that you could have hit 55% by laying the exttra juice and betting with Pinnacle. I will try to get him to post his spreadsheet here.