Flopped nuts on a steal, what do I do?

ZootMurph · #1 12-04-2004, 12:46 AM

I'm in MP1. Blinds 100/200. I'm one of the short stacks at the table with 4500 (2 smaller than me). I open raise for 700 with 63o. 2 callers and BB come along. Flop 475 rainbow. Just the opposite of my luck yesterday...

I was all ready to check/fold with all those callers so I checked, before I realized what I had. The nice callers bet and reraised for me (600 - 1500), and BB folded. Now should I smooth call?

mntbikr15 · #2 12-04-2004, 12:53 AM

Interesting.

U dont have the nuts, someone called ur raise with 68 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Sounds like one of them has a set and maybe the other an overpair. I call and lead the turn(if it doesnt pair the board), with about 3/4 of the pot.

Edit-just realized ur stack size, call and push the turn.

EnderW27 · #3 12-04-2004, 01:02 AM

You're one of the short stacks and you're stealing? From middle position? on 6-3o? In other words you raised 3.5x the BB with at least 4 stacks that cover you still left to act. You'll have to forgive me if I politely say that's not the smartest poker move I've seen.

ZootMurph · #4 12-04-2004, 01:05 AM

Argh... it isn't the nuts, you're right, LOL.

Complete stack sizes... MP2, the initial better, has 4k at the beginning of the hand. CO, the raiser, has 9800 before the hand starts

TStoneMBD · #5 12-04-2004, 01:16 AM

yah i dont like the steal either, but after you checked the flop your opponents are going to have to put you on aces or kings after they see youre hand isnt worth a fold. i would call here hoping the initial bettor comes along and push on the turn like the previous poster advised.

Potowame · #6 12-04-2004, 01:26 AM

I think it is as good a time to steal than any, lets look at this from someone looking to call his steal. He is short stacked but not in desperation mode , his is in middle position, he seems to be a good player, so the likley hood of a steal here is near 25-30%.

In other words take the thinking to another level, as in what do they think I would have in this spot. You said in the manner of your response that, you wouldn't think it would be a steal.

As for the hand, The only thing that bothers me about pushing the turn is that a card may come off that makes it hard for him to call with here. I might think about trying to get it all-in right now if you think he will call. Possible 77- JJ , set is playing back at you here, and will more than likly pay you off. I also think the pot is big enough to try and take down right now.

ZootMurph · #7 12-04-2004, 01:37 AM

Rest of what happened below in white... in case you'd like to form an opinion before seeing the results...

<font color="white"> I call, MP2 pushes, CO pushes, I call. MP2 has a set of 4s, CO has a pair of 8s. Turn and river are safe, MHIG. Got a LOT of complaints... After that, CO was constantly reraising any time I raised in front of him. Finally, he was down to 6k, I had 16k. He raises my blind minimum (200/400/a25), I smooth call with AQo. Flop is TA7 two spades (my ace is spade). I check, he bets 600, I raise to 2k, he calls. I know I have him beat here. Turn is 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I push him all in, he insta-calls and shows A4:heart)... I start laughing at his terrible play until I see the river 4. I finally take him out with 99 vs his 22 later.</font>

mntbikr15 · #8 12-04-2004, 01:45 AM

Well then, they did ALL the betting for u.

How nice.

Suprised 88 was willing to take it that far.......wait wait no im not.

Glad the board didnt pair on ya.

EnderW27 · #9 12-04-2004, 01:50 AM

Yeah, most players, including myself, would think he has a legitimate hand. But the problem is this: any hand that calls him will be beating him and he's going to have to improve. Any hand that raises him forces him to fold. Any hand that calls him gives better odds to the next person to call them both and they both will be beating him.

The reason you steal in late position is so that you only have to get two people to fold, not half the table. If anyone calls, at most you have to beat two people, not half the table.
It's the same mathematics that says "don't bluff on the river into 5 people." It's never +ev.

TStoneMBD · #10 12-04-2004, 01:56 AM

yah i would probably put him on a legit hand here... and im not saying that stealing in this position is necessarily incorrect, but SIX THREE OFF? youre going to raise pf, and check fold. or... raise pf, bet the flop and hope he missed. if he wanted to steal with 56s then you have my blessings, but flopping straights with this hand may prove difficult.